SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY ›› 2011, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 660-669.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2011.03.015

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DENG Zhi-hui, SONG Jian, SUN Jun-xiu, TAO Jing-ling, HU Meng-qian, MA Xiao-jing, JIANG Hui, LI Hong   

  1. Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China
  • Received:2011-06-01 Revised:2011-08-22 Online:2011-09-29 Published:2011-12-16


邓志辉, 宋键, 孙君秀, 陶京玲, 胡勐乾, 马晓静, 姜辉, 李红   

  1. 中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029
  • 作者简介:邓志辉,男,1962年出生,1992年在国家地震局地质研究所获大地构造物理专业博士学位,研究员,现主要研究方向为构造物理、地震预测方法研究,电话010-62009089,E-mail: deng。
  • 基金资助:



Earthquake preparation and occurrence is a complex physical process.Although the earthquake abnormalities are varied,the strain energy accumulation is requisite before an earthquake.Earthquake prediction analysis must consider the strain energy accumulation process.As hard to go into the Earth's interior,direct measurement of stress and strain in deep focus is very difficulty.The use of numerical analysis,which constructs three-dimensional dynamic models of the crust and upper mantle to simulate the rock deformation process,is currently one of the most effective methods to study the crustal energy transfer and accumulation.The simulation result of current crustal deformation is consistent with the existing GPS data around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and its surrounding areas,in that the crustal horizontal displacement field of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rotates clockwise around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.Current effective stress concentration areas mainly distribute along the block boundary fault belts around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis,especially along the southeast section of Jiali Fault,Moto Fault,Apalong Fault,India-Myanmar subduction zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan border region.It should be noted the risk of future strong earthquakes in these areas.In the adjacent interconnected tectonic areas,the blocks and faults are interrelated and interacted each other.When an earthquake occurs in a region,the rapid displacement and deformation of rock will inevitably lead to displacement and deformation of the associated blocks and faults; strain energy will transfer from one region to others.The numerical simulation results of deformation process in the Capital area from 1989 to 1998 clearly show that the high strain energy concentration region shifted from Datong area where 1989 earthquake(MS 5.8)occurred to Zhangbei area where 1998 earthquake happened.It illustrates that the application of numerical simulation analysis method may help us predict the possible strain energy transfer process,thus,providing the reference target regions for earthquake monitoring.

Key words: earthquake prediction, numerical simulation, effective stress, strain energy density



关键词: 地震预测, 数值模拟, 等效应力, 应变能密度

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