Abstract: Fault rupture is a main type of earthquake-induced geological hazards in the region where faults are developed.Generally speaking,the damage to structures caused by surface rupture is difficultly to withstood.Therefore,Rupture hazard analysis becomes a more important subject in earthquake microzonation.Based on the principles of seismic risk analysis,the paper presents a rupture hazard analysis model for a site with the at-enuation of displacement taken into account Finally,taking the Xianshuihe fault as an texample,we make an estimation of the rupture hazard of a certain site.

Key words: Fault rupure hazard, Attenuation of displacement, Site, Potential seismic source

摘要： 地表破裂是断裂发育地区主要的地震地质灾害。断层错动、地表破裂对结构物的破坏不是一般的抗震措施所能抵御的。因而地表破裂危险性分析日益引起工程设计人员的重视。利用地震危险性分析的原理,建立了考虑位错衰减的场地破裂危险性分析模型。利用该模型,可以了解场地在未来的有效时间内最大位错超过给定值的可能性。最后,以鲜水河断裂为例,评价了某场地的破裂危险性。

关键词: 断层破裂危险性, 位错衰减, 场地, 潜在震源段