From March 8th to 29th, 1966, five earthquakes(M≥6)occurred in the Xingtai area, with the MS6.8 earthquake on March 8th and the MS7.2 earthquake on March 22nd being the most severely damaged. The Xingtai earthquake resulted in over 8 000 deaths and the economic losses up to 1 billion yuan. The Xingtai earthquake has opened the scientific practice of earthquake prediction in China and is a milestone in the development of earthquake science in China.
Based on previous research results, there is a deep fault beneath the Xingtai earthquake area, which is the energy source of earthquakes, while there is a relatively independent fault system in the shallow part, which is generally recognized by scholars. However, the divergence regarding the seismogenic structure of the Xingtai earthquake mainly focuses on the unclear coupling relationship between the deep and shallow structural systems in the seismic area. The structural relationship between deep seismic faults and the shallow Xinhe Fault system requires new evidence to determine. In addition, previous scholars have proposed the viewpoint of “Newly generated Fault”, which can better explain the rupture characteristics of the Xingtai earthquake, but it still needs to be supported by the inversion results of the seismic rupture process based on the three-dimensional crustal fine structure. There are many small earthquakes in the Xingtai area. Deep structural information can be obtained using small earthquake data. Especially after 2009, the significant improvement in earthquake positioning accuracy in North China has made it possible to obtain new insights into deep structures. By locating small earthquakes, the spatial distribution and motion characteristics of faults are characterized, and seismic travel time tomography reveals the deep crustal velocity structure characteristics of the earthquake area. Combining previous geophysical exploration results, conducting deep and shallow structural analysis is of great significance for studying the spatial distribution, motion characteristics, and coupling relationship between deep and shallow structural systems of the fault system in the study area. The continuous aftershocks after the 1966 MS7.2 earthquake in Xingtai, Hebei Province, have provided favorable conditions for conducting studies on deep tectonic structures in the region.
In this paper, based on the observation data of the Hebei seismostation from 1991 to 2021, we obtained the precise position results of 9 644 earthquakes in Xingtai and its neighboring area using the double-difference positioning method, and depicted the spatial patterns of deep ruptures. Based on the observation data of the North China Mobile Seismic Array from 2006 to 2008, 38 578 P-wave arrivals were used to obtain high-resolution travel time tomography results in the study area. This study shows that there are strong lateral heterogeneities in the velocity structure of the crust in the study area, with obvious low-velocity anomalies in the upper crust and high-velocity anomalies in the middle and lower crusts between the Xinhe Fault and the Yuanshi Fault, and the Xingtai earthquake is located at the junction of the high- and low-velocity anomalies, which has the medium conditions for accumulating large amounts of strain energy and is prone to rupture and stress release. The general trend of the dense zone of small earthquakes in the Xingtai earthquake area is relatively consistent with that of the eastern boundary of the high- and low-velocity anomalies. It is assumed that the deep and shallow fractures spreading along the eastern boundary of the high- and low-velocity bodies have been connected up and down and that the boundary of the anomalies is also a part where velocity changes are relatively strong and easily lead to seismic rupture; the results of various seismic and geological surveys have revealed that a deep major rupture that cuts through the entire crust exists beneath the Xingtai earthquake zone, with SE tendency and the upper breakpoint located near Dongwang, and the Xingtai earthquake prompted the deep and shallow pre-existing ruptures to connect from top to bottom.
Through simultaneous inversion of earthquake hypocenters and velocity structure, we obtained the precise locations of earthquakes occurring from 1981 to 2013 in northern Shanxi and the 3D velocity structure, and analyzed emphatically the Kouquan Fault. The result of earthquake relocation shows that earthquakes are concentrated in the central-north segment of Kouquan Fault and the distribution is sparse towards both south and north end of the fault, which indicates that the strong activity is in the central-north segment of Kouquan Fault and the seismicity becomes weaker towards both ends. The result of velocity structure shows that the earthquake concentrated segment of Kouquan Fault is on the side of relative low-velocity area in the high-velocity body, and the south segment of Kouquan Fault is the continuous low velocity. We can recognize the velocity gradient zone from the obvious depression near the Kouquan Fault, which, as we preliminarily speculate, may be the evidence of the presence of Kouquan Fault(or basement detachment)at the deep part. The parallel velocity profile (velocity ratio profile) to Kouquan Fault shows that the earthquake cluster in the central-north segment of Kouquan Fault is located in the abrupt change zone from high to low velocity(from high to low velocity ratio).
With the advances in simulation techniques and understanding of geodynamic processes,numerical simulation is likely to play an increasingly important role in the research of seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction.In this paper,on the basis of the paper "A preliminary study on the application of numerical simulation methods to earthquake prediction research(Ⅰ)",the possible application of uncoordinated deformation analysis,Coulomb stress changes and earthquake probability modeling to the study of earthquake prediction is further discussed.When rock deforms from the elastic into the yield stage,the system is in a critical unstable state,the rock movement may deviate from the normal track and become complicated.The study results show that,before Wenan earthquake(MS 5.1)on July 4,2006,GPS velocity was well consistent with the numerical simulation speed in most areas of North China,while there were some differences in some regions,especially in the northeast of the North China Plain block,where big inconsistency in movement characteristics occurred,resulting perhaps from the preparation of Wenan earthquake.Research on earthquakes triggered by Coulomb stress change is a focus problem now.Numerical simulation may play an important role in the analysis of Coulomb stress changes.By constructing three-dimensional dynamic model,the effect of various factors on the value and distribution of Coulomb stress change can be simulated,and more realistic results can be obtained.By numerical simulation of Coulomb stress changes to seismic activities beneath Sichuan Zipingpu reservoirs,it is found that with the increase of reservoir water storage time,the pore pressure diffusion in the effective additional stress field will be gradually expanded to the range of more than 10km underground.The regional effective additional stress field and seismic activities show different characteristics in several typical regions.The United States Southern California Earthquake Center has tried to study the earthquake probability as research objectives.It is worthy of referencing in China's earthquake research.Computer simulation of synthetic earthquake catalog is an effective way to solve the lack of data.The future direction of development should be a more realistic three-dimensional dynamic model,taking into account the multi-field coupling between heat,fluid and etc. ,improving hardware and software conditions and shortening the calculation time step,obtaining more complete information on fault movement,and simulating the fault activities.
Earthquake preparation and occurrence is a complex physical process.Although the earthquake abnormalities are varied,the strain energy accumulation is requisite before an earthquake.Earthquake prediction analysis must consider the strain energy accumulation process.As hard to go into the Earth's interior,direct measurement of stress and strain in deep focus is very difficulty.The use of numerical analysis,which constructs three-dimensional dynamic models of the crust and upper mantle to simulate the rock deformation process,is currently one of the most effective methods to study the crustal energy transfer and accumulation.The simulation result of current crustal deformation is consistent with the existing GPS data around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and its surrounding areas,in that the crustal horizontal displacement field of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rotates clockwise around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.Current effective stress concentration areas mainly distribute along the block boundary fault belts around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis,especially along the southeast section of Jiali Fault,Moto Fault,Apalong Fault,India-Myanmar subduction zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan border region.It should be noted the risk of future strong earthquakes in these areas.In the adjacent interconnected tectonic areas,the blocks and faults are interrelated and interacted each other.When an earthquake occurs in a region,the rapid displacement and deformation of rock will inevitably lead to displacement and deformation of the associated blocks and faults; strain energy will transfer from one region to others.The numerical simulation results of deformation process in the Capital area from 1989 to 1998 clearly show that the high strain energy concentration region shifted from Datong area where 1989 earthquake(MS 5.8)occurred to Zhangbei area where 1998 earthquake happened.It illustrates that the application of numerical simulation analysis method may help us predict the possible strain energy transfer process,thus,providing the reference target regions for earthquake monitoring.