Abstract:

Earthquake prediction and forecasting need to transform from the traditional empirical, qualitative, and semi-quantitative to quantitative. The improvement also calls for multi-disciplinary, highly integrated physical and mechanical simulations rather than only a single discipline. The global development of observation technology and the construction of observation networks have already built a data foundation for earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting to a certain extent. However, the biggest constraint is the difficulty of synthesizing a large amount of observation data and quickly establishing complex numerical models with geological significance for numerical calculation. It is a vital issue restricting experimental research and industry development of earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting. Based on a brief introduction of the concept, development, and research status of earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting, this paper analyzes the difficulties in numerical modeling, which essentially come from the disciplinary differences between active tectonics, structural geology, solid earth, seismology, and numerical simulations. The development of 3D Geoscience Modeling and its application in the earthquake industry can establish a large-scale complex earthquake tectonic model close to the real world with geological significance. It provides a significant opportunity and technical means for developing earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting by solving the problems in numerical modeling. 3D geological modeling has built a bridge for multi-disciplinary geological applications. It can multi-disciplinary data fusion, establish a 3D geological model with geological significance and characteristics in line with geomechanical characteristics, and integrate data, geological model, up to building a numerical model, which advances the efficiency of modeling and simulation. Therefore, the rapid development of 3D geological modeling provides an opportunity to solve the modeling difficulties mentioned above in earthquake numerical prediction. Then, we briefly describe the development of 3D geological modeling technology, its application in the seismic industry, and the construction and application of 3D standard fault models domestically and overseas. Here, we introduced the development and essential contents of the Community Fault Model of Southern California in the United States for the Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, the New Zealand Community Fault Model from the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited, and the Community Fault Model in Sichuan and Yunnan region in China.

The prospective future of 3D geological modeling and its potential application in earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting makes it a common concern of researchers in earthquake science. The five future modeling trends are the joint modeling of multi-source and multi-precision heterogeneous data, the integrated modeling of the geological model-attribute model-numerical model, flat fault structure modeling, 3D fault structure modeling, data-model-calculation iteration, and mutual driving. Finally, the paper describes the difficulties of applying the 3D geological modeling technique in earthquake numerical prediction and forecasting, including the industry construction, public approval of the 3D Community Fault Model, and the variations of numerical modeling and applications. 3D geological modeling technology can provide more realistic numerical and geometric models for earthquake numerical prediction, forecasting, and related numerical computing fields, reduce construction periods, create fast iterations, and solve modeling difficulties.

Key words: 3D geoscience modeling, earthquake numerical forecasting, 3D community fault model, numerical simulation

摘要：

地震预测预报亟需从经验性预测向数值预测转变, 但是建模难的问题制约了地震数值预测的发展和行业应用。三维地质建模技术的发展及其在地震行业的应用, 为地震数值预测带来了解决模型问题的机遇。文中从地震数值预测的概念、 发展历程和现状入手, 简述了地震数值预测目前存在的难点。随后简述了三维地质建模技术的发展和在地震行业的应用, 以及国内外三维公共断层模型的构建和应用情况。结合以上2部分内容, 对如何利用三维地质建模技术解决地震数值预测中的难点问题进行了展望, 包括多源多精度异构数据的联合建模、 地质模型-属性模型-数值模型一体化建模、 平直断层结构建模、 三维断层结构建模、 数据-模型-计算的迭代与相互驱动等。最后简述了三维地质建模在地震数值预测应用中的难点。三维地质建模技术有望为地震数值预测及相关数值计算领域提供更逼近现实的数值模型和几何模型, 可缩短建模工期, 实现快速更新迭代, 从而解决建模难的问题。

关键词: 三维地质建模, 地震数值预测, 三维公共断层模型, 数值模拟