Earthquake Early Warning(EEW)is the rapid acquisition of earthquake epicenter, magnitude, and occurrence time after a destructive earthquake has started to issue alerts to the public before the arrival of transverse waves and long-period surface waves. Magnitude estimation plays a significant role in EEW algorithm research, serving as a fundamental component for early warning, post-earthquake disaster assessment, and emergency response. Seismic monitoring methods primarily focus on technologies like High-rate Global Navigation Satellite System (HR-GNSS) and strong-motion instruments. HR-GNSS is capable of capturing high-precision ground deformation signals and offers the advantages of a non-saturation recording range, making it crucial for rapid estimation of earthquake magnitudes during major seismic events. However, due to the low GNSS sampling rate and high instrument noise, observational noise often overshadows the deformation signals obtained during low-magnitude earthquakes. Additionally, the sparse distribution of GNSS stations currently impacts the accuracy and timeliness of magnitude estimation. Strong-motion observation methods, characterized by high sampling rates, low noise, and dense station distribution, are widely applied in magnitude estimation. Prevalent methods for strong-motion magnitude estimation often rely on P-wave arrival time information for timely determination of magnitude, commonly used in earthquake early warning systems. Yet, these methods are susceptible to saturation effects, leading to underestimation of magnitudes for large earthquakes. Moment magnitude estimation methods are closely associated with rupture characteristics of the seismic source and hold clear physical significance. However, determining this magnitude necessitates knowledge of the rupture extent and slip distribution along the fault plane, which are challenging to precisely obtain at the moment of earthquake occurrence. Hence, such methods are generally employed for post-event magnitude calculations.
Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a novel method for rapidly estimating earthquake magnitudes using Peak Ground Velocity(PGV)derived from strong motion. First, a comprehensive dataset of strong-motion acceleration records is compiled, covering nearly 20 years and including 5 596 records from 23 global seismic events with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 9.0. These records encompass epicentral distances from 1km to 1 000km, with source depths within 60km. A uniform processing approach is applied to standardize the records in terms of time domain orientation, measurement units(converted to cm/s2), and file formats. Data from each station is categorized into three directions: East-West(EW), North-South(NS), and Vertical(UD). Subsequently, the data is converted into the Seismic Analysis Code(SAC)file format, which is specialized for digital seismic waveform data exchange. Ensuring accurate PGV measurements from strong-motion data involves meticulous data preprocessing. This includes removing the mean acceleration from the first 5 seconds before the seismic event for simple bias correction, followed by baseline correction using a high-pass filter with a cutoff frequency of 0.02Hz. The preprocessed strong-motion acceleration records are then integrated to obtain velocity, enabling the measurement of PGV. A robust PGV-based magnitude estimation model, suitable for rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, is constructed using the least-squares regression method.
Furthermore, the constructed PGV-based magnitude estimation model undergoes comprehensive experimental analysis. Initially, the residuals between observed PGV values from 5596 strong-motion records and PGV values predicted by the regression model are computed to evaluate the precision of the constructed PGV-based magnitude estimation model. The model is validated using four earthquake events not included in its construction: the 2021 Damasi MW6.3 earthquake, the 2012 Nicoya MW7.6 earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan MW7.9 earthquake, and the 2014 Iquique MW8.2 earthquake. This validation process assesses the reliability of the constructed magnitude estimation model. Finally, the paper conducts a study on rapid magnitude estimation to evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of the PGV-based magnitude estimation model within this context.
The experimental results indicate that the predicted values of strong-motion PGV are largely consistent with the observed values for 23 seismic events, with a root mean square error of residuals measuring 0.296. For the four seismic events that were not included in the modeling process, the estimated magnitudes based on strong-motion PGV correspond closely to the moment magnitudes reported by the United States Geological Survey(USGS). The absolute deviations for these events are 0.15, 0.14, 0.05, and 0.13 magnitude units, with an average absolute deviation of 0.12 magnitude units. In the investigation of rapid magnitude estimation, the following outcomes were observed: For the Damasi MW6.3 earthquake, an initial magnitude of 5.03 was calculated at 13 seconds, approaching the theoretical magnitude at 63 seconds, and reaching a convergent magnitude of 6.09 at 76 seconds. Regarding the Nicoya MW7.6 earthquake, a preliminary magnitude of 4.57 was computed within 6 seconds, approximating the theoretical magnitude at 30 seconds, and converging to 7.46 at 50 seconds. In the case of the Wenchuan MW7.9 earthquake, a preliminary magnitude of 4.06 was determined within 19 seconds. At 50 seconds, the calculated magnitude approached the theoretical value, and it converged to 7.81 at 84 seconds. For the Iquique MW8.2 earthquake, an initial magnitude of 6.45 was estimated within 2 seconds, nearing the theoretical magnitude at 55 seconds, and achieving a convergent magnitude of 8.04 at 70 seconds. The convergence time for rapid magnitude estimation for all four events was consistently under 90 seconds.
This experimental findings underscore the applicability of the constructed PGV-based magnitude estimation model for rapid earthquake magnitude estimation. The model's ability to counter saturation effects and prevent magnitude underestimation reinforces its robustness and offers substantial technical support for earthquake early warning systems and post-earthquake emergency response strategies.
The 1739 M8.0 Pingluo earthquake is the largest destructive earthquake occurring on the Yinchuan plain in history. However, there are different understandings about the seismogenic structure of this earthquake. In this paper, we re-evaluate the seismogenic structure of the 1739 M8.0 Pingluo earthquake after our investigation and detailed measurement of the seismic dislocations on the Great Wall and the surrounding tableland, and also the latest results of trenching, drilling, and shallow seismic exploration are considered as well. The results show that the latest rupture event of the Helanshan piedmont fault occurred after 600~700a BP, the Great Wall built in Ming Dynasty about 500 years ago was faulted by Helanshan piedmont fault. Although the distribution of Yinchuan buried fault coincides much with the distribution of the meizoseismal area, the fault's northward extending stopped at Yaofu town, and its Holocene active segment is less than 36km in length. The latest surface rupture occurred shortly before 3400a BP. The 1739 Pingluo earthquake did not rupture the ground surface along the Yinchuan buried fault. The presence of growth strata and the non-synchronous deformation of strata near the fault demonstrate that Yinchuan buried fault did not rupture at all or there was rupture but absorbed by the loose layers in the 1739 Pingluo earthquake. Therefore, the Helanshan piedmont fault is the seismogenic structure of the 1739 M8 Pingluo earthquake, rather than the Yinchuan buried fault, and there is no synchronous rupture between two faults. The difference of location between the seismogenic structures and the meizoseismal area of the Pingluo M8 earthquake may be caused by the factors, such as fault dip, groundwater depth, basin structure, loose formations, the degree of residents gathering, so on. The phenomenon that the meizoseismal area shifts to the center of the basin of earthquake generated by faulting of a listric fault on the boundary of the basin should be paid more attention to in seismic fortification in similar areas.
Based on the discussions on the basic ideas, methods and procedures for detecting buried faults and taking the example of Luhuatai buried faults in Yinchuan Basin, the paper introduces in detail the multi-means, multi-level detection methods for gradually determining the accurate location of faults. Multi-means refer to the technical methods such as shallow seismic exploration, composite drilling section, trenching, dating of sedimentary strata samples and calculation of upward continuation of fault's upper breakpoints, etc. Multi-levels refer to gradually determining accurate location of fault at different levels with the above means. Results of shallow seismic exploration reveal that the Luhuatai buried fault has a strike of NNE in general, dip SEE, with the dip angle between 73° to 78°. Geometrically, the fault consists of a main fault and a small north-segment fault in plane. The main fault runs along the NNE direction from Xixia District of Yinchuan City, passing through Jinshan Township to Chonggang Township, and there is a 4km or so intermittent zone between the main fault and the small north-segment fault. The small north-segment fault is 9km long, distributed between the north of Chonggang Township to the south of Shizuishan City. According to dating of sediments sampled from drill holes, the main fault can be further divided into the southern segment and the northern segment. The southern segment of Luhuatai buried fault is active in Pleistocene, while the northern segment is active in Holocene. Shallow seismic exploration can detect the upper breakpoint of fault deeper than drilling or trenching does. If simply connecting the vertical projections of these breakpoints on the surface, there is a certain bias of fault strike. To this end, we did accurate location for the Holocene active northern segment of Luhuatai buried fault, in which upward continuation calculation is done based on the fault dip to match the upper breakpoint of fault obtained from shallow seismic exploration with the depth of the upper breakpoints obtained from drilling. Through the accurate location of the fault, we get the geometric distribution, occurrence and segmentation of activity of Luhuatai buried fault at the near-surface. Our results provide reliable basis for the safety distance from active faults for engineering construction projects in the Luhuatai buried fault area of Shizuishan City. The methods discussed in this paper for accurate location of buried active faults are of reference value for buried fault exploration in other similar cities or regions.
In this paper,an optimized drilling exploration method,the doubling section method,was summarized after many composite drilling section explorations of buried active fault in urban areas.Operation steps of this method are as follows: Firstly,drill a borehole at each of the two ends of the drilling section to make sure that fault is between the two boreholes,then,drill the third borehole at the middle of the two holes; and secondly,confirm again the segment where the fault is and drill the next borehole in the middle of it.By repeating the similar practice,the accurate location of fault can be constrained progressively.Meanwhile,this paper also uses a quantitative indicator,the key horizon gradient between two boreholes,instead of stratigraphic throw,to determine the location of buried fault and puts forward two criterions: 1)the fault is located between two boreholes if the key horizon gradients between these two boreholes are positive and increase with depth; and 2)the fault is located where the key horizon gradients between two boreholes increase obviously relative to the previous values and that of adjacent segments,besides the increase with depth.While in contrast,the key horizon gradient in a normal fault segment decreases obviously.Application cases show that the method can determine precisely the location of buried active fault.