With the advances in simulation techniques and understanding of geodynamic processes,numerical simulation is likely to play an increasingly important role in the research of seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction.In this paper,on the basis of the paper "A preliminary study on the application of numerical simulation methods to earthquake prediction research(Ⅰ)",the possible application of uncoordinated deformation analysis,Coulomb stress changes and earthquake probability modeling to the study of earthquake prediction is further discussed.When rock deforms from the elastic into the yield stage,the system is in a critical unstable state,the rock movement may deviate from the normal track and become complicated.The study results show that,before Wenan earthquake(M_S 5.1)on July 4,2006,GPS velocity was well consistent with the numerical simulation speed in most areas of North China,while there were some differences in some regions,especially in the northeast of the North China Plain block,where big inconsistency in movement characteristics occurred,resulting perhaps from the preparation of Wenan earthquake.Research on earthquakes triggered by Coulomb stress change is a focus problem now.Numerical simulation may play an important role in the analysis of Coulomb stress changes.By constructing three-dimensional dynamic model,the effect of various factors on the value and distribution of Coulomb stress change can be simulated,and more realistic results can be obtained.By numerical simulation of Coulomb stress changes to seismic activities beneath Sichuan Zipingpu reservoirs,it is found that with the increase of reservoir water storage time,the pore pressure diffusion in the effective additional stress field will be gradually expanded to the range of more than 10km underground.The regional effective additional stress field and seismic activities show different characteristics in several typical regions.The United States Southern California Earthquake Center has tried to study the earthquake probability as research objectives.It is worthy of referencing in China's earthquake research.Computer simulation of synthetic earthquake catalog is an effective way to solve the lack of data.The future direction of development should be a more realistic three-dimensional dynamic model,taking into account the multi-field coupling between heat,fluid and etc. ,improving hardware and software conditions and shortening the calculation time step,obtaining more complete information on fault movement,and simulating the fault activities.

Earthquake preparation and occurrence is a complex physical process.Although the earthquake abnormalities are varied,the strain energy accumulation is requisite before an earthquake.Earthquake prediction analysis must consider the strain energy accumulation process.As hard to go into the Earth's interior,direct measurement of stress and strain in deep focus is very difficulty.The use of numerical analysis,which constructs three-dimensional dynamic models of the crust and upper mantle to simulate the rock deformation process,is currently one of the most effective methods to study the crustal energy transfer and accumulation.The simulation result of current crustal deformation is consistent with the existing GPS data around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and its surrounding areas,in that the crustal horizontal displacement field of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rotates clockwise around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.Current effective stress concentration areas mainly distribute along the block boundary fault belts around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis,especially along the southeast section of Jiali Fault,Moto Fault,Apalong Fault,India-Myanmar subduction zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan border region.It should be noted the risk of future strong earthquakes in these areas.In the adjacent interconnected tectonic areas,the blocks and faults are interrelated and interacted each other.When an earthquake occurs in a region,the rapid displacement and deformation of rock will inevitably lead to displacement and deformation of the associated blocks and faults; strain energy will transfer from one region to others.The numerical simulation results of deformation process in the Capital area from 1989 to 1998 clearly show that the high strain energy concentration region shifted from Datong area where 1989 earthquake(M_S 5.8)occurred to Zhangbei area where 1998 earthquake happened.It illustrates that the application of numerical simulation analysis method may help us predict the possible strain energy transfer process,thus,providing the reference target regions for earthquake monitoring.

We select 15 earthquakes with M_S≥6.0 in Xinjiang since 1970 as "source earthquakes",and aftershocks of M_S≥4.0 as target aftershocks.Test analysis has been done on the static stress triggering model.The results show that the static stress triggering model is not so applicable in the Xinjiang region.For 80％of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is less than that in negative area; for 33％of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far less than that in negative area(the former is less than half of the latter); only for 13.3％of the source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far more than that in negative area(the former is twice of the latter).Even the uncertainties are considered,e.g.the focal depth of the source earthquakes,the fault plane orientation and the slip angle,the results are basically the same.In most shock events,target earthquakes in negative ΔCFS area are more in number than that occurred in the positive area,which does not accord with static stress triggering model.The further inference is that the short-term earthquake prediction based on stress and strain increment changes is limited.

The Toupo Fault,located in the southern Anhui Province,strikes N60°～70°E in a linear route that is clear on satellite image. It plays an important role in controlling the tectonics,topography and distribution of Mesozoic-Cenozoic basins and strata. Detailed field investigation was carried out along the Toupo Fault about its activity. Profiles as well as a trench excavated reveal that the Quaternary superstratum above the fault has not been offset. The stratum was sampled and dated with TL methods to be the Mid-Pleistocene time,implying that the fault has been no longer active since then. Three stages can be divided since the fault was formed,namely,the first stage (late Yanshan Movement),when the fault movement was of reversal left-lateral strike-slipping and the tracks formed then are still clear today; the second stage (early Himalayan Movement-the late Cretaceous-early Tertiary),when the fault movement turned to be normal faulting and the southern wall became a tensile basin and received clastic sediments; and the third stage (since the late Tertiary),when the tectonic movement was very week. No late Tertiary sediments were formed and the Quaternary sediment is only as thick as tens meters. The topography also suggests an old-age form. Neither vertical nor horizontal displacement was evident along Toupo Fault during this stage,though fault gouge dating suggests the Toupo Fault might have been active during the Middle Pleistocene.

The Bolokenu-Aqikekuduke Fault extends over 700km and obliquely cuts the North Tian Shan. The fault is quantitatively studied in this paper based on remote sensing data, field observation, and the analyses of the relationship between the morphology and the climate change. The fault is composed of two portions, the NW-striking western portion and the NWW-striking eastern portion. The western portion is right lateral strike-slip with a rate of 5mm/a, having a length of about 250km and extending northwestward into the Kazakhstan. Along the fault 3～4 rupture zones produced by Paleoearthquakes or historic earthquakes were found. It has the potential for generating strong earthquakes of Magnitude around 7.5. The NWW-striking fault of east portions is dominated by right lateral slip with a rate of 1～1.4mm/a. Relatively small rupture zones, no more than 10km long, were found along this fault. It has the potential for generating strong earthquake of magnitude around 7. The western section of the Bolokenu Aqikekuduke Fault is one of the major NW-striking right lateral strike-slip faults in central Asia, and it is the result of the regional clockwise shearing. It accommodates the different deformations between western and eastern Tianshan and transforms the tectonic deformation among different compressive area. The NWW-striking fault of eastern section was developed from the NWW-striking suture zone in Northern Tianshan. It is accompanied by the E-W-striking thrust system in the front of the mountains and makes up a typical strain partitioning style of the oblique compressive belt. The strain in the oblique compressive belt is partitioned into pediment thrust belt and intermontane strike-slip fault. They transform the deformation laterally along the mountains and directly toward the foreland basin.