Abstract: Evident is the response of water level in the well Lu-15 to the process of mine collapse. Tentative analysis shows that using some precursory phenomena before a bigger mine collapse,a prediction of earthquake for the bigger mine collapse will can be made. For instance,the active time of less collapse before the bigger collapse will increase; the average change of water level in the well in each active period,the duration time ine ach active period and each calm period will all change before the bigger collapse: the abnormalities in the ΣN-t and No-Δt curves will all appear 28 days before the bigger collapse.

Key words: Mine collapse, Well Lu-15, Precursor, ΣN-t diagram, No-Δt diagram

摘要： 鲁15井水位对矿井崩塌过程有明显的反映。经初步分析表明,利用矿井大崩塌前的基些前兆现象可对较大矿井崩塌进行预报,如:大崩塌前小的崩塌活动次数加密;大崩塌前各活动期平均井水位变化、各活动期持续的时间和各平静期持续的时间都有变化;ΣN-t和No-Δt曲线都在大崩塌前28天出现异常。

关键词: 矿井崩塌, 鲁15井, 前兆, ΣN-t图, No-Δt图