地震地质 ›› 2011, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 865-876.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.04.011

• 活动构造 • 上一篇    下一篇

北祁连山-河西走廊大震危险区预测

邵延秀1,2,3, 袁道阳1,2,3, 曹娜4, 梁明剑5   

  1. 1. 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 兰州 730000;
    2. 中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州科技创新基地, 兰州 730000;
    3. 兰州地球物理国家野外科学观测研究站, 兰州 730000;
    4. 华中科技大学《水电能源科学》编辑部, 武汉 430074;
    5. 四川省地震局, 成都 610041
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-23 修回日期:2011-06-29 出版日期:2011-12-30 发布日期:2012-01-12
  • 作者简介:邵延秀,男,1984年生,2007年毕业于兰州大学地质工程系,2010年在中国地震局兰州地震研究所获理学硕士学位,研究实习员,主要研究方向为新构造运动与地震危险性分析,电话: 0931-8273226,E-mail: shaoyx@geoidea.org。
  • 基金资助:

    中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务专项"祁连山-河西走廊主干活动断裂破裂分段与大震危险区预测"(2010A882)和国家自然科学基金(40872132)共同资助。

SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR NORTHERNQILIANSHAN-HEXI CORRIDOR

SHAO Yan-xiu1,2,3, YUAN Dao-yang1,2,3, CAO Na4, LIANG Ming-jian5   

  1. 1. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Lanzhou Base of Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. Lanzhou National Geophysical Observatory, Lanzhou 73000, China;
    4. 《Water Resources and Power》 Editorial Department, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;
    5. Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China
  • Received:2011-05-23 Revised:2011-06-29 Online:2011-12-30 Published:2012-01-12

摘要:

以青藏块体北部的北祁连山-河西走廊地震构造带为研究对象,在系统收集整理该区主干活动断裂新活动性特征、断裂滑动速率、历史地震及古地震资料的基础上,结合现今地震活动性,采用地震空区、空段识别方法和地震活动b值空间图像扫描方法,分析了研究区内历史地震及b值的分布特征。结果显示,该区的榆木山北缘断裂离逝时间较长,应力积累程度较高,具有发生大震的构造条件,其未来大震危险性最高,值得高度关注。其次,该区的嘉峪关断裂也存在地震空段和低b值段,也应引起重视。

关键词: 北祁连山, 河西走廊, 活动断裂, b值, 地震空区, 榆木山北缘断裂, 嘉峪关断裂

Abstract:

In recent years,many big earthquakes(M≥7) struck China and other nations.These big earthquakes may indicate that the earth is in a globally seismic active period.Therefore,in order to mitigate future earthquake disasters,the assessment of future big earthquake risk for major active boundary faults has been done as an important approach for mitigation.In this paper,our focus area is Northern Qilianshan-Hexi Corridor locating in northeastern of Qinghai-Tibet plateau.We collected and summarized the active faults' data sets systematically,e.g.geometrical characteristic,slip rate,rupture segmentation,latest rupture event and paleo-earthqakes.And based on these data sets,we use the methods of seismic gap identification and b value mapping to analyze the characteristics of historical earthquakes and b value.And then,high risk zones or faults of big earthquakes were identified synthetically.We think the Northern Yumushan Fault has the most probability of generating big earthquake in the future.Because the elapse time from the last event is long and b value along it is remarkably low,which betokens high stress.Meanwhile, attention should be paid too to the Jiayuguan Fault,where seismic gap and low b value zone exist too.

Key words: Northern Qilianshan, Hexi Corridor, active fault, b value image, seismic gap, northern Yumushan Fault, Jiayuguan Fault

中图分类号: