The Xiaojiang fault zone is the southernmost branch fault of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang left-lateral strike-slip fault system, together with the Xianshuihe Fault, the Anninghe Fault and the Zemuhe Fault, which forms the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block on the southeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and plays an important role in accommodating the clockwise rotation around the eastern Himalayan syntaxis and S-SE extrusion of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. The scientific understanding of geometric structures, the slip rate, the strong earthquake recurrence and the mechanism of deformation compatibility of different segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone, especially the intersection with the Red River fault zone, remains highly debated. In order to better understand the role of the Xiaojiang fault zone in the process of material extrusion of the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, based on the systematic summary of previous research results about the Xiaojiang fault zone, topographic relief and slope in the study area were extracted, and combined with geomorphological characteristics analysis, the geometric structure and kinematic characteristics, strike-slip rate at different time scales, seismic activity and deformation coordination with the Red River fault zone of the Xiaojiang fault zone are combed and summarized. combined with geomorphological characteristics analysis by extracting the relief and slope of the study area. The geometric segments and the late Quaternary activity characteristics of each segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone are described in detail. Then, we mainly reviewed the slip-rates at different timescales(geodetic scale, late Quaternary scale, and long time scale) of the Xiaojiang fault zone and their spatio-temporal variations. The seismicity characteristics of the Xiaojiang fault zone are summarized from three aspects: Paleoearthquakes, historical earthquakes and present earthquakes. The geometric relationship, deformation decomposition and transformation of faults at the intersection of the Xiaojiang fault zone and the Red River fault zone are analyzed. Besides, the geometric and kinematic characteristics of the deformation of the Xiaojiang fault zone and the coupling relationship between deep and shallow tectonic deformation are discussed, combined with geomorphic feature analysis. At last, he risk of future strong earthquakes in the Xiaojiang fault zone is discussed based on the results of previous studies on heterogeneous interseismic coupling along the Xiaojiang fault zone, etc. Through comprehensive analysis, it is concluded that the geometric and kinematic characteristics of the Xiaojiang fault zone are consistent with a clockwise rotation of the Sichuan-Yunnan block about the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. The deep tectonic process has an obvious controlling effect on the shallow tectonic deformation, and the Xiaojiang fault zone has a profound influence on the crustal structure, the deformation of the medium and the process of material migration. As the southeast boundary fault of the Sichuan-Yunnan block, the Xiaojiang fault zone has well restricted the S-SE movement of crustal material during the process of extrusion from the southeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau to the east. The results show that the strike adjustment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, the change of movement characteristics, the spatio-temporal evolution of strike-slip rate, the segmentation of geomorphic parameters and the distribution of seismic activity are highly consistent with the clockwise rotation direction of the Sichuan-Yunnan block around the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. There is an obvious coupling relationship between deep tectonic action and shallow tectonic deformation in the Xiaojiang fault zone. The risk of strong earthquakes is high in the Xiaojiang fault zone, especially in the Qiaojia-Dongchuan area in the north and the confluence area of the Red River fault zone in the south. The probability of strong earthquakes in the future is increasing in each section of the Xiaojiang fault zone, especially in the northern section of the Qiaojia-Dongchuan fault zone and the intersection of the Red River fault zone and the Xiaojiang fault zone, the risk of strong earthquakes in the future is high, which should be paid great attention to.
The duration of the aftershock sequence following large earthquakes is a crucial issue in seismicity research and is significant for seismic hazard estimation. Previous studies based on three large earthquakes that occurred since 1966 have provided important insights into aftershock activity and duration in North China. However, understanding the persistence of aftershock sequences following historical large earthquakes remains limited. In this study, we aim to comprehensively study the duration of long-lived aftershocks following large earthquake sequences in North China. Based on the modern earthquake catalog from 1970 to 2022, combined with historical earthquake records, we systematically investigate the aftershock characteristics of six large earthquakes with a magnitude of M≥7 in North China, including the 1668 Tancheng M8½, 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8, 1937 Heze M7.0, 1966 Xingtai MS7.2, 1975 Haicheng MS7.3, and 1976 Tangshan MS7.8 earthquakes.
The determination of the aftershock zone is crucial in this study. We conducted a thorough review of existing research on earthquake rupture, including field investigations, fault slip inversions, and aftershocks distribution. By synthesizing these results with the seismic catalog data used in this study, we selected the aftershock zones. According to the analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes, temporal frequency variation, and data fitting based on the Omori-Utsu law, our study shows that the aftershocks of the six large earthquakes are still ongoing.
The aftershock zones of the Xingtai MS7.2 and Haicheng MS7.3 earthquakes are dominated by events with magnitudes around ML≥3. In contrast, ML≥4 earthquakes at a rate of approximately 1.5 events/a from 2013 to 2022 are observed in the Tangshan MS7.8 aftershock zone. We fit the data of the Haicheng and Tangshan earthquake sequences according to the Omori-Utsu law. The p value is around 0.8, indicating a slow decaying rate. For historical earthquakes, the spatial-temporal distribution of events indicates that aftershocks are alive. In the aftershock zone of the 1668 Tancheng M8 earthquake, an average of 0.63 earthquakes/a with ML≥3.0 occurred from 2013 to 2022. Additionally, the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu aftershocks with magnitudes ML≤2 are still active. Following the 1937 Heze M7 earthquake in Shandong Province, a MS5.9 strong aftershock occurred in 1983. The aftershock zone records an average of 1.8 earthquakes/a with ML≥2.0 during the last decade, which is higher than the rate in surrounding areas. Hence, the aftershock sequences of the Tancheng and Sanhe-Pinggu earthquakes have persisted for 354 and 343 years, respectively, and the Heze earthquake sequence has lasted for nearly 90 years.
According to the rate-and-state friction law, we deduce that the aftershocks can last for more than 300 years with a fault slip rate less than 1mm/a. This also supports the ongoing long-lived sequences of the 1668 Tancheng and the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu earthquakes. The tectonic loading rate in North China is slow, causing a long recurrence interval of large earthquakes, as well as the slow decaying of aftershocks.
In all, our results indicate that aftershock sequences following M≥8 earthquakes in North China can persist for over 300 years, and the aftershock sequences of M>7 earthquakes such as the Xingtai, Haicheng, and Tangshan earthquakes, will continue for a long period. This study provides us with a further understanding of the aftershock decay in North China.
The aftershock sequences of the Tancheng and Sanhe-Pinggu earthquakes have persisted for 354 and 343 years, respectively; the Heze earthquake sequence has lasted for nearly 90 years; and the Xingtai, Haicheng, and Tangshan regions remain seismically active with frequent small earthquakes. These findings indicate that aftershock sequences of M≥8 earthquakes in North China can persist for over 300 years, and thoses of modern large earthquakes, such as Xingtai, Haicheng, and Tangshan, will continue for a long period.
Since the Late Pleistocene, the North China Plain, far from plate boundaries, has experienced a transformation in its geodynamic environment, with most pre-existing normal faults no longer adapting to the new tectonic stress field and thus becoming inactive. However, historical and modern earthquake catalogues indicate that the epicenters of many strong earthquakes occur near pre-existing buried normal faults on the North China Plain. There is currently a debate over whether strong earthquakes are caused by the continued activity of these pre-existing faults or by new faults.
The Xiong'an New Area is located in the northern part of the North China Plain. Based on seismic reflection profiles and drilling studies, previous studies suggest that some pre-existing faults in this region were active into the early Quaternary but have been inactive since the Late Pleistocene. Relevant research lacked evidence from high-precision composite drilling profile investigations, making the conclusion about inactivity since the Late Pleistocene questionable. The crust-mantle structure in this area is unique, the mantle is uplifted and there is deep fluid convection along pre-existing faults, which is similar to typical intraplate seismic zones in the world, such as the New Madrid area in the United States. The epicenter of the M5¾ earthquake in 1679 was located in the study area. The determination of the latest active age of the fault is of great significance for the seismic hazard assessment of Xiong'an New Area and further research is needed. In this paper, based on shallow seismic exploration, we analyze the burial depth of the upbreakpoints of the Xushui South Fault and the Niudong Fault in the Xiong'an New Area using a composite drilling profile method, and then determine fault activity using Quaternary dating methods.
The targeted shallow reflection seismic explorationwith survey lines laid across the Xushui South Fault and the Niudong Fault has confirmed that the upper breakpoints of the middle section of the Xushui South Fault and the eastern branch of the middle section of the Niudong Fault are both at a depth of about 80 meters or less. This result may indicate the Xushui South Fault and the Niudong Fault were active during the Late Pleistocene. Perpendicular to the projection traces of the upper breakpoints of these two faults, two composite drilling profiles were arranged with boreholes on both sides of the shallowest identified upper breakpoints. They are named as the Rongcheng drilling profile and Xiongxian drilling profile, respectively. The drilling profiles consist of 5 and 4 drill holes, respectively, and the final hole depth is approximately 150 meters for both. The average hole separations were 23.3m and 30.4m respectively.
Based on material composition, particle size, color and consolidation degree, etc., we divided and recorded 104 and 112 units respectively for the two rows of drilling cores at the drilling site. After a comprehensive analysis, the detailed units mentioned above are reclassified and combined into 8 and 9 stratigraphic units, according to sedimentary cycles, sedimentary facies and other characteristics, and in combination with the dating results. These units cover the Holocene to the low Pleistocene series. The systematic throws of the top and bottom boundaries of the stratigraphic units and the fault zone structures preserved in the core led to the recognition of two normal faults in both the Rongcheng and Xiongxian drilling profiles. The faults in the Rongcheng profile have an up-breakpoint buried approximately 24m deep and the vertical offset of the base of the Upper Pleistocene is 15.15m. For the Xiongxian drilling line, the buried depth of the up-breakpoint of the faults is about 42m, with a vertical offset at the base of the Upper Pleistocene of 9.1m. The dating results of the samples collected near the up-breakpoints suggest that the middle segment of the Xushui South Fault and the eastern branch of the Niudong Fault were still active around approximately 20,000 years and 36,000 years ago, respectively, indicating they are Late Pleistocene faults.
Since the Paleogene, the Xushui South Fault and the Niudong Fault have been active as bounding normal faults for the Rongcheng Uplift and the Niutuo Town Uplift, with their lower endpoints reaching depths of approximately 20 kilometers. The lithosphere beneath these faults exhibits a cold crust and a warm mantle, with a slight bulge in the upper mantle. The Xushui South Fault and the Niudong Fault serve as conduits for the ascent of deep fluids and heat. The geothermal gradient in the uplifted areas is notably higher than in the surrounding subsiding basins. Our work indicates that these faults remained active in a normal faulting mode at the end of the Late Pleistocene. Combined with previous shallow seismic exploration, it’s suggested that the Xushui South Fault and the Niudong Fault were only active in their central segments after the Late Pleistocene.
Although the activity of these faults has diminished since the Late Quaternary, their deep-seated environment is similar to that of the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the United States, where a soft, warm upper mantle contacts a cooler, harder crust, and uneven crustal density leads to stress accumulation preferentially along pre-existing faults. Additionally, these faults act as pathways for deep fluids, which can trigger strong earthquakes.
The continued activity of the Xushui South Fault and the Niudong Fault at the end of the Late Pleistocene is related to their deep-seated environment. Some historical strong earthquakes in the North China Plain may have been triggered by reactivation of pre-existing faults with similar characteristics.
Since the Middle to Late Miocene, the tectonic regime of eastern North China has undergone a significant transition from extensional deformation to a shear-dominated system under a nearly E-W compressional stress field. This shift is attributed to the combined influence of the eastward extrusion of the Tibetan plateau and the retreat of the West Pacific Plate. The Tanlu fault zone, a major active strike-slip structure in eastern China, serves as the tectonic boundary between the Luxi and Ludong blocks. Within the Luxi Uplift, located in the east part of the North China Craton, a prominent basin-and-range system has developed, controlled by a series of NW-trending faults. Late Quaternary activity along these faults, including the Cangni Fault, Xintai-Mengyin Fault, Tongyedian-Sunzu Fault, Zhangdian-Renhe Fault, Yidu Fault, and Shuangshan-Lijiazhuang Fault, demonstrates a parallel, roughly equidistant arrangement, with a convergent pattern toward the Tanlu fault zone.
The Shangwujing Fault is a crucial NE-trending dextral strike-slip fault, and the Shuangshan-Lijiazhuang Fault is a NW-trending sinistral strike-slip fault. Spatially, these two faults form an X-shaped conjugate structure, which governs the formation and evolution of the Linqu Basin. The shallow surface expression of the Shangwujing Fault can be segmented into northern, central-northern, central-southern, and southern sections, demarcated by Tongyugou Village, Dongliushui Village, and Yiyuan Beibudong Village. While prior studies identified Late Pleistocene activity in the central-northern segment, evidence for fault motion between Jiujie Village and Dongliushui Village remained insufficient.
The 2023 Jishishan MS6.2 earthquake struck within the Linxia Basin along the eastern front of the Jishishan Mountains. This region is characterized by the Jishishan Fault thrusting over the Linxia Basin. However, the dip direction of the seismogenic fault remains debated, with arguments for both west- and east-dipping geometries. Faults near the epicenter include the East Margin Fault of the Jishishan Mountains(EJSF); in addition, the South Margin Fault(SLJF) and North Margin Fault(NLJF) of the Lajishan Mountains may extend southward toward the epicentral area. Active anticlines are also present. Consequently, determining whether the earthquake originated on a single fault(and which one)or involved rupture of multiple faults is an urgent and critical question. To address this, we investigated faults, mountain-basin geological sections, and earthquake-induced fissures near the epicenter. Integrating these observations with a more complete relocated earthquake catalog and five shallow-seismic profiles, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the seismogenic fault and rupture mechanism of the 2023 Jishishan MS6.2 earthquake. The results are as follows.First, the faults near the epicenter include the EJSF, SLJF, and NLJF. The EJSF, situated along the eastern margin of the Jishishan Mountains, comprises multiple west-dipping reverse faults, with its most recent activity in the late Pleistocene to Holocene. The SLJF is an east-dipping reverse fault primarily north of the Yellow River and shows no discernible activity since the late Quaternary. The NLJF is a west-dipping reverse fault mainly developed north of the Yellow River; south of the river it is concealed beneath younger deposits. Its latest activity occurred primarily in the late Pleistocene.Second, the Jishishan-Linxia Basin section shows early Paleozoic magmatic rocks thrusting over the Linxia Group. The Linxia Group dips overall SW at 10°~20°, locally up to 29°. Near the epicenter, an asymmetric anticline deforms the Linxia Group, with a steeper eastern limb-indicative of EJSF propagation into the basin. Overlying early-Middle Pleistocene deposits display minor folding, but deformation amplitudes are markedly weaker than within the Linxia Group.Third, the meizoseismal zone exhibits diverse earthquake-induced fissures, including gravity, tectonic, and landslide-related fissures. Most tectonic fissures are narrow(<1cm), with maximum widths of ~5cm. They are concentrated at NWW(21%), NNW(30%), and NE(16.5%) within the EJSF's left-stepping zone, with predominant orientations matching the fault strikes. Over 50% of fissures exploit pre-existing bedrock weaknesses(faults, bedding, joints), while most others follow artificial discontinuities(e.g., road-embankment joints). Their preferential development along weak zones indicates these features result from ground shaking rather than primary fault rupture, further evidenced by mixed sinistral/dextral offsets lacking uniform sense.By integrating fault mapping, mountain-basin sections, and shallow-seismic profiles, we infer that both the SLJF and NLJF terminate abruptly south of the Yellow River and do not extend to the epicentral area. Only the EJSF and its associated thrust system-including blind faults and folds within the Linxia Basin-are developed near the epicenter. Analysis of relocated aftershocks from the Gansu digital seismic network, early-warning stations, and temporary arrays indicates the Jishishan earthquake likely nucleated on a blind thrust or fold branching from the EJSF. The >10km hypocentral depth greater than 10km further argues against an east-dipping back-thrust as the seismogenic source. Fault geometry and slip-rate results suggest that left-lateral slip along the West Qinling Fault transfers strain via vertical uplift along the EJSF and western Jishishan margin faults, together with crustal shortening in basins flanking the Jishishan Mountains. This strain partitioning constitutes the primary driving mechanism for the 2023 MS6.2 event.
Accurate characterization of shallow fine-scale geometric structures in active faults is critically important for earthquake disaster prevention, mitigation efforts, and advancing our understanding of seismic mechanisms. Integrated approaches combining artificial seismic exploration with three-dimensional structural modeling provide powerful capabilities for revealing detailed spatial architectural characteristics of buried fault systems. This study investigates the Tangdong buried active fault along the seismically significant southeastern margin of the Taihang Mountains, employing advanced geophysical methods to elucidate its complex geometric configuration and kinematic behavior.High-resolution imaging was achieved through a targeted small-spacing shallow reflection seismic exploration survey. A comprehensive array of 10 survey lines spanning a cumulative length of 28km yielded high-quality seismic reflection datasets. Advanced data processing techniques, including noise attenuation and velocity analysis, were applied to generate optimal high-resolution seismic profiles. These profiles enabled detailed structural interpretation of fault geometry and displacement characteristics. Subsequently, a geometrically constrained 3D fault model was constructed using the SKUA-GOCAD software platform, facilitating comprehensive spatial analysis of the fault system.Key findings reveal the Tangdong Fault as a high-angle normal fault with a dominant North-Northeast(NNE)strike direction. Significant along-strike segmentation characterizes its shallow architecture: the northern segment features a bifurcated structure comprising two distinct subsidiary faults(F3-1 and F3-2). In contrast, south of Weixian Town, these faults converge into a single strand(F3-2). Shallow dip angles exhibit considerable spatial variation, ranging from approximately 55° to 80°. Notably, the central segment between survey line L6(Panshitou Xincun) and line L7(north of Gangpo Village)displays a relatively gentler dip angle compared to adjacent segments, resulting in a distinctive saddle-shaped geometric configuration.Clear spatial partitioning of recent activity is observed between the subsidiary faults. South of survey line L6, contemporary deformation is predominantly localized on Fault F3-2, whereas north of L6, activity is exclusively manifested on F3-1. Integration of deeper-penetration petroleum seismic profiles confirms the fault's listric geometry, characterized by a steep upper section that progressively shallows with depth. The eastern(F3-1) and western(F3-2)branches converge and merge into a unified fault plane at approximately 1.8km depth. The 3D structural model further validates this geometric configuration near line L4 in Weixian Town and effectively visualizes the along-strike dip variations.These comprehensive findings provide fundamental insights into the three-dimensional geometry, segmentation patterns, and kinematic behavior of the Tangdong active fault. The integrated methodology significantly enhances our understanding of neotectonic deformation processes, offering critical scientific support for fault avoidance zoning, seismic hazard assessment, and earthquake risk mitigation strategies in this tectonically active region. This robust methodological framework establishes a transferable approach for characterizing concealed active fault systems in analogous tectonic settings globally.
In recent years, both governmental agencies and the public have placed increasing emphasis on the timeliness of post-earthquake trend analysis. However, during the early stages following an earthquake—particularly within the first few hours(the so-called “zero-hour” period)—the severe lack of observational data necessitates reliance on prior statistical information, such as the historical proportions of different earthquake sequence types. Accordingly, systematic statistical analyses of the proportional distribution of seismic sequence types and the characteristics of the largest aftershocks in different regions, based on historical earthquake sequence data, can provide essential reference data for the rapid identification of early sequence types and post-earthquake trends during this critical prediction bottleneck. Owing to the combined effects of regional tectonic settings, subsurface media, and stress fields, seismic activity in Yunnan is highly complex, resulting in diverse and complicated earthquake sequence types.
Using data from the China Earthquake Cases and monthly catalogs of the Yunnan Seismic Network, this study compiled 152 earthquake sequences with M≥5.0 that occurred between 1966 and 2023 in Yunnan and its adjacent areas(20°~29.5°N, 97°~106°E). Earthquake sequences were classified according to the magnitude difference ΔM=M0-M1 between the largest and second-largest events in each sequence into three types: multiple mainshock type(MMT, ΔM<0.6), mainshock-aftershock type(MAT, 0.6≤ΔM≤2.4), and isolated earthquake type(IET, ΔM>2.4). The influence of mainshock magnitude and rupture style on sequence type was analyzed. For forecasting the largest aftershock—a key issue in post-earthquake trend analysis—statistical investigations were conducted from three perspectives: the relationship between mainshock magnitude and the largest aftershock magnitude, the time interval between the mainshock and the largest aftershock, and the spatial distribution characteristics of magnitude differences. In addition, the spatial distribution patterns of earthquake sequence types in Yunnan and surrounding regions were examined, with particular focus on the distribution of MMT sequences and their relationship with regional tectonic structures.
The results indicate that: 1)Earthquake sequences in the study area are dominated by the MAT type, followed by MMT, with IET being the least common. Within the same sequence type, the proportions of MAT and MMT increase with increasing mainshock magnitude, whereas the proportion of IET decreases. Among different rupture styles, IET sequences are absent in normal-fault earthquakes, while thrust-fault earthquakes exhibit relatively high proportions of MMT, mainly distributed in northeastern Yunnan. 2)Linear regression analysis between mainshock magnitude and the magnitude of the largest aftershock shows the strongest correlation for MMT sequences, followed by MAT sequences, whereas IET sequences display the greatest scatter. The occurrence time of the largest aftershock is related to both sequence type and mainshock magnitude. The spatial distribution of D1 values shows significant regional differences, with the Honghe and Xiaojiang faults acting as boundaries: D1 values are highest east of the Xiaojiang Fault and the Zhaotong-Ludian Fault, and lowest west of the Red River Fault. 3)The spatial distribution of earthquake sequences in Yunnan and its adjacent regions exhibits statistically significant regional characteristics. Overall, MMT sequences are most prevalent in western Yunnan, followed by northeastern Yunnan, with relatively high proportions also observed in northwestern and southwestern Yunnan. Central Yunnan displays the simplest composition of sequence types, whereas western Yunnan shows the greatest complexity.
The distribution characteristics of MMT sequences can be broadly summarized as follows: 1)MMT commonly occurs in source environments characterized by complex seismogenic fault systems, such as conjugate or multiple intersecting fault sets, the interweaving of concealed structures, or the coupling of fault systems at different depths; 2)newly formed fault zones, exemplified by the Longling-Lancang fault zone, which developed after cutting through folded geological bodies of older faults and consists of numerous discontinuous, small-scale, parallel, clustered, or obliquely oriented secondary faults, are prone to generating MMT sequences with relatively large magnitudes; 3)upper-crustal low-velocity zones, as the spatial distribution of sequence types is closely related to the deep structural environment, with MAT sequences mainly occurring in high-velocity zones or transitional zones between high- and low-velocity regions, whereas MMT sequences are more frequently associated with low-velocity zones in the upper crust; 4)areas near the epicenters of historical large earthquakes, where in central and northwestern Yunnan MMT sequences tend to cluster around the epicentral regions of past major events; and 5) in recent years, earthquake sequences induced by human industrial activities, such as reservoir-induced seismicity and hydraulic fracturing, have exhibited increasingly complex sequence types. It should be noted that the first four characteristics are not mutually exclusive in the seismogenic processes of MMT sequences; in many cases, the source environments of MMT events may simultaneously involve multiple factors, particularly the first three tectonic features.
The Qilian Shan, Hexi Corridor, and Longzhong Basin, on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, form the leading edge of the plateau's outward advance into the mainland. They are young, critical components of the orogen, characterized by thrust faults, active folds, and strike-slip fault zones. The Mayaxueshan Fault(MYF), at the eastern end of the Qilian Shan, is a boundary thrust separating the northeastern Qilian margin from the Longzhong Basin. Constraining the late Quaternary activity and slip rate of the MYF is essential for elucidating regional deformation patterns and the mechanisms of Tibetan plateau uplift and outward growth, and it is also vital for seismic-hazard assessment.Through remote-sensing interpretation, geological and geomorphic mapping, unmanned-aircraft photogrammetry, and optically stimulated luminescence dating, this paper examines the geometry, geomorphic expression, late Quaternary activity, and vertical slip rate of the MYF, and discusses its seismic risk and tectonic significance. Results show that the MYF is a SW-arching thrust-fault zone ~152km long, dipping SW-S at 32°~71°. The fault cuts a series of NE-SN-trending gullies, offsets landforms of multiple tiers, and forms scarps at 0.9~14.8m height. Variations in geometry and late Quaternary activity divide the MYF into three sections: Mayaxueshan(west), Baoquanshan(middle), and Hunanshan(east). Activity decreases from west to east, with respective activity epochs of late Holocene, end of late Pleistocene, and late Middle Pleistocene. From scarp heights and ages of corresponding geomorphic surfaces at Mayinggou and Shangbacigou, the vertical slip rate of the Mayaxueshan segment since the Holocene is(0.50±0.02)mm/a. This segment is thus capable of generating strong earthquakes of M6.7-7.0 in the future.Comparative analysis suggests the western and middle-eastern sections of the MYF may belong to different fault systems. The Mayaxueshan segment shows a closer structural affinity with the Zhuanglanghe Fault; together they form arcuate thrust belts produced by regional compression. In contrast, the Baoquanshan segment appears to have evolved synergistically with the Baiyinbaiyangshugou Fault, constituting another arcuate belt in the north-central Longzhong Basin. As a whole, the MYF inherits an ancient arcuate architecture bulging toward the SW. Since the late Quaternary it has undergone progressive, west-to-east segmented reactivation, producing a mismatch between fracture geometry and the NE-oriented regional compressive stress and yielding along-strike differences in late Quaternary activity. On the northeastern Tibetan margin, NE-directed regional compression acting against stable blocks has generated foreland-propagating thrust-fold belts and curved extrusion structures, leading to crustal shortening and thickening and rapid mountain uplift. Consequently, the Tibetan plateau has risen and extended northeastward through the stepwise outward push of secondary blocks.
On January 23, 2024, an MS7.1 earthquake occurred in Wushi, Xinjiang, China. The Wushi MS7.1 earthquake was a thrust-dominated rupture with a strike-slip component, trending nearly NE, dipping NW, and exhibiting a relatively steep dip angle. Most of the MS≥4.0 aftershocks in the Wushi sequence also displayed thrust or thrust-dominated strike-slip rupture mechanisms. The aftershocks were primarily distributed along the northeastern segment of the Maidant-Shayilam Fault, generally extending in a NE-NEE direction, with a distribution scale of approximately 62km. In terms of the aftershock activity, the MS5.8 strongest aftershock on February 25 can be regarded as a significant temporal marker in the sequence's evolution: before February 25, aftershock activity was intense, with maximum seismic activity levels ranging from MS5.0 to MS6.0; afterward, aftershock activity noticeably weakened, maximum seismic activity levels dropping to the range of MS4.0 to MS5.0. Specifically, among the 50 MS≥4.0 aftershocks recorded until April 30, 2024, 45 occurred before February 25, including all 10 MS≥5.0 strong aftershocks. A similar pattern was observed in the temporal variation of focal mechanisms-before February 25, the focal mechanisms showed good consistency, whereas afterward, their consistency deteriorated. The stronger aftershocks with MS≥4.0 in Wushi sequence exhibited significant temporal clustering characteristics. In the early post-seismic stage before February 25, the vast majority of MS≥4.0 stronger aftershocks occurred during spring and neap tidal periods, displaying clear triggering features associated with the semimonthly tide. During this period, although aftershock activity gradually weakened and earthquake frequency decreased, the timing of larger aftershocks still indicated modulation by factors with a periodicity of “day” or its multiples, closely related to diurnal or semidiurnal tidal triggering.Focusing on the tidal triggering phenomenon of larger aftershocks in the Wushi sequence, this study calculates the tidal normal stress, tidal shear stress, and tidal Coulomb failure stress changes(ΔCFS) on both nodal planes of the focal mechanism solutions for all MS≥4.0 earthquakes in the sequence before and after the events. Based on the results of these calculations, we analyze the tidal triggering characteristics of the occurrence times of larger earthquakes in the sequence. The study primarily focuses on two aspects: one aspect examines the statistical characteristics of tidal triggering, specifically the triggering patterns of larger aftershocks in relation to spring-neap tides and semidiurnal tides. Another aspect is the mechanical relationship between tidal triggering and fault motion, investigating which tidal stress component(under different tidal force conditions)plays a dominant role in triggering aftershock activity in the Wushi sequence. In our study, ΔCFS>0 serves as the fundamental prerequisite for possible tidal triggering of seismic activity and is a necessary condition for determining tidal influence. Building upon this criterion, we further explore whether the triggering of seismic rupture is primarily due to enhanced tensional effects(increased normal stress), enhanced shear effects(increased shear stress), or a combination of both. The analysis aims to clarify the dominant tidal stress mechanism driving aftershock activity in the Wushi earthquake sequence.The results indicate that the more vigorous aftershock activity of Wushi sequence during spring tide periods may be related to the progressive increase in tidal ΔCFS on the mainshock rupture plane(Nodal Plane I). In contrast, the fluctuations in stronger aftershocks during neap tide periods may be associated with the peak and subsequent decline of tidal ΔCFS on the auxiliary focal mechanism plane(nodal Ⅱ). From the perspective of tidal stress components, the fluctuations of MS≥4.0 stronger aftershocks during syzygy spring tides(new/full moons) are primarily driven by the combined effects of: maximum tidal normal stress(σn) and contemporaneously increasing tidal shear stress(τn) on nodal I. This suggests that the fracture planes of the triggered earthquakes are likely closer to nodal I of the mainshock's focal mechanism. Conversely, the stronger aftershock activity during quadrature neap tides(first/third quarter moons)is mainly influenced by the combined effects of the maximum tidal shear stress(τn) and contemporaneously increasing tidal normal stress(σn) on nodal Ⅱ, implying that the rupture planes of these triggered earthquakes may be closer to nodal II of the mainshock's focal mechanism.The findings further reveal that 70% of MS≥4.0 earthquakes in the Wushi sequence exhibit significant semi-diurnal tidal triggering characteristics, with 64% of these events showing tidal triggering effects on both nodal planes of their focal mechanisms. This phenomenon may be attributed to the unique geometric relationship between the nodal planes of the thrust-type ruptures in the Wushi MS7.1 mainshock and most MS≥4.0 aftershocks, where the two nodal planes share similar or nearly identical strikes but dip in opposite directions. It should be noted that tidal triggering signals on both nodal planes do not imply simultaneous rupture on both planes. Further analysis indicates that the semi-diurnal tidal shear stress component, superimposed along the fault slip direction, serves as the dominant tidal triggering factor for MS≥4.0 earthquakes in the Wushi sequence, with 60% of the triggered events being influenced by tidal shear stress(τn). Regarding the temporal relationship between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress, 94% of the semi-diurnally triggered MS≥4.0 earthquakes occurred either during the peak tidal stress phase(within ±1.5 hours of the peak stress)or the adjacent stage following the peak stress.It is noteworthy that the relatively relaxed and fractured structural and medium environment of the aftershock zone, combined with the critically high stress state immediately after the mainshock, along with the cumulative “slip-promoting” effect resulting from the co-directional superposition of tidal stresses and tectonic stresses, may be the possible reasons for the pronounced tidal triggering characteristics displayed by the early strong aftershocks in the Wushi earthquake sequence.
Based on 1, 701 precisely relocated seismic events from the 2022 Luding MS6.8 earthquake sequence, this study systematically delineates the three-dimensional geometric characteristics of the seismogenic faults using a fuzzy clustering-based fault plane determination method, providing critical insights into the complex seismotectonic processes operating along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. The results identify three prominent aftershock clusters in the main rupture area, each exhibiting distinct spatial distributions and tectonic implications. With respect to the Xianshuihe fault zone and their relative positions, Cluster A displays a slightly elliptical distribution that deviates markedly from the mapped fault trace, making it difficult to fit a single fault plane and suggesting strong control by complex subsurface structures. In contrast, Clusters B and C show well-defined elliptical distributions with pronounced long-axis orientations and high degrees of flattening, and both exhibit excellent agreement with the fitted fault planes, indicating relatively simple and coherent fault geometries consistent with regional tectonic patterns. The B and C faults, extending along the Xianshuihe fault zone, strike NNW-SSE with orientations of 159.9° and 157.2°, respectively, and both are characterized by near-vertical, high dip angles(Fault B: 88.1°; Fault C: 87.1°), consistent with the typical geometry of left-lateral strike-slip faults that dominate the region.
Notably, the area west of the main shock(Cluster A)exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity in focal mechanisms used for stress field inversion. Normal fault-type earthquakes account for 21.11% of the total dataset, which is unexpected in a tectonic setting primarily governed by strike-slip and thrust faulting. Clustering of focal mechanism nodal planes reveals a dominant fault plane striking 156.99°, closely aligned with the regional fault orientation despite the contrasting faulting style. Tectonic stress field inversion using a grid-search approach indicates that the main shock area is characterized by a composite stress regime, with near-horizontal compression in the NW-SE direction(P-axis azimuth 101.5°, plunge 0.9°) and vertical extension in the NNE-SSW direction(T-axis plunge 59.0°), consistent with the stress field imposed by the ongoing India-Eurasia collision. Projection of the stress field onto the fault planes shows that Fault B experiences relatively high shear stress(0.719) and compressional normal stress(-0.701), indicating conditions favorable for shear stress accumulation and potential future rupture. Fault C exhibits slightly higher relative shear stress(0.760) but weaker compressional normal stress(-0.625), suggesting spatial variations in fault strength and stress accumulation along the fault system. Both faults have slip angles smaller than 15°, indicating predominantly strike-slip motion with minor dip-slip components; the slip angles of Faults B and C are 13.0° and 14.7°, respectively. These results confirm left-lateral strike-slip as the dominant kinematic behavior, in strong agreement with GPS-derived slip rates of 9~12mm/a and historical strong-earthquake recurrence in the region.
In contrast, the stress field within Cluster A shows an anomalous pattern, characterized by near-vertical compression (P-axis plunge 84.6°, azimuth 210.3°) and near-horizontal extension (T-axis plunge 5.0°), representing an approximately 98° rotation relative to the background regional stress field. This indicates the operation of a fundamentally different local stress regime. We propose that the occurrence of normal fault-type earthquakes in Cluster A may be associated with gravitational potential energy release driven by the high topography of the Gongga Mountain region, producing shallow crustal extension superimposed on deep left-lateral strike-slip motion of the Xianshuihe Fault, thereby generating shallow normal-fault components related to gravitational collapse. Alternatively, or additionally, the presence of concealed secondary faults, highly brittle rock properties, and possible reservoir water infiltration may promote normal faulting through localized stress concentration and pore pressure variations. The relative contributions of these mechanisms, however, require further investigation using integrated geophysical observations and numerical simulations.
Overall, this study provides important constraints on fault activity and seismotectonic mechanisms along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, highlighting the complex interplay between regional tectonic stress fields and local geological structures. The identification of anomalous normal faulting west of the main rupture zone offers new perspectives on the lateral extrusion of the Bayan Har block and the role of gravitational collapse in high-relief regions, with implications for analogous tectonic environments worldwide. The integrated analysis of fault geometry, stress field inversion, and kinematic behavior contributes to improved seismic hazard assessment in this highly active region and provides a robust scientific basis for earthquake forecasting and risk mitigation.
The “sub-instability” earthquake prediction theory, combined with field-to-source and source-to-field techniques, offers a method for determining the location and timing of future earthquakes in key geological structures and active fault zones. Following the 2021 Maduo MS7.4 earthquake, seven more earthquakes with magnitudes ≥5 occurred along the eastern section of the Altyn Tagh fault zone and the Qilian Mountain seismic belt. According to active earthquake period statistics, the Qilian Mountains tectonic belt remains one of the most active seismic zones in mainland China. Among the moderate to strong earthquakes, the Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake in Qinghai had the most significant impact.The evolution from earthquake incubation to development is complex and multifaceted. The successful spatiotemporal prediction of the Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake exemplifies the effectiveness of integrating long-, medium-, short-, and imminent-term earthquake forecasting by Chinese seismologists. In late 2015, the China Earthquake Administration's M7 Task Force identified high-risk zones for major earthquakes(M≥7) in mainland China for the period 2016-2025, based on geological structures, seismological data, and geophysical changes. The central section of the Qilian Mountain seismic belt(specifically the Lenglong Ridge Fault)was designated as one of these high-risk zones, representing a long-term forecast. In 2021, the China Earthquake Administration identified the region from Jiayuguan in Gansu Province to Menyuan in Qinghai Province as a seismic hazard zone for the following year(with a forecast of around magnitude 6), reflecting a medium-term prediction. Additionally, in December 2021, the Qinghai Earthquake Agency issued a short-term forecast(one month prior to the event), warning of a potential magnitude 6-7 earthquake in the Qinghai region.An analysis of seismic activity tracking and anomalous spatiotemporal evolution leading up to the earthquake revealed several key seismological anomalies detected by the Gansu-Qinghai seismic network. Notably, the Qilian Mountain seismic belt experienced 1.95 years of quiescence for magnitude 5 earthquakes, which was subsequently interrupted by the MS5.5 Aksai earthquake on August 26, 2021. Additionally, the ML3.6 earthquake in Guyuan, Ningxia, on June 22, 2021, ended an 880-day period of quiescence in the central-eastern section of the Qilian Mountains. These disruptions increased concerns about the likelihood of intermediate-to strong-magnitude earthquakes in the region.Major geophysical anomalies, including 23 instances of localized deformation, electromagnetic, and subsurface fluid anomalies, were detected along the Qilian Mountain structural belt over the past four years. Analyzing the sequence of these anomalies revealed that: 1)5 background anomalies(lasting over 1 year)were distributed 300km from the epicenter; 2)2/3 of the 8 medium-term anomalies(lasting 0.3 months to 1 year)were within 200km of the epicenter; and 3)4/5 of the 10 short-term and imminent anomalies(less than 3 months)were within 180km of the epicenter. Since July 2021, medium-to short-term anomalies have become concentrated in the central-eastern section of the Qilian Mountain seismic belt, an area with one of the strongest monitoring capabilities and densest station distributions within the Gansu-Qinghai seismic network. As these anomalies emerged in clustered, synchronous patterns, seismic authorities promptly organized field verification and tracking.By integrating significant seismic events with geological structural features, authorities issued short-term forecasts prior to the earthquake, leading to effective disaster mitigation outcomes. This demonstrates that, under tectonic conditions in areas covered by seismic monitoring networks, the “sub-instability” theory can guide the research on anomalous changes in observational data, providing valuable support for earthquake prediction and reducing potential losses from future major earthquakes.
On March 25, 2023 at 13:53 local time, an earthquake of ML3.2 struck Weishan, Shandong Province. By April 4, three aftershocks with magnitudes greater than ML0 had occurred. On April 6, another ML3.3 event struck the same epicentral area, after which seismicity intensified, forming the Weishan earthquake swarm. The swarm effectively ended on June 30 following an ML0.7 earthquake.In this study, we used PhaseNet, a deep learning-based detector, to identify seismic events, and then applied the HypoDD algorithm for precise relocation, yielding a high-precision catalog for the Weishan swarm. In addition, using observation reports of ML≥0 earthquakes from January 2009 to March 2024 from the Shandong seismic network and neighbouring provinces, we performed double-difference tomography to invert the three-dimensional velocity structure of the source region, providing a detailed image of the subsurface architecture. The three-dimensional Poisson's ratio was then calculated from the inverted P-and S-wave velocity models using σ = V P 2 - 2 V S 2 2 ( V P 2 - V S 2 ) . Furthermore, employing the P-wave primitive-polarity picker POI(Probability of arrival time and polarity based on Order statistics and Information theory) together with the HASH method, we inverted focal-mechanism solutions for 10 earthquakes with ML≥2.0. Integrating the precise relocation, the 3-D velocity structure, and these focal mechanisms, we identified the seismogenic faults responsible for the swarm. Finally, we undertook a comprehensive analysis of the seismotectonic setting and seismic environment of the Weishan earthquake swarm.The results show that the Weishan swarm defines a clear NWW-trending linear zone ~3km long and<1km wide, with focal depths tightly clustered at 4~8km. Nodal parameters from the 10 ML≥2.0 focal mechanisms are consistent with the fault geometry revealed by precise relocations. Together, these indicate that the seismogenic fault is a previously unrecognized, high-angle, left-lateral strike-slip fault trending northwest-west(NWW) and dipping gently to the southwest(SW). The rupture surface is relatively small(~3km×2km), with a narrow damage zone and a comparatively planar fault plane. During the swarm, rupture initiated at ~8km depth and propagated upward with bilateral growth along strike, but did not reach the surface.Near the epicentral area, seismic velocities vary markedly. Prominent high-velocity and high-Poisson's-ratio anomalies occur northwest of the Sunshidian Fault, whereas low-velocity and low-Poisson's-ratio anomalies appear below ~15km southeast of the Fushan Fault. Velocity and Poisson's ratio also show clear layering across the region. The swarm itself is situated within a high-velocity anomaly for both P and S waves, and Poisson's ratio near the epicentre is relatively low, indicating that the source rocks are relatively hard.Based on the inferred fault properties and regional crustal structure from precise locations and focal mechanisms, we conclude that the Weishan swarm reflects brittle failure of hard layers in the source region-i.e., a concentrated release of stress in a localized volume. These findings refine our understanding of the mechanisms and seismogenic environment governing the Weishan earthquake swarm.
Owing to the ongoing collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates, the Tibetan block manifests as the most intensely deforming intracontinental tectonic unit globally. The interseismic phase, defined as the protracted stable period between characteristic earthquakes, features persistent relative movement of fault-bounded blocks driven by plate convergence or strike-slip motion. Locked segments at depth impede shallow slip, resulting in sustained accumulation of elastic strain within the crustal medium. This strain buildup manifests as long-term, stable tectonic deformation within the surface displacement field, known as interseismic deformation. As the critical phase for seismic energy accumulation, the Haiyuan fault zone(HYFZ)has historically experienced two major earthquakes: the 1920 Haiyuan and 1927 Gulang events. As a significant active block boundary and intense seismicity zone in the northeastern Tibetan margin, and one of China's most earthquake-prone regions, monitoring the HYFZ's interseismic deformation is particularly crucial.This study employs Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(SBAS-InSAR)technology with Sentinel-1A T135 and T62 track data(2018-2024) to monitor the HYFZ's interseismic deformation. The resulting deformation field covering the entire HYFZ was analyzed using cross-fault techniques, with emphasis on deformation at structural step-overs. Results indicate minimal deformation-rate differences(characteristic of interseismic locking) across the central-eastern Lenglongling, Jinqianghe, Maomaoshan, and western Laohushan segments. Notably, near the 2022 Menyuan earthquake hypocenter, the Lenglongling Fault exhibited a significant differential rate reaching 4mm/a. Shallow creep was observed along the eastern Laohushan segment, while the central Haiyuan strand showed an obvious maximum differential rate of 3.7mm/a with left-lateral strike-slip characteristics.Time-series analysis of a near western Lenglongling cross-fault profile revealed an accelerated trend on the southern block approximately two years before the 2022 Menyuan earthquake, with notably higher acceleration compared to the northern block. This suggests the southern block acted as the driving block. Subsequent slip-rate inversion for each HYFZ segment utilized the arctangent elastic dislocation model. Integrating InSAR and GPS data, the study transformed the deformation field into the Eurasian reference frame. Tectonic blocks adjacent to the HYFZ were defined as the Lanzhou, Qilian Shan, Ordos, and Alashan blocks. A block-based negative dislocation model inversion yielded locking depths and slip deficits along the entire HYFZ. Results indicate: maximum locking depth(16km) at the Lenglongling-Jinqianghe junction, minimum depth(<1km) in western Laohushan, and overall slip deficit rates decreasing eastward within the range of 1.9-5.2 mm/a.The comprehensive seismic hazard assessment suggests that the Lenglongling segment(deep locking, large slip deficit)faces significant hazard potential despite small earthquakes, requiring vigilance for large events. The Jinqianghe, Maomaoshan, and western Laohushan segments(constituting the “Tianzhu Seismic Gap”)exhibit deep locking, substantial slip deficits, and no major earthquakes in several centuries, indicating high risk. The eastern Laohushan and central Haiyuan segments(shallow locking, small deficits) are likely undergoing post-seismic adjustment, primarily experiencing small earthquakes with minimal potential for large events.
The complex stress field and distinct internal tectonic framework of North China contribute to the frequent occurrence of strong earthquakes, particularly around the Ordos Basin, the Bohai Bay region, and the North China Plain. The generation and spatial distribution of these earthquakes are closely associated with the geometric structure and dynamic behavior of active tectonic blocks. Therefore, understanding the motion and deformation of these blocks is crucial for assessing the timing, location, and intensity of seismic events in the region. Current research on the deformation characteristics and mechanisms behind strong earthquakes in North China mainly focuses on kinematic methods such as fault slip rate and GNSS velocity field inversion. However, the dynamic mechanism underlying these kinematic characteristics remain debated. Moreover, while many active blocks exist in North China, the interaction and dynamic effect among them have received limited attention.
This study integrates active block division data, GNSS velocity fields, and the spatiotemporal distribution of strong earthquakes to construct a three-dimensional finite element model covering North China and adjacent regions. Using this model, we simulate the regional stress and strain fields under varying block division schemes(primary, secondary, and tertiary levels)and assess the influence of tectonic activity along the Haiyuan, Liupanshan, and Longmenshan fault zones on block motion and deformation. The aim is to explore how the geometric configuration and hierarchical structure of active blocks affect the tectonic evolution of North China, thereby providing insight into the mechanisms of strong earthquakes in the region.
The main findings are as follows:
(1)As the number and resolution of active blocks increase, the motion and rotation rates of the Ordos Block, Taihang Mountain Sub-block, Jilu-Yuwan Sub-block, and Ludong-Huanghai block all show upward trends. The simulation results under the three-level block division scheme align best with current observational data. The contribution of secondary blocks to deformation is approximately three times that of tertiary blocks. This suggests that primary and secondary blocks, along with their boundaries, play dominant roles in the current tectonic pattern of North China, while tertiary structures contribute less significantly.
(2)The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates, along with the subduction of the Pacific and Philippine plates, exerts shear forces on North China from the south and north, resulting in a regional counterclockwise rotational pattern. The rotation rates of the Ordos, Taihang, Jilu-Yuwan, and Ludong-Huanghai blocks(referenced to the South China Block)are estimated at 2.3, 2.2, 2.0, and 3.4 nanoradians/year, respectively. These differences arise from two main factors: the heterogeneous distribution of the regional stress field and the compressive and extensional effects at block boundaries due to block interactions. The resulting uncoordinated block deformation leads to stress concentration and strain along fault zones, both within North China and at its margins, potentially triggering strong seismic events.
(3)Since the late Miocene, tectonic extrusion from the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau has influenced the southwestern Ordos region and the South China block through the left-lateral strike-slip motion of the Haiyuan fault, the thrusting of the Liupanshan fault zone, and deformation along the Longmenshan fault zone. The Haiyuan and Liupanshan faults directly enhance stress accumulation along the southwestern margin of the Ordos block, promoting deformation and movement in North China. Meanwhile, the Longmenshan thrusting enhances stress within the western South China block, facilitating its eastward motion. This movement establishes a left-lateral shear zone between the South China and Amur blocks, intensifying tectonic activity in the relatively weak North China region and indirectly driving block deformation across the area.
To carry out the more refined structural stress field and its formation mechanism, we mainly use the focal mechanism solution of small-moderate earthquakes since the observation in the Shanxi rift. The statistical results of focal mechanism solution classification show that the main types are strike-slip and normal faulting mechanism, and the percentage of strike-slip faulting, normal faulting and normal with strike-slip component is about 77%, which conforms to the transtensional deformation characteristics in the Shanxi rift. We adopt the damping stress inversion methodand invert stress fieldof the whole domain, 5 Basins, 0.5° grid of spatial distribution. We obtain the stress field parameters and stress shape factor(R value).
This study indicates that the Shanxi rift region is characterized by a NW-SE extensional stress field with localized strike-slip stress regimes, reflecting its heterogeneous nature The inversion result of 724 ML<3.0 focal mechanisms is normal faulting regime, and the results of 301 ML≥3.0 focal mechanisms is strike-slip faulting regime. Although there are slight differences in the results of subseismic magnitude categories, the azimuth and plunge angle of σ3 are mostly similar, which can still reflect the stable NW-SE tensional stress environment. The results also indicate that the Shanxi rift exhibits heterogeneous stress field characteristics, with the northern and southern basins(Yuncheng Basin and Datong Basin) in a strike-slip faulting regime, while the Xinding, Taiyuan, and Linfen Basins are in a normal faulting regime. Generally, this reflects that the stress environment of the Shanxi rift is dominated by tensile forces, accompanied by a shear component.
The 0.5° grid of stress field results show that the azimuth angle of the most tension principal stress σ3 in the entire area of Shanxi rift is dominated by the NW-SE direction and the plunge of σ3 is nearly horizontal, which is generally perpendicular to the direction of the main control fault in Shanxi depression basins. While the azimuth angle of σ1 is roughly parallel to the direction of the main control fault, and the spatial change of the plungeangle is not uniform. The spatial distribution results of stress field generally reflect the stable and horizontal tension, and the local heterogeneous stress field is caused by the changes of the most compressive principalstress σ1 and the intermediate principal stress σ2. The spatial distribution of stress field results show that the value of R is mostly less than 0.5, which reflects that intermediate principal stress σ2 is compressive stress, according with the stress state of Shanxi rift that is dominated by tension accompanied of a shear component.
In addition, the GPS velocity profile results also show that there is a extension movement of about 0.5mm/a in Shanxi rift, and there is local strike-slipping movement. The main crustal deformation of Datong Basin is the NW-SE extension with the a rate of 0.5-1mm/a, including minimal shear or strike-slip component. The main crustal deformation of Taiyuan Basin exhibits the NW-SE extension with 0.3-0.7mm/a, showing weak shear or strike-slip component. The Yuncheng Basin demonstrates both extensional and strike-slip deformation, with an extensional rate of about 0.6mm/a and a dextral strike-sliping rate of about 0.7mm/a. From a relative quantitative perspective, GPS data and other measurement techniques have shown that the Shanxi rift exhibits both extensional and shear deformation characteristics. The Shanxi rift serves as the boundary of a secondary block within the North China block, and its formation and dynamic source are related to the remote action of Pacific plate subduction and Indo-Europe collision extrusion.
Earthquake prediction based on changes in the resistivity of rock and soil media is a systematic endeavor that integrates field observation, scientific research, and forecasting practice. Apparent resistivity observation, which is widely used in earthquake monitoring and prediction in China, employs the direct-current method to continuously measure temporal changes in resistivity within a fixed subsurface investigation volume. Analytical calculations and numerical analyses of apparent resistivity observations conducted at the surface and underground have been developed by computing the potential distribution of the DC steady-current field. During the establishment of observation stations, electrical sounding should be carried out to invert the electrical structure of subsurface formations, and analytical calculations should be performed to determine the theoretical range of observational values, thereby verifying the correctness of the actual observation array configuration. Both analytical computation and numerical analysis can also be used to investigate the influence of resistivity variations in different parts of the medium on the observations. These methods provide reasonable explanations for three types of annual variation and for the characteristics of diurnal variation in apparent resistivity observations. In anomaly verification, they also enable quantitative evaluation of the interference amplitudes caused by leakage currents and electrically anomalous bodies. In the vertical direction, the one-dimensional sensitivity coefficient distribution reveals the extent to which resistivity changes at different depths affect the observations. The more detailed three-dimensional sensitivity coefficient distribution further reveals the differences in the effects of resistivity changes in different regions of the monitoring area on the observations. Therefore, the sensitivity coefficient distribution characterizes the local features of apparent resistivity observations and allows the influence of resistivity changes in different regions on the observations to be rapidly determined qualitatively. Petrophysical experiments and theoretical resistivity models have revealed the relationship between anisotropic resistivity decreases in water-bearing rock-soil media and the directional propagation of microcracks during compressive stress loading. In shallow subsurface layers, microcrack systems are predominantly aligned with the direction of the maximum horizontal principal compressive stress. During stress loading, the apparent resistivity measured in the direction perpendicular to the maximum principal compressive stress shows the largest variation amplitude, whereas that measured in the parallel direction shows the smallest variation, and that in an oblique direction exhibits an intermediate response. Through analysis of geoelectrical resistivity anisotropy, the orientation of the regional horizontal stress field can be inferred. The relative deformation accumulation around the epicenter before earthquakes has been analyzed using a virtual fault dislocation model. By using regional deformation as an intermediate bridge, a preliminary link has been established between anomalous changes at observation stations and the late-stage seismogenic process of distant earthquakes, and the expected patterns of apparent resistivity anomalies related to seismogenic processes have thus been obtained.
When observation stations are located within compressional enhancement zones during the seismogenic process, apparent resistivity exhibits anomalous decreases, whereas stations located in dilatational domains show anomalous increases. Transitional zones between compression and dilatation typically display weak or negligible anomalous variations. Based on earthquake case studies, persistent apparent resistivity anomalies lasting from several months to approximately two years serve as magnitude indicators for earthquake prediction, providing important constraints on potential epicentral locations and earthquake magnitudes. By contrast, short-impending anomalies characterized by accelerated variations or high-frequency perturbations act as temporal indicators and provide predictive information on earthquake timing. In operational earthquake forecasting, the spatial location and magnitude should first be preliminarily estimated using magnitude indicators, followed by short-term time prediction through continuous monitoring of temporal indicators within the pre-identified risk zone. On this basis, medium- and short-term earthquake predictions have been carried out from the perspective of interpreting field anomalies in terms of their seismic source processes. In recent years, the 2022 MS6.8 Luding, 2023 MS6.2 Jishishan, and 2024 MS7.1 Wushi earthquakes were successfully predicted using the apparent resistivity method. However, the relevant research is scattered across domestic and international literature spanning more than 60 years. This paper therefore reviews and summarizes the main theoretical foundations of earthquake prediction based on apparent resistivity observations, so as to facilitate their understanding and application in geoelectrical earthquake prediction practice.
The Yilan-Yitong fault zone(YYFZ)is the western branch of the two major branches in the northeastern segment of the Tanlu fault zone(TLFZ). Influenced by the subduction of the western Pacific Plate, the northern section of this fault(the Tangyuan-Luobei section and the Fangzheng-Tangyuan section)is seismically active. In particular, the Tangyuan-Luobei section experiences frequent moderate and small earthquakes, while the Fangzheng-Tangyuan section has a background of strong earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above. A scientific understanding of the seismic mechanisms in this area is of significant reference value for analyzing the seismic hazards of the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong Fault.
This study determins the source mechanism solutions, calculates the regional GPS strain field, extracts point deformation anomalies, and computes the relative movement speed changes of the blocks on both sides of the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault. It also considers the effects of M7 and above strong earthquakes from the Japan Trench on positive loading(superposition) of co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress and the post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation effect, providing a comprehensive analysis of the strain field status and seismic mechanisms in the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault.
The results indicate that:
(1)The strain field characteristics of the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault are characterized by NE-directed compression and NW-directed extension. The direction of the regional strain field is consistent with that of the background stress field, indicating that the currently observable strain field is controlled by the background stress field.
(2)The relative movement speed on both sides of the Yilan-Yitong fault in the Tangyuan-Luobei section has increased, and the corresponding seismic activity has intensified, indicating that the earthquake activity in this area is closely related to fault movement.
(3)The long-term trend of the water pipe tilt instrument, the gravity tidal factor, and the vertical oscillation tidal factor are roughly synchronous with the abnormal time period of relative block movement, suggesting that the elastic properties of the underground medium change due to tectonic movements, essentially reflecting changes in the internal stress field of the medium. The regional point deformation, gravity tidal factor, and abnormal changes in the strain field are correlated with seismic activity.
(4)The time series of the maximum shear strain parameter shows a continuous increase in the maximum shear strain in the region, indicating strong shearing effects in this area. Similar to the time series of the volumetric strain parameter, the amplitude of the maximum shear strain parameter during this active earthquake period significantly exceeded the limit. The over-limit of volumetric strain and maximum shear strain parameters may be anomalous phenomena related to seismic activity.
(5)Due to the western Pacific plate subduction, differential motion occurs between the Sanjiang Basin and the Xiaoxing’anling Uplift flanking the Tangyuan-Luobei section. While the strong tectonic activity of the main fault facilitates energy release, making it less prone to large earthquakes, the NW-striking secondary faults perpendicular to it are more fragmented. These secondary faults are prone to generate slip under shear stress, producing strike-slip type shallow moderate and small earthquakes. This may explain the frequent moderate and small earthquakes in the Tangyuan-Luobei section. The seismogenic process is accompanied by changes in the physical properties of the medium, reflecting alterations in the crustal stress field, as evidenced by significant annual and trend changes in point deformation and anomalies in the M2 wave tidal factor.
(6)The results of the co-seismic static Coulomb failure stress indicate that the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault is located in a region of positive Coulomb triggering stress from the subduction-type strong earthquakes offshore Honshu, Japan. The Tonghe section is the main area affected by co-seismic Coulomb failure stress, and strong earthquakes facilitate seismic events on the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault.
Although the impact of single strong earthquakes from the Japan trench is limited, considering the high frequency of M7 and above earthquakes and a recurrence period of approximately one year, the long-term cumulative effects over thousands of years cannot be ignored. The strong seismic activity on the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault primarily originates from local tectonic stress field actions, as well as the frequent subduction-type strong earthquakes from the offshore Honshu region of Japan that trigger positive loading (superposition) and post-seismic Coulomb stress effects on the northern section of the Yilan-Yitong fault zone. Due to relatively few deep earthquakes in the Fangzheng-Tangyuan section, stress is not sufficiently released, leading to the formation of stress accumulation areas that trigger strong earthquakes; this may be one of the important factors for strong earthquakes occurring in the Fangzheng-Tangyuan section.
The southern boundary fault zone of the Yuguang Basin, located in the Shanxi Graben System, is jointly constituted by two fault segments: the piedmont normal fault distributed in the bedrock area and the foothill normal fault developed in the sedimentary area. However, academic debates persist over two critical issues: whether these faults were active synchronously during geological evolution, and whether both function as seismogenic faults that dominate earthquake occurrence in this region. A series of key scientific questions remain to be addressed urgently: What are the specific activity characteristics of these two faults?Is the seismic hazard of the Yuguang Basin controlled by a single fault, either the piedmont or the foothill one, or do the combined effects of both faults govern it? To resolve these controversies and clarify the aforementioned questions, this study selects the Tangshankou segment of the southern Yuguang Basin fault as the research target. By integrating multiple technical approaches including small unmanned aerial vehicle(s-UAV) aerial survey, detailed geological profile interpretation, and precise Quaternary dating methods, we conduct a systematic investigation into the activity epoch, displacement amplitude, and slip rate of both the foothill normal fault and the piedmont normal fault. The research results reveal that the foothill normal fault experienced two distinct paleoseismic events: the first event occurred after 32.9-31.9kaBP, with its specific displacement amplitude remaining undetermined; the second event took place during the period of (23.4±2.1)-(20.8±1.8)kaBP, accompanied by a coseismic dip-slip displacement of 0.4-0.5m, and the Holocene extensional slip rate of this fault is calculated to be 0.8mm/a. In contrast, the piedmont normal fault has accumulated approximately 7m of vertical displacement since 10.1-8.2kaBP, corresponding to a Holocene extensional slip rate of 0.4-0.5mm/a. This finding significantly revises the previous academic view that the piedmont normal fault in this segment had essentially ceased tectonic activity since the Late Quaternary. Further analysis demonstrates that both the piedmont normal fault in the bedrock area and the foothill normal fault in the sedimentary area within the Tangshankou segment are Holocene active faults, and both have generated surface-rupturing earthquakes in history. These two faults jointly undertake the regional extensional deformation and play a crucial role in the strain partitioning process within the basin boundary zone. Therefore, when conducting regional extensional deformation calculations in the boundary zone of faulted basins, it is essential to carry out a comparative analysis and careful consideration of the two fault segments in both bedrock and sedimentary areas. Only in this way can we scientifically construct a regional extensional deformation model and accurately grasp the kinematic characteristics and dynamic mechanisms of the boundary zone of faulted basins, thereby providing a reliable geological basis for seismic hazard assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation work in this region.
The Jiaocheng fault zone is the largest seismogenic fault and the principal boundary-controlling structure within the Taiyuan Basin, located in the central segment of the Shanxi Graben System. The fault zone extends for approximately 125km, trends overall in a NE direction, and dips to the SE with dip angles ranging from 40° to 80°. It is characterized as an active dip-slip normal fault with a right-lateral strike-slip component. The activity of the Jiaocheng fault zone has played a decisive role in the formation and evolution of the Taiyuan Basin, as well as in strain accumulation and the occurrence of major earthquakes in the region. In recent years, ground fissures have continued to develop along the fault zone, with the Qingxu-Wenshui segment being the most active. This segment has formed a surface rupture zone up to 48km in length and 80-120m in width. Extensive ground cracking has damaged roads, bridges, and buildings, resulting in severe social impacts and economic losses. It has become one of the longest, most destructive, and socially influential ground fissure zones identified in China.
To further clarify the vertical slip rates of the Jiaocheng fault zone since the late Pleistocene and to investigate its evolutionary characteristics, a systematic and comprehensive study was carried out. This study integrated tectonic geomorphological analysis, trench excavation, across-fault leveling, GPS observations, and InSAR measurements. Analyses of vertical slip rates derived from multiple datasets indicate that the Jiaocheng fault zone has experienced pronounced spatial segmentation and significant spatiotemporal variations in vertical slip since the Late Pleistocene. Specifically: 1) since the Late Pleistocene, the vertical slip rates are estimated to be 0.82-0.90mm/a for the Shanglan segment, 0.98-1.17mm/a for the Jinci segment, 0.51-1.66mm/a for the Qingxu-Wenshui segment, and approximately 0.43mm/a for the Fenyang segment; 2) since the Holocene, the overall average vertical slip rate of the fault zone has decreased, with rates reduced to 0.63-1.04mm/a for the Shanglan segment, 0.23-0.45mm/a for the Jinci segment, 0.44-1.54mm/a for the Qingxu-Wenshui segment, and nearly zero for the Fenyang segment; 3)although fault activity shows a general trend of northward propagation, the Qingxu-Wenshui segment has consistently remained the most active portion of the fault zone in terms of vertical slip. This observation is consistent with the widespread development of ground fissures and recent field evidence in the area.
Modern geodetic data further indicate that the Jiaocheng fault zone remains active at present, with significant vertical slip still occurring, particularly along the Qingxu-Wenshui segment. In addition, fault activity exhibits clear interactions with the external environment. Field investigations show that ground fissures predominantly develop along the fault zone, with their planar distribution approximately parallel to the fault trace, directly reflecting the influence of fault activity on surface deformation. Monitoring data reveal similar temporal trends between cross-fault leveling measurements and groundwater level variations, indicating a modulatory effect of groundwater dynamics on fault activity. Although coal mining along the fault zone does not directly trigger fault motion, it may indirectly enhance fault activity through groundwater depletion.
This study provides quantitative constraints on the vertical slip rates of the Jiaocheng fault zone since the late Pleistocene and further clarifies the spatial segmentation and temporal evolution of its vertical slip behavior. The results improve the understanding of the long-term spatiotemporal characteristics of fault motion and provide a scientific basis for evaluating the potential for strong earthquakes along the Jiaocheng fault zone, assessing seismic hazards in the Taiyuan Basin and surrounding areas, and deepening insight into regional tectonic processes and the mechanisms of ground-fissure-related disasters.
Human-induced seismicity associated with large-scale industrial resource extraction has attracted increasing public and scientific attention because of its potential to damage infrastructure. Previous studies have mainly focused on the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity, surface deformation monitoring, and geomechanical stress perturbations induced by fluid injection. However, the integrated effects of complex geological settings, localized fault structures, and lithological heterogeneity on induced seismic responses remain insufficiently constrained.
In this study, we investigated recent seismic swarms associated with water injection and subsequent brine extraction at the Huai'an anhydrous glauberite salt mine in the Subei Depression, eastern China. Solution mining in such seismically sensitive settings involves the continuous circulation of fluids that dissolve target evaporite formations, thereby perturbing the local stress-strain equilibrium. To characterize the geological framework of the mining area, we integrated lithological and structural stratigraphic data from the Zhaoji sub-depression with regional seismic velocity profiles and electrical resistivity structures to construct a detailed three-dimensional geological model. High-resolution DEM data, drilling records, and three-dimensional electrical and velocity structures were used to extract key geophysical parameters, including resistivity and S-wave velocity, and to characterize the continuous distribution of strata. These data were then processed using discrete smooth interpolation in GOCAD. Drilling data provided vertical stratigraphic constraints, whereas microseismicity and three-dimensional electrical structures constrained the lateral and deep extent of the model.
The resulting three-dimensional structural model clearly delineates the depression geometry of the mining area. Cross-sections show that Member 4 of the Funing Formation reaches its maximum thickness in the depression center and thins outward, defining a pronounced depression structure extending from the Quaternary strata to the pre-Cretaceous basement. Using a high-precision microseismic catalog relocated with the double-difference method since 2019, we further analyzed the spatial distribution of earthquake swarms across different sedimentary units and delineated the three-dimensional extent of water inflow within the salt mining area. We then examined the distinct causal mechanisms of these swarms and their relationship with dynamic groundwater migration.
The relocated earthquake catalog reveals two distinct seismic clusters with different seismogenic mechanisms. Cluster 1 is located within the Funing Formation beneath the mining zone and consists of diffusely distributed, low-magnitude microseismic events concentrated in Member 4, where the target salt and anhydrous glauberite layers are extensively developed. These localized events likely reflect distributed, mechanically weak fracturing caused by local strain perturbations and immediate stress relaxation associated with repeated water injection and salt dissolution. In contrast, events within the underlying Members 1-3 of the Funing Formation have relatively larger magnitudes and are dominated by thrust-type focal mechanisms. This pattern indicates localized stress concentration caused by downward fluid infiltration and partial dissolution of salt layers, with mudstone barriers locally trapping elevated pore pressure.
Cluster 2, located to the north near Gaojiayan Town within the Taizhou Formation, is associated with natural groundwater inflow. The microseismic events in this cluster are aligned with pre-existing secondary faults and localized tectonic fractures characterized by relatively weak mechanical cementation. This spatial correspondence indicates that fluid migration pathways and the mechanical properties of fault zones exert primary control on the propagation of induced seismicity.
Overall, the systematically observed seismicity in the Huai'an region is dominated by small-to moderate-magnitude events confined to specific rheological stratigraphic units or localized fracture zones, suggesting a relatively low likelihood of future large-scale destructive earthquakes. Nevertheless, our results demonstrate that transient pore-pressure variations, fluid migration, lithological heterogeneity, and localized reactivation of secondary faults jointly control the spatial distribution of induced seismicity in actively exploited salt mines. This study provides a physically informed framework for assessing seismic hazards related to industrial fluid injection in the complex Subei Depression and extends the application of three-dimensional geological modeling to the analysis and prediction of engineering-induced geological hazards.
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of mobile gravity observation data from the western Yunnan region, focusing on the gravity variations leading up to the Yangbi MS6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2021. The analysis utilizes the GLDAS global hydrological model to examine regional hydrological gravity changes based on load theory. Additionally, GNSS observations of long-term vertical displacement rates are used to assess gravity changes resulting from crustal deformation. By isolating gravity changes due to hydrological effects, crustal deformation, and other factors, the study explores potential deep-seated material migration processes in and around the epicentral area. After removing gravity changes attributed to terrestrial water loads and crustal deformation, gravity variations linked to deep structural activities were confirmed. The Bott density interface inversion method was then applied to evaluate deep material migration before the Yangbi earthquake.The main findings are as follows: 1)Mobile gravity observations show a steady increase in regional gravity changes since 2016, culminating in 2018 in a “four-quadrant” distribution pattern around the epicenter, with maximum positive and negative gravity differences exceeding 50μGal. This pattern extends across the entire western and southwestern Yunnan region, with a spatial range of 200~300km. After 2019, cumulative gravity changes slightly decreased, with only minor local variations remaining before the earthquake. Gravity change gradients align with block boundaries, and the earthquake occurred at the center of the gravity “four-quadrant” and within a region of high gradient. 2)Gravity changes calculated from a small number of permanent GNSS observation stations range from -13 to 1μGal, indicating significant magnitude and clear seasonal variations. When annual differential GNSS data are used, the gravity effect reduces to between -8 and 1μGal. However, the limited number of GNSS stations does not fully represent the conditions across the entire survey area. Data from 165 long-term mobile GNSS observation stations revealed that long-term gravity changes range from -0.68 to 0.37μGal, indicating minimal impact. Hydrological effects, including seasonal changes, contributed between -3.3 and 0.6μGal, suggesting a minor influence. The gravity effects from vertical deformation(based on mobile GNSS data) and hydrological influences were too small(no greater than 4μGal) to account for the observed gravity changes in the mobile gravity surveys. 3)Thus, after excluding gravity changes due to terrestrial water loads and crustal deformation, gravity variations attributable to deep structural activities were confirmed. The Bott density interface inversion method was then used to evaluate regional deep material migration prior to the Yangbi earthquake.The results show that when the reference depth for material migration is set at 10km and the density change is 1kg/m3, there is a strong correlation between the material migration-induced column height changes and the observed gravity changes. By analyzing the cumulative mass changes since 2016, it was found that material exchange within a 300km radius of the epicenter covered the earthquake zone. Specifically, from September 2016 to September 2018, the simulated net material inflow within this 300km radius reached 5.2×1012kg, with stress changes causing the epicentral area and surrounding regions to exhibit a “four-quadrant” pattern. From September 2016 until just before the earthquake, the simulated peak material inflow within the 300km radius centered on the epicenter reached 1.45×1013kg, leading to rock layer rupture and triggering the earthquake.
The Tan-Lu fault zone(TLFZ)is a major tectonic structure in eastern China, characterized by significant seismic activity and a complex geological setting. Understanding the spatial distribution of seismic activity and its correlation with crustal velocity structures is crucial for assessing seismic hazards and improving our knowledge of the underlying mechanisms. This study aims to provide a detailed analysis of the high-resolution crustal velocity structure and seismic activity in the middle and southern segments of the TLFZ, focusing on identifying the key factors controlling spatial variations in seismic activity. We collected Pg and Sg arrival time data from 2009 to 2021, covering a broad region from 115°E to 122°E and from 30°N to 38°N. A total of 16,525 earthquakes were selected based on strict criteria, including a minimum of 3 recording stations per event and a maximum focal depth of 20km, to ensure high-quality data from 332 fixed seismic stations. We employed a two-dimensional tomographic imaging method with a grid size of 0.25°×0.25° to generate high-resolution velocity models for the upper crust. The method incorporates station and event corrections to minimize travel-time residuals and uses a damped least-squares inversion technique with Laplacian smoothing to stabilize the solution. The resulting velocity models are validated through resolution tests and residual analysis, demonstrating the robustness of the imaging results. The tomographic results reveal distinct high- and low-velocity anomalies in the upper crust, which are closely correlated with regional geological structures. Based on the velocity structure and seismic activity, the TLFZ can be divided into four sub-segments: Bohai Bay-Wulian, Wulian-Tancheng, Tancheng-Jiashan, and Jiashan-Guangji. The Wulian-Tancheng segment exhibits significantly high-velocity anomalies and is associated with the highest seismic activity in the region. This segment is characterized by a small curvature and a near-vertical fault geometry, which facilitate the accumulation of elastic strain energy and promote seismic activity. Additionally, the high-velocity anomalies form a sharp velocity gradient with the underlying low-velocity zones, creating favorable conditions for strong earthquakes. The spatial distribution of seismic activity is closely related to the crustal velocity structure, with high-velocity anomalies favoring seismic events. The results suggest that seismic activity in the TLFZ is influenced by several factors, including the physical properties of the medium, external stress fields, fault geometry, and crustal fluid systems. This study demonstrates that the spatial differences in seismic activity within the middle and southern segments of the TLFZ are controlled by the interplay of crustal velocity structure, fault geometry, and crustal fluid systems. High-resolution tomographic imaging provides valuable insights into the mechanisms underlying seismic activity in this region. The findings highlight the importance of considering multiple factors when studying seismogenic mechanisms and suggest that future research should integrate various methods and data to better understand the complex interactions between crustal structures and seismic activity. Besides, it not only contributes to understanding the TLFZ's seismic behavior but also has implications for seismic hazard assessment and mitigation in the region. The detailed analysis of the velocity structure and its correlation with seismic activity provides a foundation for further exploration of the deep processes that influence seismicity and can enhance understanding of seismogenic mechanisms in complex tectonic settings.
Fluvial erosion of bedrock channels plays a crucial role in controlling denudation rates in orogenic belts. Dynamic adjustment of bedrock channels in response to perturbations such as tectonic and climatic events controls the mechanisms and pace of regional geomorphic evolution. Fluvial systems generally evolve toward a steady state, adjusting their channel geometry to maintain a stable erosion rate. However, variations in tectonic activity, channel substrate strength, and sediment cover can cause fluvial systems to deviate from this equilibrium state. In response to those disturbances, fluvial systems modify their stream power by altering their geometry. Thus, channel morphology is vital for revealing the processes of geomorphic evolution and their control mechanisms. Stream power incision model is the base for quantitative studies of how fluvial systems adapt to tectonic, climatic, and lithological changes. Channel slope and channel width are the two most commonly used parameters to determine the state of channel stream power. Channel slope influences the rate of stream power dissipation along the downstream direction, while river width dictates the distribution of stream power across the channel bed. A reduction in channel width can concentrate stream energy, thereby promoting downcutting. Previous studies that have used fluvial geomorphology to infer tectonic and climatic information have largely focused on changes of channel slope, often overlooking the critical role of channel width. And the controlling factors and geomorphic indications of channel width, another important parameter of the hydraulic system, have not been fully revealed. Bedrock channel width is a key parameter for revealing the tectonic-erosional interaction and the geomorphologic evolution process, and has gradually become a hot spot in geomorphologic research in recent years. This paper addresses this gap by exploring how variations in channel width in response to external perturbations contribute to geomorphological evolution. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of hydraulic geometry modelling, erosion dynamics theory and global case studies, focusing on the factors controlling the width of bedrock channels(bed erodibility, tectonic deformation, sediment effects, and climate change, etc.). The synthesis of existing studies reveals that: 1)Bed erodibility is the core intrinsic factor controlling channel width, and rock mass strength and joint density regulate channel morphology by influencing the erosion mechanism(abrasion/abrasion): channel in high erosion-resistant bedrock zones tend to have narrower width, and higher steepness; on the other hand, weak or fractured rock layers promote lateral erosion and the formation of wide, shallow river valleys. 2)Tectonic deformation drives channel morphology through changes in uplift rate: rivers in high uplift rate areas concentrate shear forces by contracting width, accelerating downcutting to balance uplift, while rivers in low uplift areas weaken erosive capacity by widening the channel. 3) The dual effect of sediment supply significantly influences the response to width: adequate sediment cover of the streambed inhibits downcutting but enhances lateral erosion, whereas low sediment supply concentrates the energy on basement erosion, creating narrower and deeper channels. 4)Extreme climatic events trigger short-term adjustments in channel width through drastic changes in flood flow and sediment pulse inputs, and in the long term influence morphological evolution through changes in erosion datum. Thus, the current study still has the problems of an unknown multi-factor coupling mechanism and insufficient universality of the quantitative model. In the future, we need to combine high-resolution remote sensing, numerical simulation and chronological data to deepen the application of the width parameter in the geomorphological evolution model, so as to provide a new perspective for the study of tectonic-climatic interactions in orogenic zones.
The Southern Maomaoshan Marginal Fault is a key structural constituent of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone, situated along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Historically, research efforts have been predominantly concentrated on the Maomaoshan Fault along the northern flank, while the Southern Maomaoshan Marginal Fault on the southern flank has received comparatively less attention. This study seeks to investigate this understudied fault segment from the Shibangou River to Nanniwan, with three core objectives: 1) to reveal its Late Quaternary activity characteristics, 2) to assess its seismic hazard potential, and 3) to offer novel perspectives on regional tectonic evolution. This study employed various methods, including high-precision topographic and geomorphic surveys, geomorphic surface dating, and trench excavation. Using high-precision airborne LiDAR technology, detailed 3D topographic data along the fault were obtained, and the heights of fault scarps were determined. Combined with optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)dating, the ages of geomorphic surfaces were measured. Additionally, trench excavations were conducted to reveal the near-surface structural characteristics of the fault, providing direct evidence of paleo-earthquake events. The results indicate that the Southern Maomaoshan Marginal Fault has been significantly active during the Late Quaternary from Shibangou to Nanniwan segment, with left-lateral strike-slip movement accompanied by north-to-south thrusting. Airborne LiDAR revealed two distinct clusters of vertical displacement along the fault, indicating that the fault has experienced at least two strong paleo-earthquake events during the Late Quaternary. Based on fault scarps, trench profiles, and OSL dating, the recent strong earthquake activity has been constrained to 5.11~6.28kaBP, with vertical slip rates of 0.42~0.75mm/a since the Late Pleistocene. Trench excavations revealed that the near-surface structure of the fault displays typical flower structures characteristic of strike-slip faults. The Southern Maomaoshan Marginal Fault is a Holocene active fault, which, together with the Maomaoshan Fault, accommodates tectonic deformation in the Maomaoshan region of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone. Its left-lateral strike-slip and thrust kinematics play an important role in shaping regional tectonic evolution. Given its proximity to several villages and the fact that its western segment constitutes a critical economic and transportation corridor, this fault underscores the urgency of seismic hazard assessment. Future studies ought to prioritize exploration of its slip rate and strong-motion earthquake recurrence patterns, integrating these results into regional hazard frameworks—a step that will enhance our comprehensive understanding of the northeastern Tibetan plateau’s tectonic evolution.
Gravity variations provide an important means for studying the processes of earthquake preparation and occurrence, as well as earthquake prediction. In recent years, gravity variations have achieved good applicationin determining the locations of a series of strong earthquakes, including the 2013 Lushan 7.0 earthquake, the 2017 Jiuzhaigou 7.0 earthquake, and the 2022 Menyuan 6.9 and Luding 6.8 earthquakes. However, the current analysis of gravity variation anomalies and the determination of strong earthquake locations is mainly based on manual interpretation, and face issues of low efficiency and reliance on experience. In this paper, automated identification methods of gravity anomaly featuresuch as quadrants, gradient zones, and zero lines are firstly studied. Then the method of focusing gravity variation anomaly features on active block boundary zones is studied to further identify potential strong earthquake locations. Finally, the method is validated using the example of the December 18, 2023 Jishishan MS6.2 earthquake.(1)By comprehensively utilizing methods such as machine learning image recognition, total horizontal gradient calculation, and grid data search, gravity variation anomaly features such as quadrants, gradient belts, and zero linesin gravity variation images can be quickly and comprehensively identified, which facilitates the comprehensive statistical analysis of gravity variation anomaly features. Based on the close correlation between seismic activity and the boundaries of active tectonic blocksin China mainland, a method of focusing anomaly featureson the block boundaries has been proposed in order to further delineate potential strong earthquake locations.(2)Before the Jishishan MS6.2 earthquake, gravity variation in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau shows a spatial distribution pattern of negative to positive from southwest to northeast. Along the southern segment of the Lajishan Fault through the epicenter of the Jishishan MS6.2 earthquake, the gravity variation showed distinct zero lines and high-gradient zone features. The maximum difference between the positive and negative centers was approximately 110μGal, with an anomaly range of 200km and a duration of 1-3 years. The gravity variations in terms of pattern, magnitudeand duration are consistent with the existing anomaly indicators for magnitude 6 earthquakes. Combined with information on surface deformation, tectonic background, and geophysics, it is inferred that the gravity observation reflects the change in the distribution of crust-mantle material caused by the NE-SW compression of the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the reverse thrust movement of the southern segment of the Lajishan fault zone.(3)By focusing gravity anomaly characteristics on active block boundaries, it is helpful to give more intuitive and precise results for strong earthquake location prediction. The focused results of the three types of gravity anomalies(quadrant, gradient belt, and zero line) in the block boundary zone all show high-value characteristic in the southeastern area of the Qilian Block. The comprehensive statistical results formed by the superposition of the three types of gravity variation anomalies further highlight that the southeastern area of the Qilian Block is the most obvious high-value anomaly zone, and the Jishishan MS6.2 earthquake is located on the edge of this high-value zone. Compared with traditional manual interpretation methods, the approach presented in this study is not only more intuitive and efficient, but also significantly reduces the size of the earthquake prediction area.(4)This research is a preliminary exploration of automated extraction methods of gravity variation anomalyfeatures and their application in strong earthquake location prediction combined with active tectonics. In subsequent studies, it is still necessary to refine the focused seismic fault zones, taking into account non-block boundary regions such as strong earthquake rupture gaps, locked fault segments identified by geodetic measurements, sparse small-to-medium earthquake activity zones, and segments with significant Coulomb stress enhancement from numerical simulations, etc. Additionally, a comprehensive statistical analysis of the correspondence between different anomaly features and their seismogenic probabilities should be conducted based on a large number of earthquake cases to assign more reasonable weight coefficients for different gravity variation anomaly features.
The Weihe Basin, located in the central segment of the North-South Seismic Belt, has experienced multiple historical strong earthquakes. Its thick sedimentary cover can produce pronounced site effects that may amplify seismic damage. At the same time, these sediments preserve key records of the basin’s structure and evolutionary history. However, a detailed shallow three-dimensional(3D)sedimentary model has been lacking for the western basin margin. In 2021, the Geophysical Exploration Center of the China Earthquake Administration deployed a dense seismic array of 288 three-component short-period EPS-2 seismometers across the western Weihe Basin, covering Fufeng, Meixian, and surrounding areas. The array had an average station spacing of ~1.5km and recorded continuously for 60 days. Using these data, we first applied a short-term average/long-term average(STA/LTA) algorithm to automatically identify and remove nonstationary noise. We then used Konno-Omachi smoothing to obtain stable horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio(HVSR)curves. The results show widespread multiple peaks across the study area. For each curve, we extracted the amplitude ratios and frequencies of the visible peaks. For the two most consistently observed peaks, f0 and f1, both amplitude ratios and resonant frequencies were interpolated by Kriging to produce two-dimensional(2D)distribution maps. In addition, adopting an estimated average shear-wave velocity, we converted peak frequencies to sediment thickness using the standard quarter-wavelength relation. By integrating existing borehole and geological constraints, we interpret f0 as the impedance contrast at the interface between the Neogene Youhu Formation and the Quaternary Sanmen Formation, whereas f1 corresponds to the interface between the Quaternary Sanmen Formation and the overlying Qinchuan Group. Based on these two interfaces, we constructed a layered shallow 3D sedimentary model for the region. Depths derived from HVSR are consistent with borehole data from wells Wei-4 and Wei-5. Comparisons with two published borehole profiles further show that cross-sections extracted from our 3D model reproduce the depth-variation trends observed in the borehole records. Spatial variations in burial depth and amplitude ratio for f0 and f1 are closely related to regional tectonic and sedimentary evolution. The depth to the base of the Sanmen Formation, inferred from f0, is shallower in the west and deeper in the east, with the transition bounded by the Qishan-Mazhao Fault. The corresponding amplitude ratio(reflecting impedance contrast)is higher in the west and lower in the east. This pattern is consistent with uplift and erosion of the western block since the Pliocene, which produced thinner Sanmen sediments and a stronger impedance contrast, whereas the eastern depression underwent more continuous deposition and weaker environmental variability, yielding thicker Sanmen deposits and a smaller impedance contrast. Peak f1 reflects the interface between the Sanmen Formation and the Qinchuan Group. From the Sanmen stage to deposition of the Qinchuan Group, paleo-Sanmen Lake in the central Weihe Basin contracted markedly and loess deposition migrated from the basin margins toward the center. The later onset of loess accumulation in the basin center resulted in thinner deposits and a larger vertical impedance contrast, whereas peripheral areas experienced more continuous fluvial-aeolian sedimentation during the Quaternary, leading to a smaller impedance contrast. Pre-existing topography and faulting also influenced thickness variations; for example, along the northern segment of the Weihe Fault, uplifted terrain corresponds to thinner deposits, whereas the southern downthrown block contains thicker accumulations. In summary, we developed a shallow 3D sedimentary model for the western margin of the Weihe Basin and produced maps of fundamental resonance frequency and site amplification factor. The model agrees with available borehole constraints and regional geological understanding. These results provide a data basis for site-effect assessment and a geophysical reference model for investigating tectonic and environmental evolution. The HVSR approach used here may also serve as a useful complementary method for future studies of shallow sedimentary structure.
The arcuate tectonic belt along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau represents the leading edge of the plateau’s northeastward expansion. Since the Late Cenozoic, this region has accommodated intense tectonic activity, forming four major active fault zones aligned from south to north: the Haiyuan, Tianjingshan, Yantongshan, and Sanguankou-Niushoushan-Luoshan Faults. Situated between the Tianjingshan and Luoshan Faults, the Yantongshan Fault lies at the triple junction of the Qaidam, Alxa, and Ordos blocks.
While previous studies have extensively focused on the larger, more active Tianjingshan and Luoshan Faults, research on the Yantongshan Fault remains sparse. The Tianjingshan fault zone extends for approximately 240km and comprises the northern Tianjingshan Fault and the southern Miaoshan Piedmont Fault. The 1709 Zhongwei M7½earthquake ruptured this zone, which exhibits a late Quaternary left-lateral slip rate of 0.9~1.1mm/a. In contrast, the Luoshan Fault(~50km long)transitioned from thrusting prior to the mid-Late Pleistocene to right-lateral strike-slip motion in the late Late Pleistocene, with an average slip rate of 2.15mm/a.
Unlike its neighbors, the Yantongshan Fault lacks clear geomorphic expression, making it difficult to identify Holocene-active natural fault scarps. Consequently, direct evidence confirming Holocene activity on this fault remains lacking.
The Yantongshan Fault has a total length exceeding 150km and is naturally divided into southern and northern segments by Yaoshan. The northern segment is approximately 90km long, with about 15km concealed beneath the Zhongning Basin and the remaining 75km exposed at the surface. In this study, the northern segment of the Yantongshan Fault was taken as the research object. This study employs methods such as remote sensing interpretation, geological survey, aerial survey of typical geomorphology, trench excavation, and Optically Stimulated Luminescence(OSL)dating. The main findings are as follows: 1) The northern segment of the Yantongshan Fault has linear fault scarps. It is a low-angle reverse fault, dipping to the southwest with a dip angle of about 30°. 2) The geomorphic scarp near Xiaoyushugou in the northern segment of the Yantongshan Fault corresponds to this fault’s trace. During trench excavation, a new fault was identified and has been shown to be active during the Holocene. 3)OSL dating shows that the trench profile records at least two paleo-earthquake events. The latest earthquake event occurred after(7.99±0.42)ka in the Holocene, and at least one paleo-earthquake event occurred after(63.08±3.18)ka in the late Pleistocene. Considering the stratum erosion, the vertical displacements of the two events are at least 1.3m and 1.0m, respectively, and the lower limits of the earthquake magnitudes can reach 6.9 and 6.8. 4) The northern segment of the Yantongshan Fault may still be active at present. Its deep part, together with the Luoshan Fault, intersects the Tianjingshan Fault and ultimately merges with the Haiyuan Fault at the detachment layer. As a secondary fault associated with the Tianjingshan Fault, affected by the northeastward expansion of the Tibetan plateau, there is an abnormal zone of wave velocity and electromagnetism beneath the northern segment of the Yantongshan Fault, which is closely related to moderate-to-strong earthquakes, indicating that it still has seismic risk. Moreover, the longer the energy accumulation time, the higher the current risk. Referring to the average recurrence interval of earthquakes on the Tianjingshan Fault, which is (4 306±212)a, the latest strong earthquake(Event E1) on the Yantongshan Fault exposed by this trench occurred approximately 8 000a later. The elapsed time approaches or even exceeds the recurrence period of paleo-earthquakes, therefore, the seismic risk of its northern segment is urgent.
(U-Th)/He dating is characterized by a low closure temperature(approximately 70℃) and exceptional sensitivity to low-temperature thermal events, allowing for the reconstruction of detailed thermal histories in geological bodies below 300℃. This method has significant potential for constraining the timing of ore deposit formation, documenting uplift and erosion, investigating mountain denudation processes, deciphering deep-time thermal histories, pinpointing the timing of metamorphic deformation, and tracing thermal-tectonic processes in continental rifts and passive margins. Careful consideration of mineral internal structure, closure temperature,4He diffusion and retention behavior, and radiation damage mechanisms is critical for accurate data interpretation. In addition to commonly used apatite and zircon, the method has been expanded to include minerals such as titanite, xenotime, rutile, and garnet, which are suitable for investigating ancient metamorphic thermal events(up to 3 950Ma), including the emplacement age of kimberlites and the burial-exhumation histories of cratons. Moreover, (U-Th)/He dating applied to monazite, garnet, and olivine presents promising solutions for dating young volcanic rocks(as recent as 2.0ka), offering new geological insights. Minerals such as hematite, magnetite, and fluorite allow for the direct dating of ore deposits. Studies on goethite offer new methods for determining the timing and rates of precipitation and weathering in extremely young geological events(~0.4 Million Years), which aids in continental surface reconstruction. The inclusion of minerals such as calcite, conodonts, and crinoids enriches the toolkit for studying sedimentary basin evolution, while investigations of meteorites offer unique perspectives on planetary formation and evolution. Accessory minerals such as spinel, perovskite, and epidote highlight their potential applications in future geochronological studies.In (U-Th)/He geochronology, different minerals demonstrate distinct advantages and limitations. Apatite (U-Th)/He ages are affected by radiation damage and α-particle ejection effects. Age precision can be enhanced through α-particle capture model corrections, multi-elemental analyses, and selection of unaltered grains. The 4He diffusion behavior in titanite is strongly influenced by crystal size, with radiation damage as a key factor. Monazite, enriched in cerium and lanthanum, exhibits high resistance to radiation damage, though its 4He diffusion is significantly affected by thorium content and lattice defects. Xenotime exhibits anisotropic 4He diffusion; high U-Th-induced radiation damage alters diffusion behavior, thereby increasing age uncertainty. Conodonts can constrain the thermal evolution of sedimentary rocks; however, their U-Th content, REE concentrations, and microstructural features influence the reliability of their ages. Zircon, rich in uranium and thorium, displays low 4He diffusivity, which is modulated by grain size, morphology, and accumulated radiation damage. An ideal zircon grain is a tetragonal prism with a 2︰1 length-to-width ratio and a size ranging from 75 to 150μm. Selecting transparent grains with minimal internal cracks or inclusions and evaluating them using multiple analytical techniques can improve age precision. The garnet (U-Th)/He method is particularly effective in determining the emplacement ages of kimberlite bodies and constraining the timing of volcanic eruptions. Olivine contains relatively low concentrations of uranium and thorium, yet it exhibits stable 4He diffusion properties. However, challenges persist, including reduced age precision resulting from low U-Th content, complexities in correcting for initial 4He, and the implantation effects of 4He from surrounding basaltic matrices. Rutile's susceptibility to radiation damage and its anisotropic 4He diffusion behavior can significantly affect dating accuracy. Nonetheless, rutile remains a promising chronometer for unraveling the thermal histories of metamorphic and igneous terrains. Hematite, characterized by multiple diffusion domains, can effectively retain its initial 4He, making it applicable for studying fault slip histories and the timing of hydrothermal fluid circulation. Major limitations include high-temperature 4He release, grain size reduction from fault slip, and surface alteration effects. Low U-Th content, intrinsic crystal defects, and hydration behavior further reduce 4He retention in hematite, resulting in closure temperatures as low as 25-60℃. Magnetite (U-Th)/He geochronology faces issues including sluggish 4He diffusion, variable sample purity, and the risk of uranium loss during high-temperature extraction. Calcite, despite being abundant and chemically stable, is limited in (U-Th)/He dating by its low 4He retention, low closure temperatures(40-80℃), and inherently low helium concentrations. Excess 4He within inclusions and complex multi-domain diffusion behavior contribute to significant variability in age results. Crinoids are capable of resolving thermal histories within the 60-110℃ range. Fluctuations influence the spatial and temporal distribution of crinoids in sea level and oceanic geochemistry. Despite technical challenges-such as low equivalent uranium content and poorly constrained 4He diffusion-crinoid (U-Th)/He geochronology holds considerable promise for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimate studies when optimized analytical protocols, improved diffusion models, and targeted fossil specimens are employed. Fluorite (U-Th)/He dating offers unique advantages, especially in the absence of traditional chronometers, making it an indispensable tool for dating low-to high-temperature hydrothermal systems. Although its closure temperature and 4He diffusion behavior remain poorly constrained, fluorite (U-Th)/He dating provides unmatched potential for deciphering ore deposit ages and associated thermal evolution. Phosphate minerals in meteorites enable the determination of formation and evolutionary stages via (U-Th)/He geochronology. Although meteorite (U-Th)/He dating is constrained by sample rarity, acquisition difficulties, and complex thermal evolution, studying He diffusion in extraterrestrial materials expands the method's applicability and accuracy. Additionally, accessory minerals such as spinel, perovskite, and titanite exhibit potential for (U-Th)/He dating of crustal processes, orogenic dynamics, and deep-earth environments. Epidote, widely distributed in sedimentary and metamorphic rocks, is a promising mineral for tracking rapid cooling episodes and reconstructing paleoclimate conditions.To effectively apply the (U-Th)/He technique and yield robust age determinations, it is crucial to understand the effects of grain size, compositional zoning, internal lattice damage, uranium mobility, inclusions, mineral purity, and closure temperature. This review outlines the characteristics and application scopes of diverse (U-Th)/He minerals, identifies potential sources of data divergence, and proposes corresponding mitigation strategies. The goal is to assist researchers in accurately interpreting (U-Th)/He ages and their geochronological significance, thereby promoting the refinement and broader application of the method.
The Tanlu fault zone is the largest deep-seated fault zone in eastern China, and its Late Quaternary activity remains a key and challenging issue in geological research. This study focuses on the Nanliu segment of the Anqiu-Juxian fault, one of the most active sections of the Tanlu fault zone, and investigates its Late Quaternary activity characteristics, including shallow fault structure, burial depth of the upper fault tip, stratigraphic displacement, vertical slip rate, and related features.
Because the southern segment of the Anqiu-Juxian Fault is mainly expressed as a blind fault, this study employed an integrated approach combining high-resolution shallow seismic reflection profiling with borehole-constrained geological section analysis. Two high-resolution shallow seismic reflection profiles and two borehole-constrained geological sections were completed, and 23 geochronological samples were collected and analyzed. The resulting shallow structural profiles suggest that the southern segment of the Anqiu-Juxian Fault mainly consists of a western branch fault and an eastern branch fault.
The borehole-constrained section at Songjia village reveals that the eastern branch of the Anqiu-Juxian Fault comprises two branch faults, f1 and f2, from west to east. These faults dip eastward at an apparent angle of approximately 80°, exhibit reverse-faulting characteristics, and are arranged in a high-angle stepped pattern. The shallowest burial depth of the upper fault tip of f1 is approximately 3.85m, and its latest activity is dated to (53.9±2.9) to (58.2±2.3)ka. Variations in displacement among the lower strata indicate multiphase activity of the f1 fault, with an average vertical slip rate of approximately 0.03mm/a. The upper fault tip of f2 is buried at a depth of approximately 16.9~18.5m. In the lower part of the borehole core from this section, clear slickensides and densely developed high-angle foliations were observed, indicating dextral-reverse faulting.
The borehole-constrained section at Qiancao Village shows that the western branch of the Anqiu-Juxian Fault consists of five faults, f1-f5, from west to east. These faults dip at approximately 80°, display normal-faulting characteristics, and are distributed in a high-angle stepped pattern. All faults cut the overlying Late Pleistocene strata, with a vertical displacement of approximately 7.0m. Among them, f1 has the shallowest upper fault tip, buried at approximately 9.7m, and its latest activity is dated to (54.8±3.4) to (78.4±3.2)ka. In the lower part of the borehole core from this section, relatively fresh purplish-red fault gouge, slickensides with a dip angle of approximately 40°, and densely developed high-angle schistosity were observed, indicating dextral-normal faulting.
Both the eastern and western branch faults are composed of multiple secondary faults. The occurrence of slickensides, fault gouge, and schistosity in the lower parts of the borehole cores collectively suggests that the fault zone exhibits both reverse and normal components under a dextral transpressional stress regime. The upper fault tips of the eastern branch are shallower than those of the western branch, indicating stronger activity along the eastern branch. Differences in displacement among different lower stratigraphic levels of the eastern branch fault are inferred to result from multiphase fault activity. A large number of liquefiable soil layers, including silty fine sand, medium-fine sand, and medium-coarse sand, are distributed in the borehole-constrained geological sections. However, no evidence of seismic liquefaction, such as sand veins, was identified. This suggests that the surface rupture zone of the 1668 Tancheng earthquake did not extend into the study area.
The 2011 MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan significantly modified the stress state of the northeastern and North China sections of the Tanlu fault zone, promoting seismic energy accumulation in the Yishu fault zone. In 2024, the Nanliu segment of the Anqiu-Juxian fault, located in the northern part of the Tanlu fault zone, was affected by a MW4.7 earthquake and several moderate aftershocks close to magnitude 4 in the Feidong area at the southern end of the Tanlu fault zone. This event represents the largest earthquake along the Tanlu fault zone in recent years. Considering that the Nanliu segment contains multiple normal and reverse faults, has shallow upper fault tips and complex fault structures, has remained strongly active since the late Quaternary, and has repeatedly been identified as a national seismic risk zone, this segment is considered to pose a certain level of seismic hazard. Further monitoring and investigation of this area are therefore recommended.
The results of this study provide fundamental data for major engineering site selection, urban planning and construction, and earthquake disaster prevention. They also offer reference value for understanding geodynamic issues related to the structural evolution of the Tanlu fault zone.
The Baihetan Hydropower Station, the second largest hydropower station in the world and in China, is located on the lower reaches of the Jinsha River. The reservoir area is characterized by complex topography, geomorphology, geological structures, and climatic conditions, resulting in frequent geological hazards such as landslides. In addition, the well-known Dongchuan debris flow gully, one of the most representative debris flow areas in China, is situated within the Xiaojiang watershed upstream of the reservoir. Therefore, investigating the spatial distribution characteristics of landslide hazards in this region is of great significance for disaster risk mitigation, engineering safety, and regional sustainable development.
The relationship between pre-seismic anomalous trends in apparent resistivity(continuous decreases or increases) and the accumulation of seismogenic deformation has been confirmed by numerous earthquake cases as well as experimental and theoretical studies. After an earthquake releases the previously accumulated deformation, apparent resistivity is expected to change in the direction opposite to the pre-seismic anomaly. In practice, however, pronounced post-seismic step changes are uncommon in observational records because apparent resistivity is an indirect proxy for crustal deformation. Based on a literature survey and data analysis, we identify several stations that exhibited significant resistivity changes within days after the 1976 Tangshan MS7.8 earthquake, the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu MS7.2 earthquake, and the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake. Although the recovery trends over months or longer are generally opposite to the pre-seismic anomalous patterns, the short-term responses during the first few days after the mainshock vary among stations. Some stations that showed a continuous pre-seismic decrease displayed an immediate post-seismic reversal. Others continued to decrease for several days after the earthquake before turning upward and entering a recovery phase opposite to the pre-seismic anomaly. In this study, we compile electrical sounding data from five stations that recorded notable changes within days following the three earthquakes. Using apparent-resistivity sensitivity-coefficient theory, we evaluate the depth-dependent response of formation resistivity. The results suggest that, immediately after an earthquake, resistivity variations in shallow media are larger than those in the underlying strata. As stress and deformation continue to relax, changes in deeper strata increasingly control the longer-term recovery of the preceding anomaly. Thus, resistivity changes at different depths can diverge during the immediate post-seismic period, and the observed behavior cannot be primarily explained by water-level fluctuations. We interpret these patterns in the context of post-seismic stress-strain relaxation. During rupture of a locked fault, accumulated deformation near the source is partially released. Because geological materials are not perfectly elastic, stress and deformation continue to be released after the mainshock, and aftershocks persisting for months further unload residual deformation. Surface rupture during the mainshock promotes more complete deformation release in shallow strata during the immediate post-seismic stage. In contrast, deformation release efficiency likely decreases with depth owing to higher confining pressure, producing larger resistivity increases in shallow layers than in deeper ones. As stress relaxation progresses in the source region, deformation release subsequently affects the observation-station area. Because shallow deformation has already been substantially released, resistivity variations in shallow strata become less pronounced during this phase, whereas continued deformation release at depth drives sustained resistivity increases. Consequently, resistivity changes in deeper strata dominate during the prolonged post-seismic recovery stage. These findings help clarify the relationship between apparent-resistivity variations and regional deformation across three phases: pre-seismic deformation accumulation, short-term post-seismic adjustment, and long-term post-seismic recovery.
The Qaidam Basin, as the largest continental sedimentary basin on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, has formed thick sedimentary strata since the Cenozoic. Its complete and continuous Cenozoic sedimentary strata not only record the sedimentary evolution of the Qaidam Basin but also reflect the uplift and erosion of the adjacent orogenic belts and regional climate-environmental changes. Furthermore, they serve as a crucial resource for understanding the development of the basin-mountain system, tectonic deformation, and the mechanisms and patterns driving the northward expansion of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the northeastern margin. Therefore, it is vital to reconstruct the sedimentary evolution history of the Qaidam Basin during the Cenozoic. Currently, the detrital zircon U-Pb dating method is the most widely used provenance analysis method for reconstructing the basin’s tectonic evolution and the uplift history of the surrounding mountain ranges. However, this method usually relies too heavily on qualitative comparisons of zircon U-Pb age spectra and lacks reliable quantitative analysis. This limitation directly leads to significant differences and disputes in some key understandings, such as the erosion of the source and the transport path of sediments. To address this issue, we selected three representative Cenozoic sedimentary sections on the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin for our study: Dahongou, Hongshan, and Huaitoutala. At the same time, by systematically collecting the latest published U-Pb age data of detrital zircons and basement zircons in modern river sands, we redefined three main provenance areas, including the southern segment of the Qilian Mountains, the East Kunlun Mountains, and the Mesozoic strata in the northern part of the Qaidam Basin. The results show that the Dahongou, Hongshan, and Huaitoutala sections have 6, 2, and 3 distinct shifts in provenance, respectively. Although the sedimentary provenance evolution patterns of these sections are not completely consistent, there is a quasi-synchronous provenance change at ~12-10Ma. Around ~20Ma, the southern Qilian Mountains expanded towards the Qaidam Basin, causing the uplift and erosion of the Mesozoic strata on the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin. All three sections recorded the significant contribution of the Mesozoic provenance from the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin during this period. Although the East Kunlun Mountains experienced a rapid uplift and erosion event in the middle-late Miocene, this tectonic event had a relatively limited impact on the provenance of the Hongshan section, underscoring the limitations of single-section studies for elucidating regional tectonic and sedimentary evolution. Additionally, the simulation of provenance inversion suggests that the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin experienced influences from at least three distinct provenance regions throughout the Cenozoic. The zircon age distribution characteristics of simulated source area Ⅰ closely resemble the detrital zircon age distribution found in modern river sands across the eastern Kunlun Mountains, as per our compilation. Meanwhile, the zircon age distribution in simulated source area Ⅱ closely matches that of modern river sands in the southern Qilian Mountains. Additionally, the provenance area Ⅲ revealed by the inversion simulation exhibits a notable Proterozoic double-peak zircon age signature, although it shows a higher proportion of zircon components exceeding 550Ma, closely aligning with the detrital zircon age composition from the Mesozoic strata(including Jurassic and Cretaceous) of the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin that we compiled. Overall, the inversion simulation results reveal a substantial similarity in the zircon age distribution between the simulated source area III and the Mesozoic strata in the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin. Moreover, in most Mesozoic clastic samples, a significant proportion of the parent material is derived from sources. This suggests that during the Neogene, the relationship between the Mesozoic parent material sources in the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin is more complex than simply a competition between the two end-member source areas, namely the South Qilian Mountains and the East Kunlun Mountains, as has been previously highlighted. Additionally, the Mesozoic strata uncovered by the frontal thrust deformation are likely to be significant contributors to the material supply during the Neogene. Additionally, the provenance inversion simulation in this study is consistent with the above forward simulation results, indicating the rationality and credibility of the provenance interpretation. At the same time, it also shows that, in cases where the number of potential source areas is difficult to determine and the age composition of source-area zircons is difficult to constrain, provenance-inversion simulation will be one of the most effective methods. In conclusion, we believe that the quasi-synchronous provenance change at ~12~10Ma may represent the surface response to the deep-dynamic transformation of the plateau, namely, the delamination of the thickened lithosphere triggers regional tectonic uplift and surface deformation. Besides, the East Kunlun Mountains and the southern Qilian Mountains, the Mesozoic strata distributed in the transition zone between the southern Qilian Mountains and the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin are another important provenance area for the Cenozoic sedimentary process on the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin. The zircon age distribution of these strata is often confused with the provenance of the East Kunlun Mountains in previous studies. These insights provide reliable references for a deeper understanding of the evolution of the Cenozoic Basin-mountain system on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. We emphasize that, in complex basin-mountain systems, simply comparing the age distributions of detrital zircons in most provenance analyses is no longer sufficient. A thorough qualitative and quantitative analysis and assessment are more conducive to obtaining reliable and comprehensive results.
As global energy demand continues to increase, shale gas development through large-scale hydraulic fracturing, involving subsurface fluid injection and extraction, has been increasingly practiced worldwide. In this context, identifying pre-existing geological structures and evaluating their stability in shale gas production areas are essential for ensuring safe shale gas development. This study focuses on a shale gas production block in the southern Sichuan Basin, China, where a prominent N-S trending strike-slip fault system is developed. By integrating tectonic geomorphological analysis, 3D seismic reflection interpretation, microseismic monitoring data, and mechanical analysis based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, we systematically delineate the spatial geometry and kinematic characteristics of pre-existing faults in the study area and assess the stability of the representative Fault F2 and its secondary faults, providing a reference for subsequent shale gas development and production safety.
A joint surface-subsurface structural analysis of the fault system was conducted using high-resolution surface DEM data and seismic reflection data. The results show that the fault system consists of dozens of subparallel, nearly N-S-trending strike-slip faults with right-lateral kinematics. These faults extend to the surface in the core of an NEE-SWW-trending anticline, forming distinct linear fault valleys, and widely produce right-lateral offsets of several hundred meters, approximately 300-1 000m, in drainage systems and ridges.
Furthermore, the stability of a representative fault, F2, and its impact on shale gas production were assessed by combining real-time microseismic monitoring data acquired during hydraulic fracturing with quantitative mechanical analysis based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. Microseismic event locations indicate that, although most events are concentrated near the main Fault F2, they are not distributed along F2 in the N-S direction. In addition, focal mechanism solutions suggest that these microseismic events are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip motion, opposite to the kinematic characteristics of F2. These observations indicate that the large N-S-trending main fault, which exceeds 10km in length, is unlikely to be the seismogenic fault. Instead, NE-trending secondary left-lateral strike-slip faults derived from F2 and located within approximately 300m of the main fault may be more susceptible to stress-perturbation-induced seismicity during shale gas development.
Mechanical analysis based on the stress field inverted from focal mechanism solutions and the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion further supports this interpretation. The results indicate that the present-day maximum principal stress is oriented approximately N17°E. Under this stress regime, the NE-trending secondary faults are more favorably oriented for slip and require a smaller fluid-pressure perturbation to reach failure than the main N-S trending fault. Consequently, these secondary faults exhibit significantly higher instability potential, whereas the main fault remains comparatively stable owing to its less favorable orientation relative to the contemporary stress field and its larger scale, which may facilitate faster fluid-pressure diffusion.
These findings highlight that not all pre-existing faults pose high risks to shale gas development and that fault stability must be evaluated in relation to the in situ stress state. In subsequent development of this block, attention should be paid to the high-risk NE-trending secondary faults, and appropriate avoidance or mitigation measures should be adopted. The results provide support for optimizing engineering design, mitigating induced-seismicity risk, and promoting safe and efficient shale gas development.
The North China Basin, with great thick sedimentary layers, is located in the eastern part of the North China Craton and is one of the important sedimentary basins in eastern China. There are a large number of buried faults in the North China Basin. Some of buried faults are strong activity and have experienced major earthquakes, such as the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8 earthquake and the 1976 Tangshan MS7.8 earthquake. The geometric distribution and depth of these buried faults remain uncertain. Thus, it is very important to study spatial distribution and the intersecting relationships of the main faults in the region, and high-resolution aeromagnetic data is key. In the paper, the high-precision aeromagnetic field data of the North China Basin are collected and are reduced to the pole at variable latitudes. Using the vertical first-order derivative and tilt-derivative edge-enhancement methods, and with reference to existing geological data, the geometric distribution and intersection relationships of the major faults are reinterpreted and corrected. The derivative methods have inherent limitations in the sedimentary area; the correction results are compared with previous data to ensure the reliability of the interpretation results. Moreover, the Euler deconvolution method is used to estimate the apparent depth of some buried faults in the basin. Its cutting depth is inferred and verified with other geophysical results. The result shows that the aeromagnetic field is divided into four blocks: the chaotic magnetic zone of the northern Yanshan uplift, the high magnetic zone of the western Taihang uplift, the medium-high magnetic zone of the central North China Basin, and the low magnetic zone of the southern Luxi uplift. The North China Basin is characterized by multiple secondary structural units with alternating NE-trending uplifts and depressions. The 59 major faults are interpreted and corrected using the aeromagnetic field and its derivative, with faults mainly oriented NNE and NE, supplemented by NW, NS, and near-EW orientations. In the NNE direction, among them buried faults such as the Baoding-Shijiazhuang Fault, the Cangxi Fault, the Cangdong Fault, and the Tangshan Fault exhibit beaded bands, linear anomalies, magnetic gradient strip and so on. In the NW direction, the magnetic field characteristics of the Xiadian Fault, the Baodi Fault, and the Nankou-Sunhe Fault are faint, showing magnetic conversion and fault-bent strips, suggesting they played a regulatory role in structural deformation. The Euler results show the apparent depth and cutting scales of 13 buried faults within the basin. Among them, 6 buried faults are middle-shallow scale faults: the Huangzhuang-Gaoliying Fault, the Nankou-Sunhe Fault, the Baodi Fault, the Cangdong Fault, the Cangxi Fault and the Liaocheng-Lankao Fault; and 7 buried faults are middle-deep scale faults: The Baoding-Shijiazhuang Fault, the Shunyi-Liangxiang Fault, the Xiadian Fault, the Jiyunhe Fault, the Tangshan Fault, the Chengxi-Yangerzhuang Fault and the Handan Fault. Multi-scale aeromagnetic computation and inversion provide a new technical approach for investigating the spatial distribution of buried faults. For large areas, especially sedimentary basins with great thick sedimentary layers, this technology is used for preliminary exploration of the geometric distribution and depth of buried faults.
In 1668, a major MW8.5 earthquake struck Tancheng, located in the central-southern segment of the Tanlu fault zone. Jointly resolving P-wave velocities in the crust and uppermost mantle can improve constraints on uppermost-mantle velocity, which is essential for understanding the tectonic mechanisms of strong earthquakes in this fault system and the deep seismogenic setting. Here we perform a joint inversion for crustal and uppermost-mantle P-wave velocity beneath the central-southern Tanlu fault zone using travel times of the first-arriving Pg and Pn phases, together with secondary Pg phases recorded by the seismic network. Incorporating secondary Pg arrivals increases crustal ray coverage and substantially improves the resolution and accuracy of the uppermost-mantle velocity structure. The resulting P-wave model shows that near-surface(0km)high-velocity anomalies broadly correspond to mountain ranges, whereas low-velocity anomalies are mainly associated with sedimentary basins. Arc-shaped, belt-like high-velocity anomalies(5.40~5.54km/s) are observed in the northern Jiaodong Peninsula, the Taihang Mountains, and the Sulu orogenic belt, particularly in the Huaibei-Jining-Tai'an region. In contrast, low-velocity anomalies occur beneath Wuhan(Jianghan Basin), Hefei-Liuan(Hefei Basin), and Juxian(Shandong), and a prominent NS-trending low-velocity belt extends along the Shangqiu-Heze-Puyang-Liaocheng corridor(4.80~4.89km/s). At depths of 10~15km, high velocities dominate beneath the Dabie orogenic belt, Huainan-Bengbu, the Luxi uplift, and the Jiaodong Peninsula, whereas pronounced low-velocity anomalies appear beneath the Yangzhou-Changzhou-Suzhou to Shanghai-Nantong sector of the Subei Basin and the southern Yellow Sea. At ~15km depth, velocity structure differs markedly across the Tanlu fault zone: The western side from Juxian southward to the Dabie orogen exhibits strong high-velocity anomalies, while the eastern Subei-southern Yellow Sea Basin and the Xinyi-Lianyungang area are characterized by low velocities. At ~20km depth, the velocity pattern changes relative to the upper and middle crust and shows strong along-strike segmentation within the Tanlu fault zone. North of Tancheng, a low-velocity anomaly is present; from Tancheng to Sihong, a high-velocity anomaly reaches a maximum of 6.39km/s; from Sihong to Lujiang, low velocities dominate, with a minimum of 6.03km/s near Jiashan. The Dabie orogenic belt exhibits a high-velocity anomaly of ~6.43km/s. At depths of 25~30km, which mainly reflect the middle-lower crust, high-velocity anomalies dominate beneath the Dabie orogen, the Taihang Mountains, and northern Jiangsu-southern Yellow Sea, with additional localized highs near Jiaozhou(Shandong) and Suqian(Jiangsu). Low-velocity anomalies occur in the Tancheng-Anqiu-Weifang segment of the Tanlu fault zone and also along the Liaocheng-Jinan corridor and near Jiashan and Wuhu. Pn velocities in the central-southern Tanlu fault zone are strongly heterogeneous. North of Tancheng, low Pn velocities are mainly distributed on the eastern side of the fault zone, whereas south of Hefei they occur predominantly on the western side. High Pn velocities appear on the eastern side of the fault zone in the Tancheng-Jiashan region. Such heterogeneity likely reflects lateral variations in mechanical strength at the top of the upper mantle beneath different segments of the fault zone. Overall, crustal velocity anomalies correlate with surface geomorphology and the distribution of major faults. In particular, velocity anomalies at 10~15km depth delineate the strike of the Tanlu fault zone. Across the central-southern Tanlu fault zone, the South China Plate and the Lower Yangtze Block display a clear crustal velocity contrast. In the upper-middle crust, low velocities prevail west of the Tanlu fault zone and high velocities to the east; in the lower crust, pronounced high velocities occur east of the Tanlu fault zone and south of the Jiashan-Xiangshui Fault, whereas low velocities dominate to the west. The relative strength contrast between upper and lower crust inferred from the spatial relationship between seismicity and velocity anomalies may play an important role in controlling earthquake occurrence. By incorporating a 3D crustal model, the joint inversion enhances the resolution of uppermost-mantle structure, revealing low-velocity anomalies flanking the epicentral region of the 1668 Tancheng MW8.5 earthquake and strong uppermost-mantle heterogeneity beneath the central-southern Tanlu fault zone. Integrating crustal and uppermost-mantle velocity patterns, we divide the central-southern Tanlu fault zone into three segments—north of Tancheng, Tancheng to Jiashan, and south of Jiashan—consistent with previous segmentation studies.
The Jinggu earthquake sequence exhibits two dominant spatial orientations. Immediately after the mainshock, aftershocks propagated along the fault plane in a NW-SE direction. Subsequently, following two MW5.5 strong aftershocks, the sequence expanded primarily in a NNW-SSE direction. These observations imply relatively complex triggering processes between the mainshock and the two MW5.5 events, as well as substantial interactions among aftershocks. Clarifying triggering relationships within the sequence therefore requires a stress-based analysis. To investigate these relationships, we first compiled focal mechanism solutions for 698 historical earthquakes and inverted the regional tectonic stress field in southwestern Yunnan using a 1°×1° grid. We then inverted the local stress field of the seismogenic fault using focal mechanisms of MW≥3.0 events within the Jinggu sequence. The regional and local stress fields were used to constrain static Coulomb stress calculations on the optimally oriented fault plane, thereby improving result robustness. Based on the mainshock rupture model, we used Coulomb3.3 to evaluate the sensitivity of static Coulomb stress change to different friction coefficients and centroid depths. We further constructed source-fault models for 20 MW≥3.0 aftershocks using empirical scaling relationships and calculated Coulomb stress transfer among these events. This workflow aims to quantify stress triggering from the mainshock to aftershocks and among aftershocks themselves. The results indicate that the regional stress field in the area 23°~24°N and 99.5°~100.5°E is broadly consistent with the local stress field inferred for the Jinggu seismogenic fault. The maximum principal stress axis indicates NNE-SSW compression, with dominant azimuths of 12°(regional) and 25°(local). The minimum principal stress axis indicates NWW-SEE extension, with dominant azimuths of 102°(regional) and -65°(local). Stress shape ratios(R) of 0.50 and 0.59 suggest overall stress regimes approximating a uniaxial extension-uniaxial compression state and a biaxial extension-uniaxial compression state, respectively. Coulomb stress-change patterns computed using different friction coefficients show consistent spatial trends. As the friction coefficient increases, the likelihood of mainshock-triggered aftershocks increases, but the effect becomes weak once the coefficient exceeds ~0.4. Accordingly, we adopt the commonly used empirical value for subsequent calculations. Coulomb stress-change patterns are also broadly consistent across tested depths; therefore, we use a centroid depth of 5km. Under these assumptions, ~73.46% of aftershocks are located within stress-loading zones. Cross-sections along the sequence trend indicate Coulomb stress changes extending vertically to ~25km depth and laterally for ~40km along strike. The concentration of aftershocks within stress-loading areas is consistent with the inferred mainshock rupture process. Within the MW≥3.0 aftershock set, ~55% of events are classified as triggered. The two MW5.5 strong aftershocks are associated with stress loadings of 0.251MPa and 0.376MPa, respectively, far exceeding the commonly cited triggering threshold of 0.01MPa. Coulomb stress calculations for the Mw≥3.0 sequence further indicate a multiphase triggering process governing its spatiotemporal evolution. Aftershocks initially expanded preferentially toward the NW and later shifted toward the SE. The first MW5.5 event marks a key turning point: it not only directly triggered a subsequent cluster of aftershocks extending approximately NS, but also altered the overall migration pattern of the sequence. Mutual triggering among aftershocks is already pronounced prior to the MW5.5 event; specifically, 8 of the 13 preceding events show clear triggering effects on subsequent earthquakes. This behavior is primarily attributed to superposition of static Coulomb stress perturbations generated by multiple events, which can operate through two end-member mechanisms. When stress changes from different sources are similarly oriented, they act constructively on the receiver fault and expand the affected region beyond the initial perturbation. Conversely, when stress orientations differ, they generate complex spatial variations in stress magnitude and direction on the receiver fault, producing a heterogeneous aftershock distribution. As a result, aftershocks not directly triggered by the mainshock may still be promoted by stress transfer from other aftershocks. The MW5.5 aftershock sequence may have occurred on a branching structure with a different orientation from the mainshock fault, or on an unmapped blind fault. The distinctive triggering behavior of the Jinggu sequence provides useful constraints for assessing post-seismic evolution and for seismic hazard analysis.
Fault-contact heterogeneity is a common property of natural fault zones. Studying the relationship between seismic activity and fault-contact heterogeneity may provide new perspectives on the spatial relationship between small seismic events and mainshocks. In this study, granite samples were prepared by polishing, and experimental faults with heterogeneous contact characteristics were constructed by prefabricating the geometric morphology of the fault surfaces. The experimental faults were designed with a periodic, alternating structure of strong-contact and weak-contact zones of equal area, thereby achieving controllable fault-contact heterogeneity. On this basis, shear tests were performed under different average normal stresses to investigate fault-slip instability, generating stick-slip motion and simulating natural earthquakes at the laboratory scale. During the experiments, acoustic emission(AE)signals and local fault strain were synchronously monitored, and the magnitudes of AE events were calculated using the empirical Green’s function method. This method provides a unified scale for results under different experimental conditions, facilitating not only horizontal comparisons between groups but also scaling analogies between laboratory earthquakes and natural earthquakes, thus improving the extrapolation applicability of experimental results. Meanwhile, the μDA method was adopted to supplement the calculation of the mainshock magnitude. Key parameters, including the spatial-temporal distribution, magnitude characteristics, event frequency, and stress drop of foreshocks and mainshocks within the fault stick-slip cycle, were systematically analysed to reveal the coupled effects of fault contact heterogeneity and average normal stress on seismic activity. The experimental results showed that: 1) The fault contact heterogeneity has a significant influence on the distribution of small AE events and the initial locations of mainshocks. Namely, the small AE events are concentrated in areas of high normal stress or in areas with high gradients of normal stress. At the same time, the initial locations of the mainshocks are usually relative to the areas of high ratio of shear stress to normal stress, suggesting that the mechanisms of small AE events and mainshocks may be different. Additionally, the frequency of small AE events increases significantly as the mainshocks approach, while spatially, the small AE events activity is not in the same contact zone as the mainshocks. 2) The moment magnitudes of the AE events, which were obtained based on an empirical Green’s function method, are mostly between -8 and -7 for the small AE events but are between -4.6 and -4.1 for the mainshocks. Both the displacement results are used to calculate the main shock magnitude, which is between -3.4 and -3.0. The results of different methods can provide important constraints for the laboratory seismic scale system. 3) The average normal stress has significantly different effects on the magnitude and stress drop between the small AE events and main shocks. The magnitudes and stress drops of small AE events are not sensitive to the average normal stress. On the other hand, both the magnitudes and stress drops of the main shocks increase significantly as average normal stress increases. In either small AE events or the mainshocks, the logarithm of the stress drop increases with magnitude, and the relationship between the two is approximately linear, consistent with results from some other laboratory experiments. In summary, fault-contact heterogeneity significantly affects the spatiotemporal distribution of acoustic emission events. In conclusion, the heterogeneity of fault contact significantly influences the spatiotemporal distribution of acoustic emission events. Notably, the spatial inconsistency between major earthquakes and minor seismic activity highlights potential uncertainties in strong earthquake prediction using minor seismic data. The non-uniform distribution of fault-contact stress serves as a key factor controlling the spatial distribution of minor and major earthquakes, providing crucial laboratory evidence for understanding the relationship between background seismic activity and strong earthquakes in natural fault systems.
Active anticlines, as first-order structural elements within foreland thrust systems, play a fundamental role in seismic hazard assessment. Surface fault expression and deformation style directly constrain estimates of seismic potential. The Kash anticline thrust system, located within the Pamir-South Tianshan convergent zone, hosts Holocene-active deformation. Its intense and persistent tectonic activity poses a significant seismic threat to Kashgar City. However, fault-related studies remain limited, and key issues—including fault trace distribution on both limbs, structural segmentation, and slip rates—remain unresolved.
This study applies a multi-scalar methodological framework to systematically investigate the fault-related deformation of the southwestern segment of the Kashgar anticline: 1)High-resolution satellite imagery, UAV-derived orthophoto mosaics, and digital elevation models(DEMs), combined with detailed field investigations, were employed to identify and interpret fault traces; 2)Paleoseismic trenching was conducted at representative geomorphic sites, resulting in the excavation of three trenches(TC1-TC3)at two key locations(Shuijing and Haitang), directly revealing fault geometries and deformational features; 3)At trench TC4, optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)dating was performed on eolian sand lenses located within the overlying(XJ24-49)and underlying(XJ24-50)strata across the fault tip to constrain the timing of fault activity; 4)UAV-based high-resolution DEMs were used to systematically measure fault scarp heights, and cumulative offset probability density(COPD)curves were generated and compared with trenching results.
The integrated interpretation of satellite image analysis, UAV photogrammetry, field surveys, trench excavations, and scarp morphology analysis delineates the spatial distribution, segmentation characteristics, and paleoseismic deformation history of the northern limb of the Kashgar anticline. A nearly east-west-trending fault scarp extends for ~20km along the northern limb. Multiple Holocene alluvial fan surfaces are displaced by the fault, with cumulative vertical displacements ranging from 0.13m to 3m. The fault system can be subdivided into western, central, and eastern segments based on geomorphic and structural features, demarcated by the Chakmak River and Ake Expressway. In the western segment(~15.7km), located along the mountain front, north-directed thrust scarps dominate. Trenching at TC1 and TC2 reveals north-vergent reverse faults reaching the ground surface, with no overlying sediments, indicating that the most recent surface-rupturing event is geologically recent. The central segment(~4.7km), situated across T2 and T3 terrace surfaces, shows well-developed scarps produced by both north-verging thrusts and south-verging backthrusts. Trench TC3 exposes such a fault pair, and the most recent earthquake event is capped by only ~0.3m of sediment, suggesting an occurrence within the past century. In the eastern segment, low-angle north-dipping faults are observed in a large quarry exposure, but historical imagery shows no surface faulting. TC4 reveals a buried fault with no surface rupture. OSL dating of sediments overlying the fault tip yields an age of(1.0±0.9)ka, while the deformed underlying unit dates to(8.6±2.9)ka, suggesting a Holocene-active blind fault. The COPD curves derived from cumulative offset measurements in the western and central segments were compared with deformation revealed in trenches TC1 and TC3. The first prominent peak in the COPD likely represents cumulative effects from multiple seismic events rather than a single coseismic displacement.
By integrating tectonic geomorphology, trench observations, chronological constraints, statistical analysis of fault scarps, and historical seismicity—especially the 1902 Artux earthquake rupture zone—the following conclusions are drawn: 1)The northern limb of the Kashgar anticline exhibits clear segmentation: the western segment is dominated by north-verging thrust faults; the central segment is characterized by both forethrust and backthrust structures; and the eastern segment is defined by a buried Holocene-active fault; 2)It is inferred that the northern limb of the Kashgar anticline likely participated in the 1902 Artux earthquake, generating a series of fault scarps at the surface; 3)COPD curves alone may be insufficient to reliably resolve individual paleoearthquake events, especially when the first major peak reflects cumulative displacements from multiple events. Additional constraints, including trenching and chronometric data, are essential to refine paleoearthquake interpretations.
Tianchi volcano at Changbai Mountain is the most eruption-prone Cenozoic active volcano in China. It experienced four major Holocene eruptions, among which the eruption around AD 946 is regarded as one of the largest worldwide in the past 2000 years. In recent years, Tianchi has shown clear signs of unrest, including a strong disturbance from 2002 to 2005 and a weaker episode from December 2020 to June 2021. The volcanic area remains under a compressional stress regime, and continued attention to regional stress conditions and magmatic activity is therefore warranted. Gravity monitoring provides an effective means to track and investigate active volcanoes by constraining subsurface mass redistribution associated with magma and hydrothermal processes. Because magma originates in the mantle and differs in density from crustal rocks, its movement within the crust can produce microgravity changes of tens to hundreds of microgals. The observed gravity field reflects the combined effects of topography, lateral density variations within the crust and surrounding materials, and even contributions from upper-mantle structure. Differences in station elevation, changes in near-surface rock density, and magma migration(intrusion and withdrawal)can all drive measurable gravity variations, which can be quantified through high-precision repeat gravity surveys. To assess current magmatic activity, the Second Monitoring and Application Center of the China Earthquake Administration conducted three phases of mobile gravity measurements in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Observations were collected using two Burris relative gravimeters with a nominal precision of 10×10-8m/s-2. Each campaign was carried out during July-August with the same instruments and a consistent observer team, thereby reducing potential influences from seasonal effects and operator-related differences. The results show that gravity changes from 2021 to 2022 ranged from -161.4 to 23.4μGal and were predominantly negative. From 2022 to 2023, changes ranged from -37.8 to 135.7μGal and were mainly positive. Over the full interval from 2021 to 2023, gravity variations ranged from -90.6 to 56.0μGal, with negative changes prevailing. Gravity anomalies are observed within ~35km of the crater, implying the approximate extent of active magma/hydrothermal influence. Stations with changes exceeding 100μGal are concentrated within ~12km of the crater, which may reflect magma-related processes in an intermediate, roughly cylindrical conduit. The largest gravity change occurs west of the crater, suggesting the presence of a nearby deep fault. In addition, gravity changes on both sides of the crater show clustered patterns, potentially indicating activity associated with distinct slab-like magma bodies. The combined analysis of gravity and deformation observations is widely used for long-term volcanic-hazard assessment because it provides complementary constraints on subsurface structure, mass redistribution, and/or pressure changes. The gravity-height change gradient(Δg/Δh)directly reflects the balance between mass change and surface displacement and can be interpreted using established zoning based on the relationship between Δg and Δh. Data plotting in Zone Ⅰ (below the Bouguer-corrected free-air gradient, BCFAG) indicate subsidence with negative Δg, consistent with a decrease in density or mass(e.g., magma drainage, a falling water table, void generation, or vesiculation), implying a low likelihood of eruption. Zone Ⅱ (above the free-air gradient, FAG) also indicates subsidence but with positive Δg, reflecting increased density or mass(e.g., magma input, rising water table, dyke emplacement, bubble resorption, void filling, or hydrothermal cementation), likewise suggesting a low eruption probability. Zone Ⅲ (between FAG and BCFAG)corresponds to subsidence with positive Δg and is interpreted as increased density accompanied by decreased mass, which may result from magma drainage, a falling water table, or void closure and can be associated with summit-collapse potential. Gradients plotting along or close to the ordinate indicate shallow processes such as magma and/or gas fluctuations within feeder conduits, near-surface dyke emplacement, or hydrothermal activity. Leveling and InSAR observations since 1992 indicate short-term deformation fluctuations but low long-term deformation rates during quiescent periods. Deformation is mainly concentrated near the crater, with localized contributions from fault activity. During 2021-2023, Tianchi remained in a quiescent state with minimal deformation. Based on the observed deformation behavior, Δg/Δh is inferred to fall predominantly within Zone Ⅰ for 2021-2022 and Zone Ⅲ for 2022-2023. Given the large gravity changes and the small deformation amplitudes(within several tens of millimeters), Δg/Δh is expected to plot close to the ordinate. After accounting for density constraints and excluding the influence of water bodies, the gravity variations are best explained by subsurface mass redistribution, suggesting ongoing magma and/or gas migration within transport conduits or along faults. Integrating magnetotelluric, seismic, and gravity constraints on the crust-mantle magmatic system beneath the crater, we propose that the minor unrest in 2020-2021 increased seismicity, likely modulated by the surrounding compressional stress field. Rising magma may have partially reopened previously obstructed pathways and migrated into pre-existing reservoirs of different sizes and depths. This process could have induced micro-fracturing in the host rock, triggering earthquakes at multiple depths and producing regional gravity changes. After April 2021, seismicity returned to background levels. The presence of substantial gravity changes without pronounced deformation suggests that magma migration primarily involved intrusion into, or withdrawal from, pre-existing voids, fractures, or fault-related spaces. The negative gravity changes observed in 2021-2022 may reflect magma withdrawal and mass loss following the 2020-2021 unrest, whereas the positive changes in 2022-2023 suggest renewed ascent of melt under compressive loading, with magma filling existing voids and fault zones. Over 2021-2023, the dominant negative trend implies that the mass withdrawn in 2021-2022 exceeded the mass added in 2022-2023. Collectively, these results indicate that magmatic activity beneath Tianchi remains ongoing.