Based on the differences of seismic activity,focal mechanism,geological structure,and hydrologic condition between reservoir induced seismicity(RIS)to natural earthquake,the basic features of reservoir induced earthquake from natural earthquake are studied statistically by the RIS database of 150 cases of reservoir induced earthquakes world-wide,and the results are shown as follows: ① Using statistical principle,we find that RIS occur in the areas near the reservoir banks in the impounding period,most of reservoir induced earthquake are distributed within a distance of 10km to the bank,with depth less than 10km,and a few events extend outwards as far as over 10km along fault zones,karst caves,and(thermal)springs; ②The frequency and magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity change with the reservoir water level. Most maximum magnitude earthquakes take place in the period before the first highest water level is reached,or in the following 2-3 impounding stages after the first highest water level,after then,a few would take place; ③The sequence of RIS is complete,usually as "foreshock-main shock-aftershock" or "foreshock-swarm-aftershock",most of them are microseisms of ML1-3, so the b value is larger than natural earthquakes; ④ RIS differ from natural shocks in higher epicenter intensity,higher frequency of ground motion and higher peak ground acceleration,but faster attenuation with distance; ⑤The stress drop of RIS is smaller than that of natural earthquake of the same size,and the source size is larger; ⑥ The RIS occur in areas under lithological and geologic conditions of good permeability. Tensional fracture,tensional fault zone,unconsolidated fault plane,karst,and(thermal)springs are all good water penetration channels.
In this paper,a statistical analysis is made using the gray clustering method on the earthquake inducing factors,such as dam height,storage capacity,regional stress state,fault activity,lithology medium conditions and seismic activity background,based on a database of reservoir-induced earthquakes,which includes 150 reservoir-induced earthquake cases and 532 large reservoirs data. Corresponding earthquake occurrence ratios are obtained and used as predictors for reservoir-induced earthquakes. According to the six quake-inducing factors,assessment is made on the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquake for the Three Gorges Reservoir dam area,the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross-river section of the Xiannushan Fault zone,the west Xietan,Badong,and on both banks of Shenlong stream. The results show that the upper-limit of magnitude at dam area is less than magnitude 3,that at the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross-river section of Xiannushan Fault zone is between magnitude 4~5,that at west of Xietan is less than magnitude 3,and that at the northern bank of badong and on both banks of the Shenlong stream is between magnitude 3~4.The results have been validated by the actual reservoir-induced seismicity after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, with the ML 2 earthquake at Xiaoxikou 4 km far away from the dam of the Three Gorges Reservoir on February 6, 2009, the MS 4.1 earthquake at the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross-river section of the Xiannushan Fault zone on November 22,2008, the MS 2.6 earthquake at the west Xietan on August 22, 2009, and the ML 3.5 earthquake at the bank of Shenlong stream on December 14,2009.
Using the observations of the Zipingpu reservoir seismic network(including seven short-period seismic stations,with an average station distance of 10km)of the period from July 2004 to 2009,and the data from January-December 2009 recorded by the intensive seismic observation network(six short-period seismic stations with the station spacing of 3km),930 foreshocks near Zipingpu reservoir,the main shock,and 5789aftershocks,as well as the initial rupture of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake were relocated with double difference location algorithm.Combined with the geological field investigations,the analysis of seismic activity in Zipingpu reservoir area,the distribution of coseismic surface rupture,the depth of initial rupture location of Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake,and the aftershock distribution,we find that the occurrence of MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake has close relation with Zipingpu reservoir: 1) The seismic swarms at the Shuimo,and Dujiangyan and Shenxigou area are 10 kilometers away from the reservoir,the seismic strain release caused by Zipingpu reservoir increased by 200%,and the release was closely related to water level changes and accelerated before the Wenchuan earthquake; 2) There are two northeast directed coseismic surface rupture zones with 1m displacement along Zhongtanpu Fault; 3) the aftershocks of Wenchuan earthquakes are mainly distributed on northwestern wall of the Zhongtanpu Fault; 4) The relocation revealed that the Wenchuan earthquake occurred at 27minutes,59.5 seconds,the depth is between 6~9km; and 5) by comparison,the focal depths of the fore-shocks occurring on 2008-04-05 are about 7.8km,and the initial time of waveforms of this swarm is same as that of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.