Abstract: Base on the conditions of geology,seismicity and engineering of reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity is evaluated during the phase of reservoir designing.According to the data of case of RIS in the world,the time of the largest induced earthquake is predicted .When a reservoir induced earthquake occurs,the possibility of destruction induced earthquake is predicted.

Key words: Reservoir earthquake, Earthquake prediction, Safety assesment of reservoirs

摘要： 从三方面对水库诱发地震进行预测:根椐水库区的地质、地震和工程条件,在水库的设计阶段进行诱发地震的前期评价预测;按国内外已有震例资料预测可能诱发地震的水库发生最大地震的时间;在已初发震的水库对地震的发展趋势和破坏性地震的可能性进行预测。

关键词: 水库地震, 地震预报, 水库安全性评价