Abstract:

Public self-rescue and mutual rescue are effective actions to reduce disaster losses and are an important part of social disaster response capabilities. To investigate the influencing mechanisms of disaster self-rescue and mutual rescue attitudes among residents in megacities, this study is based on survey data collected from July to October 2024 regarding earthquake risk perception in Chaoyang District, Beijing. An ordered logistic regression model was used to conduct an empirical analysis of 92 810 valid questionnaires, focusing on the driving effects of core variables—such as trust in government disaster prevention capabilities and personal disaster risk perception—on public attitudes.

The survey data reveal a contradiction of “high willingness, low skills.” Over 46% of respondents expressed confidence in their ability to protect themselves during an earthquake, and 65.32% agreed they could provide timely assistance to others. However, only 48.98% could correctly identify appropriate emergency measures, and 52.57%had never participated in disaster-related training or drills.

The empirical results show that trust in government and perceived impact are two core drivers. For each one-level increase in trust, the probability of positive self-rescue and other-rescue attitudes increases by 23.2% and 16.0%, respectively. Similarly, a one-level increase in perceived family impact increases these probabilities by 5.1% and 11.2%.

Further analysis indicates that attitudes vary significantly by gender, age, and disaster experience. Males’ self-rescue confidence relies more on trust and impact perception, while females are more sensitive to psychological panic. Trust is also a more significant factor for those aged 35-50 and individuals with little disaster experience.

Robustness tests using OLS and Ordered Probit models confirmed the reliability of these conclusions. Recommendations include enhancing government transparency to build trust, improving routine risk communication, and providing targeted skill training to bridge the gap between willingness and capability.

Conclusions and Recommendations: First, trust in the government’s disaster prevention capabilities is a key external driver of public self-rescue and mutual rescue. The government should recognize the positive correlation between disaster information disclosure and individual risk perception, continuously improve decision-making efficiency and operational standards, and effectively enhance public trust through greater transparency in disaster prevention actions. Second, individual risk perception is the primary motivation for self-rescue and mutual rescue. The government should prioritize routine risk awareness education to ensure the public understands local disaster risks, and focus on optimizing risk communication mechanisms so that risk perception can be effectively translated into actionable will and capability. Third, a practical contradiction exists between “high willingness and low skills” in public response, stemming from insufficient coverage and efficacy of current training. The government needs to provide targeted knowledge and skills training for different demographic groups(e.g., gender, age, disaster experience), strengthen public capability-building, and transform subjective willingness into tangible disaster reduction outcomes. This will ultimately establish a virtuous cycle where trusted government capacity enhances public willingness, which in turn improves public competence and overall societal disaster resilience.

The results reveal the key mechanisms and group heterogeneity of public disaster response attitudes, providing an empirical basis for formulating optimized policies to enhance societal disaster prevention, mitigation, and response capabilities.

Key words: megacity, earthquake disaster, self rescue and mutual assistance, risk perception

摘要：

民众自救互救是灾后及时减轻损失的有效行动, 也是全社会救灾能力的重要组成部分。文中基于北京市朝阳区居民近10万份调查样本数据, 运用有序逻辑回归模型进行实证研究和稳健性检验, 揭示了民众灾害自救互救态度的影响机制。结果表明, 对政府防灾能力的信任和灾害对个人与家庭的影响是民众灾后自救互救态度的2个核心驱动因素。调查数据同时显示, 民众自救互救的主观意愿与实际能力之间存在“高意愿、低技能”的矛盾。针对不同类型子样本的进一步分析结果显示: 自救互救态度会受性别、年龄、灾害经历等个体特征影响。建议政府在提高防灾透明度、强化民众风险感知、加强技能培训等方面加大支持力度, 以提升民众防灾减灾救灾能力。文中研究结果可为政府制定灾害自救互救优化政策及相关措施提供参考。

关键词: 特大城市, 地震灾害, 自救互救, 风险感知