THE YUSHU EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED LANDSLIDE HAZARD EVALUATION BASED ON WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE METHOD

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.01.013

Abstract

Abstract:

2036 landslides were triggered by the 2010 Yushu earthquake from aerial photographs and remote sensing images interpreting,verified by selected field checking. In this paper,twelve factors that influence landslide occurrence,including distance from main co-seismic surface ruptures,peak ground acceleration (PGA),elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,slope curvature,slope position,distance from drainages,lithology,distance from faults,distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI),are selected as landslide hazard evaluation factors. Two types of landslide hazard index map are derived using two "weight of evidence" methods based on Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology.The success rate of Add-"weight of evidence" method is 80.32%,and the success rate of Subtract-"weight of evidence" method is 80.19%,both are satisfactory.The resulting hazard evaluation maps are divided into five categories, i.e.extremely high,high,moderate,low,and extremely low,respectively.The landslide hazard maps can be used to identify and delineate unstable hazard-prone areas. It can also help planners to choose favourable locations for development schemes,such as infrastructures,buildings,road construction,and environmental protection.

Key words: the Yushu earthquake triggered landslides, weight of evidence, hazard evaluation

摘要：

玉树地震诱发了2 036处滑坡。应用地理信息系统与遥感技术,选取与地表破裂距离、峰值加速度(PGA)、高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、坡位、与水系距离、岩性、与断裂距离、与公路距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)等12个因素作为玉树地震滑坡危险性评价因子,采用加法与减法2种证据权方法,开展玉树地震滑坡危险性评价研究工作。结果表明:基于加法证据权方法得到评价结果的正确率为80.32%,基于减法证据权方法得到结果的正确率为80.19%。将滑坡危险性评价结果图分为极高危险区、高危险区、中危险区、低危险区与极低危险区5类。这一成果可划分出滑坡危险区,为灾后滑坡防治、基础设施重建与自然环境保护提供参考。

关键词: 玉树地震滑坡, 证据权, 危险性评价

CLC Number:

P642

XU Chong, XU Xi-wei, YU Gui-hua. THE YUSHU EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED LANDSLIDE HAZARD EVALUATION BASED ON WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE METHOD[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2013, 35(1): 151-164.

许冲, 徐锡伟, 于贵华. 基于证据权方法的玉树地震滑坡危险性评价[J]. 地震地质, 2013, 35(1): 151-164.

References

陈立春,王虎,冉勇康,等.2010.玉树M_S 7.1级地震地表破裂与历史大地震［J］.科学通报,55(13): 1200—1205.
CHEN Li-chun,WANG Hu,RAN Yong-kang,et al.2010.The M_S 7.1 Yushu earthquake surface rupture and large historical earthquakes on the Garzê-Yushu Fault ［J］.Chinese Science Bulletin,55(13): 1200—1205(in Chinese).
顾瑾萍.2010.青海玉树7.1级强震地震地质构造背景 .http: //www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/ 10 _ 05/11/1273559661761.html.
GU Jin-ping.2010.Tectonic setting of M_S 7.1 Yushu strong earthquake in Qinghai Province .http: //www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/ 10 _ 05/11/1273559661761.html(in Chinese).
李金臣,潘华,张志中.2010.青海玉树7.1级地震构造背景［J］.国际地震动态,(5): 1—5.
LI Jin-chen,PAN Hua,ZHANG Zhi-zhong.2010.The seismotectonic setting of Yushu M7.1 earthquake in Qinghai Province ［J］.Recent Developments in World Seismology,(5): 1—5(in Chinese).
刘云华,单新建,屈春燕,等.2010.青海玉树M_S 7.1级地震地表形变场特征研究［J］.中国科学(D辑),40(10): 1310—1320.
LIU Yun-hua,SHAN Xin-jian,QU Chun-yan,et al.2010.Earthquake deformation field characteristics associated with the 2010 Yushu M_S 7.1 earthquake ［J］.Science in China(Ser D),40(10): 1310—1320(in Chinese).
马寅生,张永双,胡道功,等.2010.玉树地震地表破裂与宏观震中［J］.地质力学学报,16(2): 115—128.
MA Yin-sheng,ZHANG Yong-shuang,HU Dao-gong,et al.2010.The surface ruptures and the macroscopical epicenter of Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake ［J］.Journal of Geomechanics,16(2): 115—128(in Chinese).
钱晓东,秦嘉政.2010.2010年青海玉树地震及震后青藏高原强震趋势分析［J］.地震研究,33(4): 255—264.
QIAN Xiao-dong,QIN Jia-zheng.2010. The 2010 earthquake in Yushu,Qinghai Province and strong earthquake trend analysis of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau after the earthquake ［J］.Journal of Seismological Research,33(4): 255—264(in Chinese).
任俊杰,谢富仁,刘冬英,等.2010.2010年玉树地震的构造环境、历史地震活动及其复发周期估计［J］.震灾防御技术,5(2): 228—233.
REN Jun-jie,XIE Fu-ren,LIU Dong-ying,et al.2010. Study of tectonics,seismicity and recurrence interval of Yushu 2010 earthquake,Qinghai Province ［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,5(2): 228—233(in Chinese).
沈强,乔学军,王琪,等.2010.中国玉树M_W6.9地震InSAR地表形变特征分析［J］.大地测量与地球动力学,30(3): 5—9.
SHEN Qiang,QIAO Xue-jun,WANG Qi,et al.2010.Characteristic analysis of coseismic deformation of Yushu M_W6.9 earthquake from InSAR images ［J］.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,30(3): 5—9(in Chinese).
石峰,何宏林,张英.2010.青海玉树M_S 7.1级地震地表破裂带的遥感影像解译［J］.震灾防御技术,5(2): 220—227.
SHI Feng,HE Hong-lin,ZHANG Ying.2010.Remote sensing interpretation of the M_S 7.1 Yushu earthquake surface ruptures ［J］.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,5(2): 220—227(in Chinese).
孙鑫喆,徐锡伟,陈立春,等.2010.青海玉树M_S 7.1地震2个典型地点的地表破裂特征［J］.地震地质,32(2): 338—344.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2010.02.017.
SUN Xin-zhe,XU Xi-wei,CHEN Li-chun,et al.2010.Characteristics of surface rupture of the M_S 7.1 Yushu,Qinghai Province earthquake at two representative places ［J］.Seismology and Geology,32(2): 338—344(in Chinese).
王志旺,李端有,王湘桂. 2007.证据权法在滑坡危险度区划研究中的应用［J］.岩土工程学报,29(8): 1268—1273.
WANG Zhi-wang,LI Duan-you,WANG Xiang-gui. 2007.Zonation of landslide hazards based on weights of evidence model ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,29(8): 1268—1273(in Chinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章,等.2003.甘孜-玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂［J］.中国科学(D辑),33(S1): 199—208.
WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,ZHENG Rong-zhang,et al.2003.Average slip rate of Garzê-Yushu Fault and surface ruptures triggered by recent large earthquake ［J］.Science in China(Ser D),33(S1): 199—208(in Chinese).
熊探宇,姚鑫,张永双.2010.鲜水河断裂带全新世活动性研究进展综述［J］.地质力学学报,16(2): 176—188.
XIONG Tan-yu,YAO Xin,ZHANG Yong-shuang.2010.A review on study of activity of Xianshuihe Fault zone since the Holocene ［J］.Journal of Geomechanics,16(2): 176—188(in Chinese).
许冲.2012.汶川地震滑坡详细编录及其与全球其他地震滑坡事件对比［J］.科技导报,30(25): 18—26.
XU Chong.2012.Detailed inventory of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered landslides and its comparison with global other earthquake events ［J］.Science & Technology Review,30(25): 18—26(in Chinese).
许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.2009.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价［J］.岩石力学与工程学报,28(S2): 3978—3985.
XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin,et al.2009.GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in Wenchuan earthquake region ［J］.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(S2): 3978—3985(in Chinese).
许冲,戴福初,徐锡伟.2010a.汶川地震滑坡灾害研究综述［J］.地质论评,56(6): 860—874.
XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,XU Xi-wei.2010a. Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides: An overview ［J］.Geological Review,56(6): 860—874(in Chinese).
许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.2010b.基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价［J］.工程地质学报,18(1): 15—26.
XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin,et al.2010b. GIS platform and certainty factor analysis method based Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation ［J］.Journal of Engineering Geology,18(1): 15—26(in Chinese).
许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.2010c.基于GIS的汶川地震滑坡灾害影响因子确定性系数分析［J］.岩石力学与工程学报,29(S1): 2972—2981.
XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin,et al.2010c. GIS based certainty factor analysis of landslide triggering factors in Wenchuan earthquake ［J］.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,29(S1): 2972—2981.
许冲,徐锡伟.2012a.基于不同核函数的2010年玉树地震滑坡空间预测模型研究［J］.地球物理学报,55(9): 2994—3005.
XU Chong,XU Xi-wei.2012a.The 2010 Yushu earthquake triggered landslides spatial prediction models based on several kernel function types ［J］.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,55(9):2994—3005(in Chinese).
许冲,徐锡伟.2012b.基于GIS与ANN模型的地震滑坡易发性区划［J］. 地质科技情报,31(3):116—121.
XU Chong,XU Xi-wei.2012b. GIS and ANN model for earthquake triggered landslides susceptibility zonation ［J］.Geological Science and Technology Information,31(3):116—121(in Chinese).
许冲,徐锡伟,戴福初,等.2011a.2010年4月14日玉树地震滑坡空间分布与控制变量分析［J］.工程地质学报,19(4): 505—510.
XU Chong,XU Xi-wei,DAI Fu-chu,et al.2011a. Analysis of spatial distribution and controlling parameters of landslides triggered by the April 14,2010 Yushu earthquake ［J］.Journal of Engineering Geology,19(4): 505—510(in Chinese).
许冲,戴福初,徐锡伟,等.2011b.基于GIS平台与证据权的地震滑坡易发性评价［J］.地球科学-中国地质大学学报,36(6):1155—1164.
XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,XU Xi-wei,et al.2011b. Earthquake triggered landslide susceptibility evaluation based on GIS platform and weight-of-evidence modeling ［J］.Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences,36(6):1155—1164(in Chinese).
许冲,徐锡伟,于贵华.2012.玉树地震滑坡分布调查及其特征与形成机制［J］.地震地质,34(1): 47—62.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2012.01.006.
XU Chong,XU Xi-wei,YU Gui-hua.2012.Study on the characteristics,mechanism,and spatial distribution of Yushu earthquake triggered landslides ［J］.Seismology and Geology,34(1): 47—62(in Chinese).
殷跃平,田廷山,李文渊,等.2010b.青海玉树地震地质灾害调查 .http: //www.gcdz.org/CN/article/downloadArticleFile.do？attachType=PDF&id=8550.
YIN Yue-ping,TIAN Ting-shan,LI Wen-yuan,et al.2010b. Investigation on Yushu earthquake triggered geological hazards .http: //www.gcdz.org/CN/article/downloadArticleFile.do？attachType=PDF&id=8550(in Chinese).
殷跃平,张永双,马寅生,等.2010a.青海玉树M_S 7.1级地震地质灾害主要特征［J］.工程地质学报,18(3): 289—296.
YIN Yue-ping,ZHANG Yong-shuang,MA Yin-sheng,et al.2010a. Research on major characteristics of geohazards induced by the Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake ［J］.Journal of Engineering Geology,18(3): 289—296(in Chinese).
张建毅,薄景山,李平,等.2010.玉树地震地表破裂对建筑物影响的分析［J］.地震工程与工程振动,30(6): 24—31.
ZHANG Jian-yi,BO Jing-shan,LI Ping,et al.2010.Influence of surface ruptures on buildings during M_S7.1 Yushu earthquake ［J］.Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,30(6): 24—31(in Chinese).
张军龙,陈长云,胡朝忠,等.2010.玉树M_S 7.1地震地表破裂带及其同震位移分布［J］.地震,30(3): 1—12.
ZHANG Jun-long,CHEN Chang-yun,HU Chao-Zhong,et al.2010.Surface rupture and coseismic displacement of the Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake,China ［J］.Earthquake,30(3): 1—12(in Chinese).
张永双,马寅生,胡道功,等.2010.玉树地震地表破裂调查与灾后重建避让选址研究［J］.地质学报,84(5): 593—605.
ZHANG Yong-shuang,MA Yin-sheng,HU Dao-gong,et al.2010.Investigation and research on the surface rupture of the Yushu earthquake and reconstruction site selection ［J］.Acta Geologica Sinica,84(5): 593—605(in Chinese).
中国地震局地质研究所.2010.玉树7.1级地震断层地表破裂带和地质灾害调查报告 .http: //www.eq-igl.ac.cn/html/8a834a81158a15aa01158a1bbbd40003/_content/10_04/26/1272249728202.html.
Institute of Geology,Chinese Earthquake Administration.2010.Investigation report of surface ruptures and geological hazards triggered by Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake . http://www.eq-igl.ac.cn/html/8a834a81158a15aa01158a1bbbd40003/_content/10_04/26/1272249728202.html(in Chinese).
Bartholomew M J,Li D,Luo W,et al.2010.Surface displacements determined from offset features and landform-restoration along faults associated with 14 April,2010 Yushu earthquakes,eastern Tibetan plateau,Qinhai Province,China .American Geophysical Union,Fall Meeting 2010,abstract #NH31B-1356.
Conoscenti C,Di Maggio C,Rotiglinao E.2008.GIS analysis to assess landslide susceptibility in a fluvial basin of NW Sicily(Italy)［J］.Geomorphology,94(3-4): 325—339.
Dahal R K,Hasegawa S,Nonomura A,et al.2008a. Predictive modelling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence ［J］.Geomorphology,102(3-4): 496—510.
Dahal R K,Hasegawa S,Nonomura A,et al.2008b. GIS-based weights-of-evidence modelling of rainfall-induced landslides in small catchments for landslide susceptibility mapping ［J］.Environmental Geology,54(2): 311—324.
Kamp U,Growley B J,Khattak G A,et al.2008.GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region ［J］.Geomorphology,101(4): 631—642.
Lee S,Choi J.2004.Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and the weight-of-evidence model ［J］.International Journal of Geographical Information Science,18(8): 789—814.
Lin A M,Rao G,Jia D,et al.2011.Co-seismic strike-slip surface rupture and displacement produced by the 2010 M_W 6.9 Yushu earthquake,China,and implications for Tibetan tectonics ［J］.Journal of Geodynamics(in press).
Mathew J,Jha V K,Rawae G S.2007.Weights of evidence modelling for landslide hazard zonation mapping in part of Bhagirathi valley,Uttarakhand ［J］.Current Science,92(5): 628—638.
Neuhauser B,Terhorst B. 2007.Landslide susceptibility assessment using "weights-of-evidence" applied to a study area at the Jurassic escarpment(SW-Germany)［J］.Geomorphology,86(1-2): 12—24.
Pan J,Li H,Xu Z,et al.2010.Surface rupture characteristics and rupture mechanics of the Yushu earthquake(M_S 7.1), 14/04/2010 .American Geophysical Union,Fall Meeting 2010,abstract #T54B-08.
Sharma M,Kumar R.2008.GIS-based landslide hazard zonation: A case study from the Parwanoo area,Lesser and Outer Himalaya,H P,India ［J］.Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,67(1): 129—137.
Song R H,Hiromu D,Kazutoki A,et al.2008.Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model: A case study of the Sabae Area,Japan ［J］.International Journal of Sediment Research,23(2): 106—118.
Thiery Y,Malet J P,Sterlacchini S,et al.2007.Landslide susceptibility assessment by bivariate methods at large scales: Application to a complex mountainous environment ［J］.Geomorphology,92(1-2): 38—59.
Thiery Y,Sterlacchini S,Malet J P,et al.2004.Strategy to reduce subjectivity in landslide susceptibility zonation by GIS in complex mountainous environments .7th AGILE Conference on GIScience: Greece.
Tobita M,Nishimura T,Kobayashi T,et al.2011.Estimation of coseismic deformation and a fault model of the 2010 Yushu earthquake using PALSAR interferometry data ［J］.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,307(3-4): 430—438.
U S Geological Survey.2010.Magnitude 6.9-southern Qinghai,China,2010 April 13 23: 49: 38 UTC .http: //earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/us2010vacp/.
van den Eeckhaut M,Reichenbach P,Guzzetti F,et al.2009.Combined landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment based on different mapping units: An example from the Flemish Ardennes,Belgium ［J］.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,9(2): 507—521.
van Westen C J,Rengers N,Soeters R.2003.Use of geomorphological information in indirect landslide susceptibility assessment ［J］.Natural Hazards,30(3): 399—419.
Weiss A D.2006.Topographic position and landforms analysis .http: //www.jennessent.com/downloads/tpi-poster-tnc_18x22.pdf.
Wu F Y,Li H,Pan J,et al.2010.Field measurements along the 2010 M_S 7.1 Yushu earthquake rupture show strike-slip and dip-slip activities,resulting in mountains uplift .American Geophysical Union,Fall Meeting 2010,abstract #T51B-2033.
Xu C,Xu X W.2012.Comment on "Spatial distribution analysis of landslides triggered by 2008.5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake,China" by Shengwen Qi,Qiang Xu,Hengxing Lan,Bing Zhang,Jianyou Liu ［J］.Engineering Geology,(133-134): 40—42.
Xu C,Xu X W,Dai F C,et al.2012a. Landslide hazard mapping using GIS and weight of evidence model in Qingshui River watershed of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake struck region ［J］.Journal of Earth Science,23(1):97—120.
Xu C,Dai F C,Xu X W,et al.2012b. GIS-based support vector machine modeling of earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Jianjiang River watershed,China ［J］.Geomorphology,(145-146): 70—80.
Xu C,Xu X W,Dai F C,et al.2012c. Comparison of different models for susceptibility mapping of earthquake triggered landslides related with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China ［J］.Computers & Geosciences,46: 317—329.
Xu C,Xu X W,Lee Y H,et al.2012d.The 2010 Yushu earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping using GIS and weight of evidence modeling ［J］.Environmental Earth Sciences,66(6): 1603—1616.
Xu C,Xu X W,Yu G H.2012e. Landslides triggered by slipping-fault-generated earthquake on a plateau: An example of the 14 April 2010,M_S 7.1,Yushu,China earthquake ［J］.Landslides,Online.doi: 10.1007/s10346-012-0340-x.
Xu X W,Yu G H,Sun X Z.2010.Yushu earthquake slip: Implication of great earthquake migration along boundary fault system of Bayan Har block,Tibetan plateau .American Geophysical Union,Fall Meeting 2010,abstract #T22A-04.
Zahiri H,Palamara D R,Flentje P,et al.2006.A GIS-based weights-of-evidence model for mapping cliff instabilities associated with mine subsidence ［J］.Environmental Geology,51(3): 377—386.
Zezere J L,Garcia R A C,Oliveira S C,et al.2008.Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon(Portugal)［J］.Geomorphology,94(3-4): 467—495.
Zhang Y S,Yao X,Xiong T Y,et al.2010a. Rapid identification and emergency investigation of surface ruptures and geohazards induced by the M_S 7.1 Yushu Earthquake ［J］.Acta Geologica Sinica-English Edition,84(6): 1315—1527.
Zhang Y,Xu L S,Chen Y T.2010b. Fast inversion of rupture process of the 14 April 2010 Yushu,Qinghai,earthquake ［J］.Earthquake Science,23(3): 201—204.

[1]	XU Jian-dong, YU Hong-mei, ZHOU Ben-gang, CUI Wen-ling, DU Long, WEI Fei-xiang. SITE EVALUATION AND VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS OF CHINA [J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2019, 41(5): 1289-1301.
[2]	LIU Yue, SHAO Zhi-gang. ANALYSIS OF SEISMICITY CHANGES PRIOR TO THE 2014 YUNNAN JINGGU M_S6.6 EARTHQUAKE [J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2016, 38(4): 1070-1081.
[3]	LIU Li-na, XU Chong, CHEN Jian. DEBRIS-FLOW HAZARD EVALUATION BASED ON GEOMORPHIC INFORMATION ENTROPY AND LANDSLIDE MATERIALS IN THE LUSHAN EARTHQUAKE AFFECTED AREA [J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2015, 37(3): 880-892.
[4]	Cheng Jiayu, Yang Zhe, Tang Hanjun, Wang Gongxue. THE ACCURACY ESTIMATION IN THE INVESTIGATION OF DISASTER BY AIRBKORN REMOTE SENSING [J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 1995, 17(1): 89-95.