Examining the spatial and temporal distribution of seismic activity holds significant importance for seismic risk assessment, particularly in regions prone to frequent and intense earthquakes such as the Sichuan-Yunnan region in China. It is widely recognized that earthquakes exhibit non-random patterns in both spatial and temporal dimensions.
Early scientists endeavored to predict earthquakes using statistical principles, leading to the development of various forecasting methods. Among these, the Relative Intensity(RI)and Pattern Informatics(PI)methods emerged as statistical approaches to earthquake prediction modeling. Essentially, both methods fall under the category of smoothing seismic activity models. They employ techniques to quantify temporal changes in seismic activity graphs, generating maps that highlight areas(hot spots)where earthquakes may occur during specific future periods. While the RI algorithm’s theory is straightforward, its forecasting efficacy is robust, particularly notable in predicting major earthquakes, demonstrating similar advantages to the PI algorithm. Widely adopted globally for proactive predictions across diverse tectonic systems, it has shown commendable results in seismic forecasting practices both domestically and internationally. Over years of development, its predictive performance has gained prominence. However, further research is needed to assess its suitability for predicting minor seismic events in low-seismicity zones. Additionally, its successful application hinges on background seismic activity and the selection of target magnitudes.
To aid seismic activity prediction in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and identify potential future seismic source areas, a comprehensive parameter analysis was conducted using the Relative Intensity(RI)algorithm with the parameter traversal test(PTT). The RI algorithm operates on the premise that the predicted intensity of future earthquakes in a given region closely mirrors the intensity of past earthquakes. While it may not explicitly consider the “active” and “quiet” characteristics of seismic activity, as a fundamental prediction algorithm, it often yields improved prediction outcomes when applied to assess seismic probability in regions with high seismic activity, such as the Sichuan-Yunnan region.
In this study, the statistical-based Relative Intensity(RI)algorithm is employed to calculate the relative intensity of earthquakes based on quantitative earthquake characteristics. The study involves gridding the investigated area and statistically analyzing historical earthquake occurrences within each grid unit under specific magnitude conditions to inform predictions of future earthquake frequencies. The research focuses on evaluating the influence of four key model parameters: grid size, length of the anomalous learning window, starting point of the prediction window, and length of the prediction window, on the algorithm’s prediction efficiency. Furthermore, the study investigates the applicability of the RI algorithm to the Sichuan-Yunnan regions in China. The results yield two significant findings:
(1)The integration of the Relative Intensity(RI)algorithm with the Parameter Traversal Test(PTT)yielded significantly improved results compared to random guessing, primarily due to its optimized parameter selections. These parameters include the grid size, length of the anomalous learning time window, starting time of the prediction time window, and length of the prediction time window.
(2)The parameters of the prediction model exhibit a degree of stability and demonstrate predictive capability for seismic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan region over the next 1-5 years. The study revealed specific rules and effective parameter intervals applicable to earthquake-prone areas in Sichuan-Yunnan.
The findings suggest that the integration of the Relative Intensity(RI)algorithm with the Parameter Traversal Test(PTT)holds promise for predicting seismic activities in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. This approach enhances the pool of references available for predicting earthquake trends in regions prone to frequent and intense earthquakes. Further research on the RI algorithm is anticipated to yield a more refined numerical model for earthquake trend prediction, contributing to enhanced forecasting accuracy and preparedness in earthquake-prone areas.
The Tanlu fault zone is the most active fault zone in eastern China. It has been active mainly along the Anqiu-Juxian Fault(AJF)since the Quaternary. Predecessors have done a lot of research on the age, paleoearthquake and geometry structure of the AJF, but most of them focus on the exposed area of the fault, and relatively few studies on the buried section. Using field geological survey, shallow seismic exploration, drilling, and paleoearthquake trench, this paper focuses on the geometry structure of the Xinyi section(the buried section)of the AJF, and analyzes its geometry distribution characteristics in the plane and the structural relationship between the deep and the shallow parts, thus filling the gap of the activity characteristics of the Xinyi section of the AJF. The results show that the Xinyi section of the AJF can be divided into three sections from north to south: the Beimalingshan-Guanzhuang section, the Guanzhuang-Tangdian section and the Tangdian-Xindian section.The Xinyi section of the AJF, mainly manifested as strike-slip and normal faulting, has a right-handed and right-step distribution. The step-over zone with~900m in width and~16km in length is dominated by extension, leaving a length-width ratio of 18:1, much larger than the traditional pull-apart basin ratio of 3:1. According to the shallow seismic profile, the shallow seismic line in the Guanzhuang-Tangdian section revealed the extensional fault depression basin on the north side of the terrace, and the bedrock top of the basin gradually became shallower toward the north. The top of the bedrock in the shallow seismic survey line on the north side of the Nanmalingshan suddenly became deeper, and the NNE-trending compressional near-EW basins of the Nanmalingshan and Tashan developed. The two basins were formed from different origin. With the activity of the Anqiu-Juxian Fault and the erosion and deposition of the Shu River, the two basins gradually developed and merged into a composite basin, and the basin structure was consistent with the Quaternary stratigraphic isopach.The Xinyi section of the Anqiu-Juxian Fault presents the deformation characteristics of the same genesis and coordinated geometric structure in the deep and superficial layers, showing a single branch in the deep, cutting through the Cretaceous strata, extending and rupturing upward along the contact interface between the bedrock mountains and the Quaternary soft soil layer in the superficial layer. The fault is shown as a single branch in the north and south Maling Mountains, and ruptured to the surface in many places. In the pull-apart basin in the middle of the fault, the thickness of the Quaternary system is more than 300m. When the Anqiu-Juxian Fault ruptures to the upper part, it divides into two branches, the east and the west, which are concealed and stand opposite to each other in the shape of “Y”, forming the Anqiu-Juxian Fault. On the east-west boundary of the fault, the latest activity is along the west branch of the fault, which is a Holocene active fault. When it extends to the basement rock mass of the Maling Mountains in the north and south, the depth of the upper fault point gradually becomes shallower until it is exposed.The vertical movement of the Xinyi section of the AJF shows the four quadrants characteristics of uplift and subsidence. The extensional area forms a pull-apart basin, while the compressive area constitutes an uplift. The vertical bedrock offset of the Guanzhuang-Tangdian section, with the maximum vertical offset of~230m, gradually decreases to both sides. It can be concluded that the Xinyi section of the AJF presents a spiral-like pivot movement.
The fault F5 is considered as the most active fault in the Tanlu fault zone(Yi-Shu fault zone), which is located from Weifang of Shandong Province to Jiashan of Anhui Province, with a length of 360km. It has always been a focus of concern to many geoscientists because of its complexity and importance. But, for a long period of time, there exists biggish indetermination in the accurate position and active ages of the fault F5 in Suqian section of Tanlu fault zone. Seismic reflection exploration is the main technique in present urban active faults detecting. In order to investigate the spatial distribution, characteristics and activities of the fault F5 in covered terrains, we carried out a systematic survey to the fault with shallow seismic prospecting method and obtained the accurate position and development characteristics of the fault. The results show that the fault F5 continues to develop toward south rather than ending at the Huancheng South Road of Suqian City. F5 is mainly composed of two main faults, which dip in opposite directions and almost vertically. Near the Sankeshu town, F5 is composed of three faults with right-stepping, forming a small pull-apart basin with length of 6km, width of 2.5km, controlling the deposition of Neogene and Quaternary strata. By combining the results of composite drilling section and trenching, we make a conclusion that the western branch of fault F5 is a Holocene active fault, and the eastern branch is a Pleistocene active fault. Our general view is that fault F5 is a Holocene active fault.
Running diagonally across the urban area of Xuzhou, the Feihuanghe(the abandoned Yellow River)Fault starts from Jiahezhai in the northwest, extending southeastwards through Sushantou, Xuzhou City and Liangtang along the abandoned Yellow River till the north of Wangji Town of Suining County, striking NWW, dipping SW, with a total length of about 70 kilometers. It is a buried fault, crosscutting Xuzhou-arc structure. There are significant topographic features indicating the existence of the fault on the earth's surface, which are clearly displayed in remote sensing images. There have been no devastating earthquakes occurring along the fault since the recorded history. Feihuanghe Fault is one of the target faults of the project "Urban active fault exploration and seismic risk assessment in Xuzhou City". Few researches have been done on this fault in the past. The previous analysis assumes that the fault is a sinistral transtensional fault with extensional faulting in the Xuzhou-Suzhou arcuate structure at first and transtensional faulting of the Neocathaysian system later. Based on field geological survey, shallow seismic exploration and composite drilling section method, Quaternary activities of Feihuanghe Fault are analyzed. Shallow seismic exploration results show that the Feihuanghe Fault is composed of a NE-trending south branch and a SW-trending north branch, forming a graben structure with the width of 1~2km. All breakpoints of the Feihuanghe Fault on the seismic exploration profiles show that only the bedrock surface was dislocated, not the interior strata of the Quaternary. The composite drilling profiling results show that Feihuanghe Fault has dislocated the strata of Mid Pleistocene, but not the top surface of Mid Pleistocene. Furthermore, we discovered a secondary fault of Feihuanghe Fault exposed at Fengshan Hill, and its latest activity date is the mid period of Mid-Pleistocene inferred from the cementation degree of gouge, dating results and geomorphic features. Combining the above results, we conclude that Feihuanghe Fault is of sinistral strike-slip in the early stage, and extensional faulting since the Quaternary, and the latest activity date is the middle period of Mid Pleistocene. Controlled by the tectonic setting, the activities of the NW-trending faults in Xuzhou area are significantly weaker than that of the NW-trending fault in adjacent southwest Shandong.