Abstract: Integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity reflects the complex interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity risk factors and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.Establishing the index system needs comprehensive and integrated studies of seismology,sociology,economics,management and engineering science.An integrated risk system of reservoir induced seismicity consisting of four subsystems of hazard,vulnerability,disaster-reduction capability and disaster condition is presented according to the mechanism analysis of interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.The four subsystems and their second-class indexes make up the preliminary integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity.The preliminary index system is filtrated with expert advisory information and accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,and then the final integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity is established,which can be applied to the integrated risk assessment of reservoir induced seismicity and can provide the supporting technology for establishing early warning system of integrated risk of reservoir induced seismicity.

Key words: reservoir induced seismicity, integrated risk system, assessment index system, index filtration, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, accelerating genetic algorithm

摘要： 水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系反映了水库诱发地震风险因子与研究地区整个社会经济系统的复杂交互作用关系,建立该指标体系需要地震学、社会学、经济学、管理学和工程学的综合集成研究。根据水库诱发地震与所在地区社会经济系统交互作用的机理分析,提出了由危险性、易损性、减灾能力、灾情4个子系统组成水库诱发地震综合风险系统。由这些子系统及其二级评价指标组成水库诱发地震综合风险评价的初步指标体系,再利用专家咨询信息,采用遗传模糊层次分析法筛选该初步指标体系,从而建立了水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系。该指标体系可用于水库诱发地震综合风险评价,为构建水库诱发地震综合风险预警系统提供了重要的技术基础。

关键词: 水库诱发地震, 综合风险系统, 评价指标体系, 指标筛选, 模糊层次分析法, 加速遗传算法