Fixed point deformation observation, with a broad application prospect, plays an important role both in monitoring crustal deformation and capturing possible seismic precursors. Due to advantages of high precision, broad bandwidth and relative good continuity, fixed-point deformation observation, together with InSAR and GPS, has become one of the major methods in crustal deformation researches. During the daily observation, it is usual to encounter various load disturbances, such as heavy rain, reservoir, river, building constructions etc. However, when quantitatively evaluating the effects of such load disturbance, a number of studies were conducted without taking into account the rock mass integrity in the study area, i.e. simply using general rock mechanical parameters rather than specific rock mass mechanical parameters, which therefore greatly affect the final interpretation and the elimination of disturbance, or even the identification of seismic precursory anomalies. In this study, the strain survey data at Xiaoxinzhuang seismic station in Jixian County of Tianjin are taken as an example to illuminate that the integrity or fragmentation of rock mass in each specific site should be considered when conducting quantitative analysis, only thus can the influence of external load on deformation observation be evaluated more accurately. Firstly, a detailed joint statistic of the rock mass around Xiaoxinzhuang and Yuqiao reservoir was carried out; then the elastic modulus of rock mass of the study area was derived from the equation between rock mass volumetric joints and elastic modulus; finally the theoretical compressive strain at Xiaoxinzhuang station produced by Yuqiao reservoir was calculated by an irregular load model, and the influence of Yuqiao reservoir on the strain of Xiaoxinzhuang station was also evaluated. Geological surveys, combined with numerical simulation indicate that: 1)The exposed rocks are dominated by Middle Proterozoic dolomites and dolomites with minor limestone at Xiaoxinzhuang seismic station and its vicinity, and the corresponding volumetric joint counts of rock mass are more than 32, the highest values of 41 and 39 occurred at Ligezhuang and south of Yuqiao reservoir, respectively, which means the bedrocks are moderately fragmented; 2)The elastic modulus of rock mass in the study area is only 0.10~0.19 times(an averaged value of 0.14)of that of integral rock, which means that under the same stress the effect of external load disturbance will be magnified about 5~10 times(an averaged value of 7 times); 3)During the impoundment period of Yuqiao reservoir from September to November in 2019, the theoretical compressive strain at Xiaoxinzhuang station in the north-south direction induced by Yuqiao reservoir impounding is about(93.76~200.91)×10-8, calculated by an irregular load model, accounting for about 10%~21% of the actual observed strain; 4)Therefore, it is concluded that the earlier claimed anomaly is not an earthquake precursory anomaly, but probably the effect of water level change of Yuqiao reservoir.
GPS campaign observations can monitor dynamic characteristic of crustal deformation near the fault zone effectively. Dynamic characteristic of crustal deformation is the manifestation of the dynamic action of the faults in deep and shallow structures. The locking and movement state of faults in deep and shallow structures can be an objective characterization of strain accumulation in seismogenic fault. So we can use dynamic GPS observations to invert fault locking and fault slip deficit rate by some models, and then judge the mid- to long-term seismic potential of the faults. Research about the faults around the Daliangshan sub-block is relatively poor, and the moderate-strong earthquakes increased significantly around the sub-block over the past decade, which makes fault locking and seismic potential around the sub-block be the problem to be urgently studied. Therefore, by using the GPS horizontal velocity field of 1999-2007, 2009-2013 and the negative dislocation model of DEFNODE, we inverted for spatial fault locking and fault slip deficit rate in the Daliangshan sub-block which contains three major fault zones, named Daliangshan, Mabian-Yanjin and Huize-Yiliang, before and after the Wenchuan earthquake. We analyzed the seismic potential characteristic of the three faults combining with the seismic gap and the spatial distribution of b value. The results show that the locking state of the three faults was basically same before and after the Wenchuan earthquake, which indicates that the earthquake probably has a very weak influence on the faults. The inversion results of two periods show that the southern segment of Daliangshan, Mabian-Yanjin and Huize-Yiliang Faults are basically completely locked except the southwestern segment of Huize-Yiliang Fault. The slip deficit rates of the three faults are not huge before and after the earthquake. Daliangshan Fault is mainly of a sinistral strike-slip deficit, Mabian-Yanjin Fault has a little amount of sinistral strike-slip and compressional deficit which was slightly enhanced after the earthquake, and Huize-Yiliang Fault is characteristic of compressional deficit with a small amount of dextral strike-slip deficit, which reduced to about zero after the earthquake. Combining with some other results, we conclude that current seismic potential for strong or major earthquakes exists on the three faults.