Based on the seismic data from temporary stations and regional stations in the northwestern area of Yunnan, the paper performs high-resolution detection and high-precision location on continuous waveforms recorded from February 25, 2018 to July 31, 2019 using waveform correlation methods and analyzes the seismicity characteristics of the Weixi-Qiaohou Fault in the northern section of the Red River fault zone. Studies have shown that the Weixi-Qiaohou Fault exhibits weak seismic activity currently, except for some special fault locations(such as terraces, intersections, etc.), but there may be a hidden steep-dip right-lateral strike-slip fault along the west side of the fault. Small earthquakes are frequent along the fault. The distribution of seismic activity and focal mechanism solutions indicate that this fault is a right-lateral strike-slip fault with a steep dip. Statistical parameters, such as seismic frequency, energy release rate and b-value, indicate that the seismic activity in the Weixi-Qiaohou Fault and its surrounding areas is relatively stable, and the regional stress enhancement is not obvious. The b-value is relatively high in most areas, and low b-value areas are mainly distributed in some special fault locations(such as terraces, intersections, etc.), but the scale is generally small. The statistical results of the ETAS model show that more than 40% of seismic activity may be affected by external factors such as deep fluid disturbance and remote strong earthquake triggering. This shows that the role of external trigger mechanisms in seismic activity cannot be ignored. The external triggering seismic activity factors are related to the disturbance of deep fluid activity and the dynamic triggering of long-distance strong earthquakes. Therefore, we believe that the Weixi-Qiaohou Fault is currently not active, but on the hidden branch fault to its west, small earthquake activity is clustering and has a tendency to increase. So, when assessing the seismic risk of the fault, comprehensive analysis shall be made on the activity of the main fault and the branch fault to its west.
In 2018, a short-period seismic network was set up in Eryuan area of Yunnan Province to carry out continuous field observation of the sub-instability process of the earthquake. The relevant data of the Yangbi MS6.4 earthquake sequence are mainly from the waveforms recorded by this network, combined with some other stations from Yunnan regional seismic network. The Yangbi earthquake sequence shows that the events in this area began to occur intensively on May 18. A total of 2 000 earthquakes with M>0.1 were recorded from May 18 to 23, including 770 foreshocks.
Seismicity analysis shows that two clusters of foreshocks occurred successively in the adjacent area of the main earthquake in the northwest segment of the rupture strip within 3 days, then in the subsequent impending period(within 1 hour before the main shock)about 60 events spread symmetrically from the center of the fracture zone to the ends. The spatial distribution of foreshocks in different periods shows the spatial migration of local fractures and accelerated expansion prior to the main shock. The spreading speed is about 5km/d from foreshock clustering process to 96km/d in impending earthquake period. The epicenter of the main shock is located at the edge of the cluster foreshocks and the northwest end of the final rupture zone. Subsequent aftershocks extend southeastward to the whole fracture zone in about half an hour, and the final fracture zone is more than 20 kilometers long, showing unilateral propagation of the rupture. Since 2018, b-value in the Yangbi area has been stable(0.9~1.1)for the past three years. After March this year, the b-value abnormally decreased to 0.6 before the main shock, reflecting that there was a significant process of continuous increase of local stress before the Yangbi earthquake.
The identification of short-term precursors and somehow definite information is one of the focus problems in earthquake prediction research. On the basis of the experimental results, Ma Jin proposed the theory of seismic meta-instability stage based on the characteristics of the load stress after the peak value from rock experiments and the corresponding change of related physical field, and considered that the degree of fault activity synergy was a sign to determine the stress state of the fault. When the fault activity changes from the expansion and increase of the stress releasing points in the early stage of meta-instability to the connection between the released segments at the late stage of meta-instability, that is, the quasi dynamic instability stage, the stress release on the fault will accelerate, and the acceleration mechanism is the strong interactions between the fault segments. In the context that the macroscopic stress state cannot be known directly, the original intention of the “meta-instability” test area is to try to capture the characteristic signal of the meta-instability stage described by the experimental phenomenon through the deformation and seismicity of the actual faults during the earthquake preparation process. It is clear that in this stage, the fault will continue to expand in the pre-slip zone theoretically, and it will enter into the quasi dynamic fracture expansion before the impending earthquake. This theory is obviously embodied in the foreshocks of this earthquake, forming the phenomenon of rapid migration of small earthquakes as mentioned above. From the current understanding of the meta-instability, it can be seen that the seismogenic fault is in the state of overall stress release at this stage, rather than the continuous increase of stress. Therefore, the decrease of b value before the earthquake shows that local faults have been activated and entered the final stage of nucleation process. The quasi dynamic spreading phenomenon before this kind of moderate-strong mainshock displayed by small earthquake activity can be identified as the precursor of a kind of earthquakes.
Shanxi tectonic belt is a historically earthquake-abundant area and the focal distribution of the majority of the strong earthquakes is controlled by the local north-south oriented structures on the tectonic belt. Using the cataclastic analysis method(CAM),we performed an inversion analysis on the stress state of focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes which happened on Shanxi tectonic belt from 1967 to 2010.Results show that spatial distributions of the maximum principal compressive stress axis of Shanxi tectonic belt have changed over time,with two different predominant directions,NW and NE,in different periods of time. When the maximum principal compressive stress axis is oriented in NE direction,the stress state is registered as horizontally shearing and horizontally extension on the north-south and southeast oriented local segments in turn. When the maximum principal compressive stress axis is oriented in NW direction,the stress state of north-south and northeast tectonic segments is primarily registered as horizontally shearing.
Using the cataclastic analysis method, this paper tries to make an analysis on the focal mechanism data of 486 small earthquakes that occurred at the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake and its surrounding areas in more than three years before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The result shows that obvious stress change occurred at the seismic source and its surrounding areas around June 2007 before the Wenchuan earthquake, manifested in two high numerical value areas of abnormal stress state. Meanwhile, the formation process of the above areas was accompanied by the drop of stress level of the Longmenshan central fault. The ultimate strong earthquake occurred on the stress gradient belt between the high stress area and the low stress area. The evolution process of stress level before the Wenchuan earthquake indicates that earthquake nucleation phenomenon turned up before the strong earthquake. One result can be inferred that there was an abnormal process of accelerated movement of the whole Bayankala block before the Wenchuan strong earthquake.
