Abstract: The software system consists of the historical data base of the earthquake casualties,the population data base and the calculating programs.The number of casualties by Tangshan earthquake and Xingtai earthquake was collected to build up the historical data base in which the injured can be divided into the dead,the serious injured and the light injured.The main type of the buildings related to the record in historical data base was given by the statistical results according to the interpretation from aeral photos which were taken after th shock.Based on the historical data,the death ratio related to the building for each intensity was calculated,so did the serious injured and the light injured.The population data base in Beijing and its adjacent areas,using the number of populations by the end of 1994,is built up to meet the needs for evaluating the casualties in the assumed coming earthquake.A special program designed makes the evaluating casualties as quickly as possible,where the intensity lines is digitized by the digiter,and the record in population data base is checked by the intensity lines to determine the related values.It follows that the mumber of evaluating casualties should be available in a short period of time after shocks.The system formulates the evaluating method in taking the probabilities of people staying in the buldings in each time as a modification factor to correct the number that varies with the earthquake occurring time.As a subsystem of evaluating earthquake disasters,it is mainly used in fast evaluations.

Key words: Data base, Earthquake disaster statistics, Hazard Forecast

摘要： 设计了地震人员伤亡评估系统软件包,并利用该系统对北京地区假定地震发生后的人员伤亡进行了预测。为设计该系统,建立了北京地区的人口数据库、唐山和邢台地震人员伤亡数据库,对一天中人在不同时间段逗留在房屋内部的概率进行了讨论,从而建立了地震人员伤亡评估的数学模型。该系统作为地震灾害评估系统的子系统,主要用于地震人员伤亡的快速评估。

关键词: 数据库, 震害统计, 灾害预测