Based on the statistical results of 86 earthquakes with magnitude≥5.0 in the middle section of the north-south seismic belt and its surrounding regions since 1973, the types of earthquake sequences and the spatial distribution characteristics have been studied. Main conclusions are drawn as follows: 1)The sequence types of moderate and strong earthquakes in the study area are dominated by mainshock-aftershock sequence type(MAT), followed by multiple main-shock type(MMT)and least the isolated earthquake type(IET)sequence. In the same sequence type, with the increase of earthquake magnitude, the proportion of the MAT sequence increased, while the number of MMT and IET gradually decreased, M≥7 earthquakes are mainly of MAT, and there are no IET earthquakes. Among the different rupture types, the MAT earthquakes are the most in the thrust-type, while the MMT earthquakes are more likely to occur in the strike-slip and the normal-fault earthquakes. 2)There is a relatively good linear relationship between the mainshock-aftershock sequence type earthquakes and the maximum aftershock magnitude of the MAT and MMT sequences; the largest aftershock of most earthquakes mostly occurred in 15 days after the mainshock, the largest aftershock of MAT mainly occurred within 3 days after the mainshock, the largest aftershock of MMT earthquakes mainly occurred within 12 days after the mainshock, and the largest aftershock of IET earthquakes mostly occurred on the day of the earthquake. 3)The spatial distribution of seismic sequence shows that the MAT earthquake distribution range is relatively wide, the MMT earthquakes are mainly concentrated in Batang-Litang, Mabian-Zhaotong, Songpan area in Sichuan Province and Yunlong, Yao 'an, Longling and nearby areas in northwest Yunnan Province. IET earthquakes are more likely to occur in Ganzi-Yushu fault zone, the northwestern segment of Xianshuihe fault zone and in Sichuan Basin. 4)The distribution of seismic sequence types in the middle section of the north-south seismic belt and its adjacent areas may be related to the geological structure, historical seismic activity and the crustal stress in this region. The distribution of seismic sequence types also reflects the tectonic movement and dynamic environment in this region.

On the basis of summarizing the circulation characteristics and mechanism of earthquakes with magnitude 7 or above in continental China, the spatial-temporal migration characteristics, mechanism and future development trend of earthquakes with magnitude above 7 in Tibetan block area are analyzed comprehensively. The results show that there are temporal clustering and spatial zoning of regional strong earthquakes and large earthquakes in continental China, and they show the characteristics of migration and circulation in time and space. In the past 100a, there are four major earthquake cluster areas that have migrated from west to east and from south to north, i.e. 1)Himalayan seismic belt and Tianshan-Baikal seismic belt; 2)Mid-north to north-south seismic belt in Tibetan block area; 3)North-south seismic belt-periphery of Assam cape; and 4)North China and Sichuan-Yunnan area. The cluster time of each area is about 20a, and a complete cycle time is about 80a. The temporal and spatial images of the migration and circulation of strong earthquakes are consistent with the motion velocity field images obtained through GPS observations in continental China. The mechanism is related to the latest tectonic activity in continental China, which is mainly affected by the continuous compression of the Indian plate to the north on the Eurasian plate, the rotation of the Tibetan plateau around the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, and the additional stress field caused by the change of the earth's rotation speed.
    Since 1900AD, the Tibetan block area has experienced three periods of high tides of earthquake activity clusters(also known as earthquake series), among which the Haiyuan-Gulang earthquake series from 1920 to 1937 mainly occurred around the active block boundary structural belt on the periphery of the Tibetan block region, with the largest earthquake occurring on the large active fault zone in the northeastern boundary belt. The Chayu-Dangxiong earthquake series from 1947 to 1976 mainly occurred around the large-scale boundary active faults of Qiangtang block, Bayankala block and eastern Himalayan syntaxis within the Tibetan block area. In the 1995-present Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series, 8 earthquakes with M_S7.0 or above have occurred on the boundary fault zones of the Bayankala block. Therefore, the Bayankala block has become the main area of large earthquake activity on the Tibetan plateau in the past 20a. The clustering characteristic of this kind of seismic activity shows that in a certain period of time, strong earthquake activity can occur on the boundary fault zone of the same block or closely related blocks driven by a unified dynamic mechanism, reflecting the overall movement characteristics of the block. The migration images of the main active areas of the three earthquake series reflect the current tectonic deformation process of the Tibetan block region, where the tectonic activity is gradually converging inward from the boundary tectonic belt around the block, and the compression uplift and extrusion to the south and east occurs in the plateau. This mechanism of gradual migration and repeated activities from the periphery to the middle can be explained by coupled block movement and continuous deformation model, which conforms to the dynamic model of the active tectonic block hypothesis.
    A comprehensive analysis shows that the Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series, which has lasted for more than 20a, is likely to come to an end. In the next 20a, the main active area of the major earthquakes with magnitude 7 on the continental China may migrate to the peripheral boundary zone of the Tibetan block. The focus is on the eastern boundary structural zone, i.e. the generalized north-south seismic belt. At the same time, attention should be paid to the earthquake-prone favorable regions such as the seismic empty sections of the major active faults in the northern Qaidam block boundary zone and other regions. For the northern region of the Tibetan block, the areas where the earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above are most likely to occur in the future will be the boundary structural zones of Qaidam active tectonic block, including Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone, the northern margin fault zone of western Qinling, the eastern Kunlun fault zone and the Altyn Tagh fault zone, etc., as well as the empty zones or empty fault segments with long elapse time of paleo-earthquake or no large historical earthquake rupture in their structural transformation zones. In future work, in-depth research on the seismogenic tectonic environment in the above areas should be strengthened, including fracture geometry, physical properties of media, fracture activity behavior, earthquake recurrence rule, strain accumulation degree, etc., and then targeted strengthening tracking monitoring and earthquake disaster prevention should be carried out.

On the day Wu-wu of the second month in the second year of Chuyuan period in the reign of Emperor Yuan of the western Han Dynasty, that is, April 17, 47 BC, an earthquake occurred near the county seat of Huandao County, Longxi Prefecture. This earthquake caused serious damages to the city wall, government office buildings and civilian houses in the Huandao county seat, many people died, landslides, ground fracturing and spring gushing, etc. occurred. On the basis of textual research on the historical earthquake data and the field investigation, we affirm that the ancient Huandao county seat locates at the new Wangjia Village of Santai, southeast of Wenfeng Town in Longxi County at present. The ancient Huandao county seat is the most seriously damaged area according to the historical earthquake data, so it should be in the meizoseismal area of this earthquake. The epicenter intensity of this earthquake is about 9~10 degrees, and the magnitude of this earthquake is estimated to be about 7. Considering the intensities of other towns damaged during this earthquake, we draw the isoseismal lines of this earthquake, with its major axis directed NNW. The direction of the major axis of the isoseismal lines and the location of the epicenter are approximately consistent with the strike of the western segment of the Gangu-Wushan secondary fault on the northern margin of western Qinling fault zone. This fault segment has clear evidences of new activity during late Holocene, which are characterized by left-lateral strike-slip faulting with normal components; the fault dips NE and faulted the T₁-T₂ pluvial and alluvial terraces. Up to now, there are some surface deformation traces, such as deeply-incised seismic fault grooves, densely developed structural tensional fractures in the loess stratum, landslides and a series of beaded dolines etc. Combining the results of relocation of small to moderate earthquakes in the research area and comprehensive analysis on their distribution features in plane and profile, we get the results that the causative structure of the 47 BC Longxi earthquake is the western segment of Gangu-Wushan secondary fault on the northern margin of western Qinling fault zone. This fault zone is an important active block boundary fault in the eastern margin of Tibeten block, and has the tectonic condition to generate M ≥ 7 large earthquakes in the past and in the future.

We divide the north margin of Western Qingling Fault zone into six segments on the basis of new geology data,namely,Baoji,Tianshui,Wushan,Zhangxian,Huangxianggou and Guomatan segment from east to west.Each segment not only can rupture independently,but also can rupture together with others.The probability of seismic potential on these six segments and two combination segments is computed with the time-dependent seismic potential probability estimate method.We find from the result that,both the Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments have the biggest probability of rupture in the future; and Tianshui segment is the second.If there will be a combined rupture,it is most likely to happen in Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments,both of which have higher earthquake risk.We also compute b value along the fault zone.The image of b value indicates a high accumulated stress on the Huangxianggou and Tianshui segments.So we suppose that the two areas are the main locations where strong earthquakes may occur in the future.

No moderate and strong earthquake occurred for many years in Wenxian since the M8.0 great earthquake occurring in 1879 A.D. The June 21,2006 Wenxian earthquake with M5.0 occurred in an area where the tectonic setting is complex. Seismic activity level in Wenxian would enhance after the occurrence of this earthquake(M5.0). Since the earthquake did not produce surface rupture zone,it is very difficulty to study the seismogenic fault. However,we can still study the seismogenic fault based on geological map(1∶200 000),remote sensing interpretation,inversion of focal mechanism and seismic sequence precise location method. In order to determine the future seismic risk of the region,the paper intends to analyze the earthquake causative structure by jointly using the remote sensing interpretation,various methods of inversion of focal mechanism,and double-difference earthquake location algorithm. The geological map(1:200 000)shows there are many faults in this area,and the interpretation of remote sensing reveals that only one fault named Shifang-Linjing Fault is active. Focal mechanisms derived from the two methods show that the earthquake is of left-lateral strike-slip and thrust,and the principal compressive stress is in the direction of N60°E. The results of double-difference earthquake locations also support this result. The distribution of aftershocks is related to the thrust faulting. Results of combined analyses show that the Shifang-Linjiang Fault is the seismogenic fault of this earthquake,and the direction of the principal compressive stress is N60°E.

Before the M_S 8.1 West Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake,an orderly evolution of seismicity patterns was observed in the Qinghai-Tibet block:the evolution of seismic gaps showed a time span of several to decades of years and a space span of hundreds to thousands of kilometers,and that of seismic stripes had a time span of several years and a space span of thousands of kilometers.After 1990,the seismic precursory observation networks in Qinghai,Gansu,Sichuan,Xinjiang and Ningxia Provinces and autonomous regions recorded some typical far-field anomalies.These abnormal tendency changes roughly coincided with the formation time of seismogenic gaps and seismic stripes and were distributed in the Qilian Mountains tectonic zone,the East Kunlun tectonic belt,the West Qinling tectonic belt,the north-south tectonic belt and the Tianshan tectonic belt.The far-field anomalies and the spatial-temporal evolution of seismic gaps were complementary and correlated to each other.This article discusses the ordered and phased characteristics in the evolution of the above anomalies with the space-time preparation process of the M_S 8.1 earthquake.