Reservoir induced earthquakes (RIE) are caused by impoundment of reservoir,with the characteristics of small magnitude and shallow focal depth,but they can also lead to not only economic loss,but also many serious secondary disasters,such as dam destruction,landslide,producing greater damages far more than the damages directly produced by earthquakes.So study on RIE is quite significant in the field of dam construction,thus more attentions should be paid to RIE.There are many factors to induce reservoir earthquakes,such as geological condition,rock mass mechanical index,state of crustal stress,pore pressure distribution,all of which are extremely difficult to measure due to the presence of many randomness;even if applying most advanced methods to measure them,the values fluctuate in great range,without a certain value in time and space.The great variety of these parameters gives rise to troubles to analyze RIE by deterministic approaches.How to handle the randomness of these factors has become vital problem in the field of RIE research.In this study,based on probability theory,and taking the main influence factors as stochastic variables,a new method to analyze probability of RIE was proposed by applying reliability theory.Firstly,the factors inducing reservoir earthquakes were analyzed,of which pore pressure in fault caused by water impounding of reservoir plays a vital role in triggering earthquakes.Then,taking these factors,including attitude,friction coefficient,cohesion of fault plane,stress state of fault plane and pore pressure in fault,as stochastic variables,performance function of triggering earthquakes was established by applying Coulomb stress on the fault plane,and reliability theory was used to analyze probability of earthquake induced by main factors.A special case analysis showed that:(1) The probability of induced earthquakes dramatically increases as pore pressure in fault increases;under the condition of equal pore pressure at triggering earthquakes area,probability of induced earthquakes obviously rises with enlarging of variation of pore pressure;(2) those faults with strike approximately parallel to horizontal maximum principal stress direction or with steep dip angle about more than 60° are prone to inducing earthquake;(3) as horizontal minimum principal stress increases,which has greater effect on induced earthquakes than horizontal maximum principal stress,probability of induced earthquakes becomes lower and fault keeps in more stable condition;(4) probability of induced earthquakes gradually decreases with the increase of friction coefficient and cohesion of fault plane;However,the effect of friction coefficient on induced earthquakes is much greater than the cohesion of fault plane.
On April 20,2013,a strong earthquake of MS 7.0 struck the Lushan County,Sichuan Province of China. In this paper,basic information of the April 20,2013 Lushan earthquake,historical earthquakes in the Lushan earthquake struck area and associated historical earthquake-triggered landslides were introduced firstly. We delineated the probable spatial distribution boundary of landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake based on correlations between the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake-triggered landslides and associated peak ground acceleration(PGA).According to earthquake-triggered landslides classification principles,landslides triggered by the earthquake are divided into three main categories: disrupted landslides,coherent landslides,and flow landslides. The first main category includes five types: rock falls,disrupted rock slides,rock avalanches,soil falls,and disrupted soil slides. The second main category includes two types of soil slumps and slow earth flows. The type of flow landslides is mainly rapid flow slides. Three disrupted landslides,including rock falls,disrupted rock slides,and soil falls are the most common types of landslides triggered by the earthquake. We preliminary mapped 3883 landslides based on available high-resolution aerial photographs taken soon after the earthquake. In addition,the effect of aftershocks on the landslides,comparisons of landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake with landslides triggered by other earthquake events,and guidance for subsequent landslides detailed interpretation based on high-resolution remote sensing images were discussed respectively. In conclusion,based on quick field investigations to the Lushan earthquake,the classifications,morphology of source area,motion and accumulation area of many earthquake-triggered landslides were recorded before the landslide might be reconstructed by human factors,aftershocks,and rainfall etc. It has important significance to earthquake-triggered landslide hazard mitigation in earthquake struck area and the scientific research of subsequent landslides related to the Lushan earthquake.
The co-seismic surface rupture signs of the "4.20" Lushan MS7.0 earthquake are found at Longmen Township,Lushan County. The sites of rupture signs have a linear distribution with a 2~3km length and N40°~50°N strike. The maximum shortening of the rupture is about 8cm,uplifting is about 1~2cm. Strike-slip component is not observed,but the dynamic process of the earthquake is characterized by compression from northwest to southeast. The observed co-seismic surface ruptures can be oblique shear-fissure,or thrusting crack,however most of them are extensive fissures,which can be explained by the local extensive stress-field on the top of the thrust bending. Although these ruptures have different geometric shapes or variant mechanic features,they similarly reflect the northwest-southeast compression and the surface lift-bending on the top of a thrusting seismogenic structure. Comparing with Dachuan-Shuangshi Fault(frontal fault)and Dayi-Mingshan Fault(piedmont fault),Lushan-Longmen presumed blind fault is more likely the seismogenic fault,which is also consistent with the results of the Lushan earthquake sequence relocations and the seismic intensity contours. As the seismogenic fault of the Lushan earthquake has surpassed the frontal fault of Longmen Shan,it may be a new-generated tectonics,which implies that it is important to re-evaluate the seismic risk at the piedmont area of the Longmen Shan. However,the conclusions are still very primary and geophysical survey is needed to demonstrate the existence of the Lushan-Longmen presumed blind fault.