Abstract: A probability increasing model of strong earthquake occurence is discussed based on conditioned probability equation inferred for earthquake occurrence with precursors,At same time,the various calculation ways for unconditional probability are shown with non-uniform spatial seismicity and seismic data.Finally,as a example,the unconditional probability and the probability of strong earthquake in coming 10 years in seismic zones of North China have been calculated by several methods.

Key words: Probability model,Seismic risk evaluation, Long-term earthquake prediction, North China

摘要： 由推导的前兆存在时强震发生的条件概率表达式,讨论了地震发生的概率增益模型。同时,由空间地震活动和地震资料的不均一性,研究了平稳条件概率的各种计算方法。最后,以华北地区的各地震带为例,用多种方法计算了它们的平稳无条件概率和河北北部区域未来10年的强震发生概率。

关键词: 概率模型, 地震危险性评估, 长期预报, 华北