基于现场调查的地震灾害损失预评估——以云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.04.027

地震地质 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 1148-1159.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.04.027

基于现场调查的地震灾害损失预评估——以云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州为例

宋平, 聂高众, 邓砚, 安基文, 高娜, 范熙伟, 李华玥

中国地震局地质研究所, 地震应急技术与减灾信息研究室, 北京 100029

收稿日期:2015-11-23 修回日期:2016-04-26 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2017-01-20
通讯作者: 聂高众,研究员,E-mail:niegz@ies.ac.cn
作者简介:宋平,女,1988年生,2013年于中国地震局地质研究所获第四纪地质硕士学位,研究方向为地震应急与减灾,电话:13261058863,E-mai:songping217@126.com。
基金资助:
地震灾情服务及应急决策支撑平台研究项目（2012BAK15B06）资助

PRE-ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LOSSES BASED ON FIELD SURVEY AND KILOMETER GRID DATASET: A CASE STUDY FROM DEHONG DAI-JINGPO AUTONOMOUS PREFECTURE

SONG Ping, NIE Gao-zhong, DENG Yan, AN Ji-wen, GAO Na, FAN Xi-wei, LI Hua-yue

Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2015-11-23 Revised:2016-04-26 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2017-01-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

地震灾害损失预评估是地震应急领域做好地震应急准备工作和减轻地震灾害损失的一项行之有效的方法。目前，地震灾害损失预评估大多依托于灾害损失预评估集成软件，缺乏实际地震灾害现场调查和历史地震损失结果的验证。文中以地震应急灾情快速评估与动态可视化软件为集成平台，系统总结了研究区自然条件、人口数量及分布特征、经济特点、交通状况和历史地震损失等情况，以现场调查的建筑物类型和比例为修正依据，通过与实际历史地震造成的地震灾害损失对比，对德宏傣族景颇族自治州进行了地震灾害损失预评估。通过文中的分析得出，在可视化软件评估的基础上，根据现场调查建筑物的类型比例对软件预评估结果进行修正能够有效提高灾害损失的评估精度，该套评估方法具有一定的理论意义和实践价值，具有很强的推广潜力，不仅限于本研究区，对其他地区也有适用价值。

关键词: 地震灾害损失, 预评估, 软件评估, 现场调查

Abstract:

The pre-assessment of earthquake damage based on field surveys and grid dataset in 1km resolution is very helpful for emergency preparedness and mitigation of earthquake disaster losses.In this paper,we briefly introduced the contents,principles,methods and the results of software assessment as well as the revised results after field surveys.In addition,the emergency supplies and manpower requirements after the outbreak of earthquake are discussed.The assessment contents include the earthquake affected area and population,the amount of casualties,injuries,economic losses,and the number of population to be resettled.Scenario earthquake is set with an interval of 50 kilometers along the major faults and the losses induced by earthquake are outputted by the software.After that,the software outputs are revised based on field surveys.In addition,according to the earthquake cases happening between 2008 and 2015,the growth curve model used to estimate the demand of rescue supplies and teams is also proposed in this study.Based on this model and the software named earthquake emergency disaster rapid assessment and dynamic visualized software (NIE Gao-zhong,2014),and with the help of the statistical data such as population density and socio-economic situations,earthquake losses are pre-assessed by taking Dehong Dai-Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture as an example.The comparison shows that the actual losses are nearly the same as the software outputs.However,due to the ignorance of the casualties caused by geological disasters,the revised casualties are more than the software output.Not only the study area discussed in this paper,the earthquake loss assessment method can also be used to other regions in China.

Key words: earthquake damage, pre-assessment, software evaluation, field survey

中图分类号:

P694

宋平, 聂高众, 邓砚, 安基文, 高娜, 范熙伟, 李华玥. 基于现场调查的地震灾害损失预评估——以云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州为例[J]. 地震地质, 2016, 38(4): 1148-1159.

SONG Ping, NIE Gao-zhong, DENG Yan, AN Ji-wen, GAO Na, FAN Xi-wei, LI Hua-yue. PRE-ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LOSSES BASED ON FIELD SURVEY AND KILOMETER GRID DATASET: A CASE STUDY FROM DEHONG DAI-JINGPO AUTONOMOUS PREFECTURE[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2016, 38(4): 1148-1159.

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基于现场调查的地震灾害损失预评估——以云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州为例

PRE-ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LOSSES BASED ON FIELD SURVEY AND KILOMETER GRID DATASET: A CASE STUDY FROM DEHONG DAI-JINGPO AUTONOMOUS PREFECTURE

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