The precursors before earthquakes are very useful to earthquake prediction, and fluid anomalies before earthquakes are very important to precursory observations. This paper reviews the characteristics of hydrochemical ions and well-aquifer permeability anomalies of the Dazhai observation Well in Pu’er, which is in the Yunnan-Southwestern region of China, for all M≥5.5 earthquakes since 2004. We find that both the chemical ions and physical parameters before the Mojiang M5.9 earthquake exhibited the largest magnitude of changes since observation, and the abnormal state was much stronger than that of previous historical earthquakes, but the magnitude of the earthquake was below 6. About 1.5-2a before the M5.9 Mojiang earthquake, the composition of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of the water samples in the Dazhai observation Well showed a significant deviation, accompanied by a continuously increasing concentration of fluoride ions from sources at deeper depths. This might suggest that the deep material in the earthquake source area began to be active. At the same time, starting one year before the earthquake, the phase lag of the water level in the wellhole changed from negative to positive, indicating that the source and pathway of well water recharge have been changed. In addition, around half a year before the earthquake, the continuously observed water chemical ions at shallow depths in the wellhole began to show a dramatic change. Moreover, macroscopic anomalies of hot spring water volume increased sharply before the earthquake, showing a remarkable evolution process from deep to shallow, from background to short-term, and from micro anomalies to macro anomalies before the earthquake. To investigate the causes and mechanisms of this phenomenon, we attempt to discuss the abnormal evolution process before the M5.9 Mojiang earthquake from the aspects of regional deep material activity and regional stress level. The abnormal concentration of the hydrochemical ions and the change of aquifer permeability observed continuously at the Dazhai observation well before the M5.9 Mojiang earthquake were caused by the continuous increase in shear stress in the region, which caused the aquifer to be compressed, resulting in a vertical fluid recharge and ultimately the alternation and mixing of different aquifer water bodies. In addition to being controlled by the continuous increase in regional vertical shear stress, the abnormal formation process was also accompanied by the intense activity of deep-sourced chemical elements such as helium isotope and fluoride ion. The abnormal evolution process showed a remarkably coupled process of migration from deep to shallow, which may be the reason why the shallow ion anomaly before the M5.9 Mojiang earthquake was the most significant among all the observed cases. Therefore, the evolution process of fluid activity starting from the deep and continuously transmitting to the surface with the accumulation of regional stress is essential to the abnormal evolution of the hydrological phenomenon before the M5.9 Mojiang earthquake. The regional stress and the process of deep material activity are the biggest differences between the M5.9 Mojiang earthquake and other historical earthquake cases in the study area, which will be the two main factors to be considered when similar ion changes occur again in the future. Our study provides insight into a comprehensive understanding of the predictive significance of underground fluid anomalies in the Dazhai well and the coupled evolution process of deep-shallow fluid anomalies before the earthquake.
Various studies have reported on temporal changes of seismic velocities in the crust before and after earthquake. New time-lapse seismic tomographic scheme based on double-difference tomography can measure the temporal changes of seismic-wave velocities in the Earth and can offer a higher spatial resolution. The result is less affected by different data distribution and quality in different time periods. On October 7, 2014, an MS6.6 earthquake occurred in Jinggu County, Pu'er City, Yunnan Province, and then on December 6, 2014, two strong aftershocks with magnitude MS5.8 and MS5.9 occurred successively. In order to obtain the high spatial resolution P-wave velocity changes in the hypocenter region of the 2014 Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake, firstly, we used the seismic data in the hypocenter region of the Jinggu earthquake recorded by the Yunnan digital seismic network from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2017 to invert the high-resolution three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure in the hypocenter region of the Jinggu earthquake by combining the absolute and relative arrival times using the double-difference tomography method. The inversion results show that the aftershock sequence is distributed at the junction between P-wave high-velocity anomaly area and low-velocity anomaly area. This may be the reason why the depth distribution of aftershocks is shallow in NW and deep in SE, and the number of aftershocks decreases fast in NW and slow in SE. The faults that intersect the Lancangjiang Fault are in the low-velocity anomaly zone, so the low velocity anomaly may be related to the fluid in the faults. Then, according to the technical route, this 3D velocity structure was taken as the initial model to invert for the 3D velocity structure of the five periods, and the 3D P-wave velocity structures of the five periods were obtained by using double differential tomography. Finally, the three-dimensional P-wave velocity model of the five periods was taken as the initial model and the new time-lapse tomography was used to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the P-wave velocity changes between different periods. In addition, combining the results with the existing geological and geophysical research results, the characteristics and mechanism of P-wave velocity changes are explored, our results indicate that: (1)The maximum decrease in P-wave velocity at the shallow depth near the epicenter of the main earthquake is 0.2%, which occurred two months after the main earthquake and was caused mainly by rock failure. (2)There is a P-wave velocity rising zone at a depth of 5km to 15km which is not affected by the rupture of the main earthquake. The existence of this zone caused the P-wave velocity change in the focal area to be discontinuous in depth. It is speculated that the reason for the existence of this zone is that there is a brittle-ductile transition zone with high-strength and high-resistance medium at this depth range. After the occurrence of the MS5.8 and MS5.9 aftershocks on December 6, the direction of distribution of aftershocks changed significantly, and also the focal depths showed a deepening trend. The distribution of the two strong aftershocks and their aftershocks were mainly located in the brittle-ductile transition zone, thus affecting the medium within a depth range of 5 to 15km, resulting in decrease of P-wave velocity with a 3.8%decline. It shows that the two strong aftershocks above magnitude 5 have an impact on the brittle-ductile transition zone, and the occurrence characteristics of aftershocks are usually consistent with the characteristics of P-wave velocity change. (3)About three years after the Jinggu main earthquake, the amplitude of P-wave velocity increase is much larger than that of the previous P-wave velocity drop in the focal area. The P-wave velocity exceeded the pre-earthquake level. This indicates that the area experienced not only a post-earthquake seismic velocity recovery process, but also other physical processes. Combining with the results on strain field change obtained by the GPS data, it is inferred that the significant increase of P-wave velocity in this area is attributed to the superposition between the P-wave velocity increase due to the stress accumulation before the September 8, 2018, Yunnan Mojiang MS5.9 earthquake and the post-earthquake seismic recovery process. So the P-wave velocity increase in this area is a complex process.
We summarized the fluid anomalies associated with the Ludian MS6.5 earthquake based on the Sichuan and Yunnan earthquake network observations and field survey. The fluid anomalies were divided into long-term, medium-term, short-term, imminent and macroscopic anomalies according to the basic principles of earthquake forecasting. The long-term and medium-term anomalies distributed mainly in the range 300~500km away from the epicenter. By contrast, the short term, imminent and macroscopic anomalies clustered in an epicentral distance less than 100km. The underground fluid anomalies in the higher station density area reflect the enhancement of fluid movement, which are conducive to determine the seismic risk area and trace the short-term precursor of earthquake. The regional stress variations may cause the fractures in a fault zone open and close, leading to the change of water level and temperature in boreholes or spring and emission of deep-sourced gases. It may also lead to intense water-rock reaction and groundwater intrusion, resulting in the change of ion contents in groundwater, or sometimes, the occurrence of significant macroscopic anomalies. Therefore, it is highly possible to obtain reliable earthquake precursor information for predicting the forthcoming earthquake risk zone in the region with dense observation stations.