Earthquake-induced landslides, as an important secondary geological disaster, typically occurring during or shortly after an earthquake, have the characteristics of large quantity and scale, wide distribution, complex mechanism, serious casualties and economic losses, and long-duration post-earthquake effect. Rapidly and accurately obtaining the spatial distribution and potential hazard assessment of coseismic landslide following an earthquake is critical for emergency rescue and resettlement planning. Currently, the most commonly-used coseismic landslide hazard assessment methods include the data-driven machine learning methods and the Newmark method based on mechanics mechanism. The 2022 MW5.8 Lushan earthquake provides a valuable window for us to carry out rapid emergence assessment of earthquake-induced landslides with different evaluation models. In this study, a new generation of China's earthquake landslide hazard model(hereinafter referred to as Xu2019 model)and a simplified Newmark model are used to carry out the rapid landslide assessment of Lushan event. The Xu2019 model selects 9 earthquake-induced landslide inventories around China as training samples and uses a total of 13 influencing factors such as elevation, relative elevation, slope angle, and aspect, and etc. to generate a near real-time evaluation model for coseismic landslides based on the LR method. The model can rapidly assess coseismic landslides towards a single earthquake event according to the actual PGA distribution. For Newmark model, the cumulative displacement(Dn)is calculated by the critical acceleration(ac)and PGA maps. For the landslide inventory of this earthquake event, we completed the landslide inventory covering the entire affected area based on high-resolution optical satellite images(Planet)with 3m resolution acquired on 6 July 2022. Based on the coseismic landslide inventory including 2 352 landslides with an area of 5.51km2, the accuracy and applicability of the two models are estimated. The results show that the landslide area calculated based on Xu2019 model is 5.07km2, which is very close to the actual landslide area, and the predicted area calculated based on Newmark model reaches 21.3km2. From the perspective of the spatial distribution of the prediction results, the distribution of the predicted high failure probabilities of the two models is roughly same, with the high probability values mainly located on the left side of the seismogenic fault. However, the difference lies in the low probability predictions of the northwest region of Baoxing county by the Xu2019 model. A zoomed-in view of a specific area comparing the spatial distribution of predicted landslide probabilities with the landslide abundance area shows that most actual landslide are concentrated in the medium to high failure probability areas predicted by the Xu2019 model, with only a few sporadic events occurring in the low probability zone. On the other hand, the Newmark model primarily identifies high instability probability regions in steep slope areas, which correspond closely to the actual landslide and collapse occurrences. However, the predicted hazard level of the northwest region i.e. the landslide highly developed area is obviously low by Xu2019 model, while the prediction result based on Newmark model for the southwest region is obviously overestimated. In terms of the LR model, the prediction results are very close to the actual landslide distribution, and the majority of the landslides are essentially located in areas with a high failure probability, indicating that the model has a relatively high prediction accuracy. The ROC curve is used to assess the model's accuracy. The results suggest that the model based on Xu2019 outperforms the Newmark model, with a prediction accuracy of 0.77, while the prediction accuracy of the Newmark model is 0.74. Overall, both two models have good practicability in the rapid evaluation of cosesimic landslide. However, the Newmark model needs multi parameter input, and these parameters themselves and the way of human acquisition are uncertain, which results in that the model evaluation is greatly affected by subjectivity.
Seismic landslide is a kind of natural disaster in which the slope is unstable and slips under the action of earthquake. Unlike landslides triggered by factors such as rainfall, strong earthquakes in mountainous areas tend to trigger a large number of landslides over a wide area, which can cause more casualties and economic property losses than the earthquake itself in many cases. Moreover, the occurrence of earthquake-induced landslides is characterized by abruptness and concealment, so it is difficult to spot monitoring and prevention. In order to reduce the loss of earthquake-induced landslide disaster, scientists have developed a variety of prediction and evaluation methods for earthquake landslide hazard based on different theories and models through long-term research. The MS7.4 earthquake, which occurred at 2:04 a.m. on 22 May 2021 in Maduo, Qinghai(34.59°N, 98.34°E), provided an opportunity to test the validity of the different models. On the one hand, based on the simplified Newmark displacement model, the susceptibility of seismic landslide in Maduo earthquake area is calculated. Furthermore, the seismic landslide risk is evaluated by combining with the seismic intensity distribution map after Maduo earthquake. On the other hand, based on the discrimination analysis method, the empirical model obtained from the Niigata earthquake in Japan is used to predict the earthquake landslide in Maduo earthquake area. The research results show that: Based on the rapid assessment of earthquake-induced landslide risk by simplified Newmark displacement model, the potential high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the intensity area of Ⅷ, Ⅸ and Ⅹ which are greatly affected by the intensity of ground motion. On the whole, with the weakening of the impact of ground motion, the landslide risk decreases gradually, this is in good agreement with the actual situation. As an empirical model, discrimination analysis method is relatively dependent on a specific environment. When it is used out of its own environment, it is necessary to verify the universality of empirical formula, re-understand the relationship between various impact factors, and adjust the weight of each factor. The difference between the two methods in the prediction results is mainly in the seismic intensity Ⅵ region. In the areas with intensity VII and above, the risk zoning obtained by the two methods is generally consistent. Due to the differences in the research models adopted by the two methods, there are some differences in the distribution of seismic landslide hazard areas with different risk levels in the prediction results, especially in the Ⅵ intensity region. Intensity Ⅵ region is wide with more mountainous areas, and steep slopes are distributed in most of the areas. As a result, the discriminant analysis results in this area are more influenced by slope and curvature value, so there are more highly dangerous areas in the prediction results. However, the simplified Newmark method is greatly affected by the ground motion. Because this region is far away from the epicenter and the impact of ground motion is weak, so the main prediction results of this region show more low risk areas. However, in the intensity Ⅶ and above areas, the risk zoning of the two methods was generally consistent, and the prediction effect was good. In general, it can be seen from the prediction results that these two methods reflect their effectiveness to some extent. However, due to the different factors and fewer constraints, there are some differences in the results. In the seismic landslide risk assessment based on the discriminant analysis method, objective and complete landslide samples need to be fully analyzed, which is also a problem faced by the prediction method based on empirical model. As a physical model, Newmark model does not depend on the specific environment, although it has the problem in accuracy of input parameters, it is more objective and reasonable in the calculation results. In this paper, a simple evaluation and analysis of the Maduo earthquake was conducted based on the Newmark model method, which only considered the impact of slope itself and ground motion, but did not take into account hydrological factors, human activities, geomorphic factors and other conditions. Meanwhile, the Newmark evaluation method needs to obtain relatively clear rock-soil physico-mechanical properties and ground motion parameters, but it is difficult to obtain accurate data of each slope in practice, so there are still defects and deficiencies in regional risk assessment using this model. Compared with other traditional prediction methods based on statistical analysis, the physical meaning of this method is clearer, and it has irreplaceable advantages in combination with ground motion parameters. As a qualitative method, the discriminant analysis method uses the empirical formula derived from other earthquake cases to predict landslides. Engineering geological conditions are different in different earthquake regions, so the controlling factors of earthquake-induced landslide are not the same and the influence weight of each factor is different to some extent. Both qualitative and quantitative methods have their own advantages and disadvantages in the study of regional seismic landslide hazard prediction. It would take a long time to achieve accurate prediction of earthquake landslides.
Strong earthquakes can not only trigger a large number of co-seismic landslides in mountainous areas, but also have an important impact on the development level of geological hazards in the disaster area. Usually, geological hazards caused by strong earthquakes will significantly increase and continue for a considerable period of time before they recover to the pre-earthquake level. Therefore, studying the evolution characteristics of landslides triggered by earthquake is particularly important for the prevention of geological disaster. In this paper, a 66km2 region in Yingxiu near the epicenter of the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, which was strongly disturbed by the earthquake, was investigated. Firstly, one high-resolution satellite image before the earthquake(April, 2005)and five high-resolution satellite images after the earthquake(June, 2008; April, 2011; April, 2013; May, 2015; May, 2017)were used to interpret and catalog multi-temporal landslide inventories. Secondly, seven primary factors were analyzed in the GIS platform, including elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, stratum, lithology, and the distance from the nearest water system and the distance from seismogenic faults. Finally, the evolution of the landslide triggered by earthquake in this region was analyzed by comparing the landslide activity intensity in different periods, using the methods of correlation analysis, regression analysis, and single-factor statistical analysis. It was found that the total area of landslides in the study region decreased sharply from 2008 to 2017, with the area of the co-seismic landslide reducing from 21.41km2 to 1.33km2. This indicates that the magnitude of the landslides has recovered or is close to the pre-earthquake level. Moreover, correlation analysis shows that the elevation has a strong positive correlation with the distance from the nearest water system, and a weak positive correlation with the area. Meanwhile, there is a weak negative correlation between the distance from the nearest water system and the distance from seismogenic faults. Overall, the degree of landslide activity in the study region decreased over time, as well as the number of reactivated landslides and new landslides. The region where the area of earthquake triggered landslides decreased mainly concentrated at an elevation of 1 000m to 2 100m, a slope of 30° to 55°, an aspect of 40° to 180°, and a curvature of -2 to 2. In addition, the lithology of the Pengguan complex in the Yingxiu study region is more conducive to the occurrence of landslides, while the sedimentary rock is more conducive to the landslide recovery. When the distance from the nearest water system is more than 1 600m, the effect of the water system on the landslides gradually decreases. Also, the landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake in this area have the characteristics of the hanging wall effect, which means, the number of landslides in the northwestern region is much higher than that in the southeast side.
Although the landslides triggered during earthquake events are common phenomena in the southwest China, the occurrence of the Hongshiyan landslide triggered by the MS6.5 Ludian earthquake in 2014 is attractive for its giant volume which exceeds ten million cubic meters. The Hongshiyan landslide formed a quake lake and inundated a village. Based on the geological and geomophological data obtained through the immediate field investigation after the earthquake, we build the Hongshiyan slope model and at the same time, we apply numerical simulation to study the landslide formation. Result indicates that the Hongshiyan slope was at safe conditions with the Factor of safety (Fs) value greater than 1, but the ground seismic motion during the Ludian earthquake lowered its Fs to a value smaller than 1, which resulted in the occurrence of the landslide. Moreover, this study shows that an existing slip surface is important for generating a giant landslide, and steep slopes without existing slip surfaces are likely to generate shallow landslides with normal volumes.
Strong earthquake-induced landslides in mountainous region often cause serious damages to buildings, transportation route, lifeline engineering etc. It is one of the major reasons causing significant casualties and economic losses of property. For such serious and wide range disasters, doing classification for earthquake-induced landslide hazard zones is one of the effective methods for reducing losses. This paper, based on former studies, takes Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013 as a sample and selects Lushan County, Baoxing County and the surrounding area, which were influenced seriously by landslide, as a study area. This paper takes comprehensive indexes method to classify earthquake-induced landslide hazard zones for this area. There are 5 impact factors, including lithology, slope, seismic intensity, distances from faults and distances from drainages, are selected and weight is determined for each factor by AHP (the Analytic Hierarchy Process). The study area then is classified into 4 levels of hazards zones by comprehensive indexes method to indicate possibilities of triggering landslide in region under the suffering from given seismic intensities. The paper makes a comparison between the existing landslide sites map and the earthquake-induced landslide hazard zoning map. The results show a relatively high match between the two maps (about 77% landslide sites are in the higher hazard zones and highest hazard zones). This research will provide a reference for emergency response of earthquake-induced landslide disaster, prediction of earthquake-induced landslides in mountainous area and prevention of landslide disaster.
As a kind of secondary disasters caused by strong earthquakes,earthquake-triggered landslide has drawn much attention in the world because of severe hazards it causes. The 2013 Lushan,China,earthquake triggered lots of landslides and provided an opportunity to test various kinds of methods which have been used in earthquake triggered landslides assessment. Based on the high-resolution satellite images and aerial photos,we preliminarily interpret landslides in the damaged region. It is found that almost all of the landslides took place in the area with seismic intensity above Ⅶ.Spatially,the triggered landslides are controlled by the causative faults in their distribution and mainly concentrate around the epicenter. Based on the Newmark's method model,critical acceleration ac is used to predict potential landslides. Comparing with the landslides occurrences in the study area,the result of our calculation proves that Newmark's model is effective in seismic hazards analysis. Also,the landslide affected area is estimated by several methods and the difference between them is discussed.
In order to study the genetic mechanism of the geohazards induced by rainfall-induced landslide and seismic landslide,the influence of the factors such as the texture of the slope,shape of the slope,vibration intensity,critical rainfall amount,on the slope failure is discussed,and the main models and processes of the slope failure under rainfall and earthquake are investigated,by the means of taking on-site simulation test for rainfall-induced landslide and seismic landslide. For rainfall-induced landslide,the critical rainfall amounts are determined for slopes of different angles. It is found that the critical rainfall amount and the slope angle follow logarithmic distribution. For seismic landslide,the slope failure extent is proportional to the angle of the slope,duration of vibration and the vibration intensity. The relation between landslide slope gradient and earthquake failure time is analyzed according to experimental data. It has been found by statistical analysis of landslides induced by the Wenchuan earthquake that the possibility of occurrence of landslide is greater in the slope with gradient greater than 30 degrees when the earthquake magnitude is above 4.The results of simulation experiment substantially meet the actual situation.
On May 12,2008,a huge earthquake(MS=8.0)named Wenchuan earthquake hit Sichuan Province in Southwest China and triggered thousands of landslides.Post-seismic investigation and analysis discovered some characteristics of the landslides' spatial distribution.Landslides occurred unevenly on both sides of Longmenshan Fault zone,which are reverse faults and responsible for the Wenchuan earthquake.The majority of the landslides are distributed on the hanging wall of Longmenshan central fault,while only 12%of the total occurring on the footwall.The higher density of landslide is located at both ends of the Longmenshan Faults as well as the middle section.Statistical studies also show the occurrence of landslides has close relationship with ground motion,slope gradient and rock properties and so on.The geological background and evolution history of Wenchuan earthquake region have controlled the local geological and topographical setting and affected the landslide distribution when the great earthquake took place.Due to the exceptionally high topographic gradient and geological features such as loose soil and fragile rocks,this region is notoriously prone to landslide.