Abstract: Some resarch results show that there is a relationship between duration of the strong aftershock activities and recurrence interval of large earthquakes, namly the longer the duration of the strong aftershock activities, the longer the recurrence interval of large earthquakes. In this paper, using rheology model, we derive the mathematical formulas of duration of the strong aftershock activities and recurrence interval of large earthquakes, and give the lognormal relationship between the recurrence interval of large earthquakes and the duration of the strong aftershock activities from theoretical research. Therefore the research in this paper provides theoretical basis for establishing the relationship between duration of the strong aftershock activities and recurrence interval of large earthquakes.

Key words: Macroquake, Strong aftershocks, Earthquake recurrence, Rheologic model, Strike-slip fault

摘要： 前人的工作曾给出大地震的强余震活动持续时间与大地震的重复时间之间存在正变化关系,即较长的余震持续时间对应较长的主震复发时间。应用地震孕育的流变模型,推导了大地震重复时间和大震后余震活动持续时间的数学表达式,并从理论上给出了大震重复时间和其余震持续时间之间的对数正比关系,从而为建立大地震的重复时间和余震持续时间的关系提供了一方面理论依据。

关键词: 大震, 强余震, 地震复发, 流变模型, 走滑断层