关键词: 门源M_S6.9地震, 地震活动性, “亚失稳”理论, 地球物理场异常时空演化, 地震预报

Abstract:

The “sub-instability” earthquake prediction theory, combined with field-to-source and source-to-field techniques, offers a method for determining the location and timing of future earthquakes in key geological structures and active fault zones. Following the 2021 Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake, seven more earthquakes with magnitudes ≥5 occurred along the eastern section of the Altyn Tagh fault zone and the Qilian Mountain seismic belt. According to active earthquake period statistics, the Qilian Mountains tectonic belt remains one of the most active seismic zones in mainland China. Among the moderate to strong earthquakes, the Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake in Qinghai had the most significant impact.
The evolution from earthquake incubation to development is complex and multifaceted. The successful spatiotemporal prediction of the Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake exemplifies the effectiveness of integrating long-, medium-, short-, and imminent-term earthquake forecasting by Chinese seismologists. In late 2015, the China Earthquake Administration's M7 Task Force identified high-risk zones for major earthquakes(M≥7) in mainland China for the period 2016-2025, based on geological structures, seismological data, and geophysical changes. The central section of the Qilian Mountain seismic belt(specifically the Lenglong Ridge Fault)was designated as one of these high-risk zones, representing a long-term forecast. In 2021, the China Earthquake Administration identified the region from Jiayuguan in Gansu Province to Menyuan in Qinghai Province as a seismic hazard zone for the following year(with a forecast of around magnitude 6), reflecting a medium-term prediction. Additionally, in December 2021, the Qinghai Earthquake Agency issued a short-term forecast(one month prior to the event), warning of a potential magnitude 6-7 earthquake in the Qinghai region.
An analysis of seismic activity tracking and anomalous spatiotemporal evolution leading up to the earthquake revealed several key seismological anomalies detected by the Gansu-Qinghai seismic network. Notably, the Qilian Mountain seismic belt experienced 1.95 years of quiescence for magnitude 5 earthquakes, which was subsequently interrupted by the M_S5.5 Aksai earthquake on August 26, 2021. Additionally, the M_L3.6 earthquake in Guyuan, Ningxia, on June 22, 2021, ended an 880-day period of quiescence in the central-eastern section of the Qilian Mountains. These disruptions increased concerns about the likelihood of intermediate-to strong-magnitude earthquakes in the region.
Major geophysical anomalies, including 23 instances of localized deformation, electromagnetic, and subsurface fluid anomalies, were detected along the Qilian Mountain structural belt over the past four years. Analyzing the sequence of these anomalies revealed that: 1)5 background anomalies(lasting over 1 year)were distributed 300km from the epicenter; 2)2/3 of the 8 medium-term anomalies(lasting 0.3 months to 1 year)were within 200km of the epicenter; and 3)4/5 of the 10 short-term and imminent anomalies(less than 3 months)were within 180km of the epicenter. Since July 2021, medium-to short-term anomalies have become concentrated in the central-eastern section of the Qilian Mountain seismic belt, an area with one of the strongest monitoring capabilities and densest station distributions within the Gansu-Qinghai seismic network. As these anomalies emerged in clustered, synchronous patterns, seismic authorities promptly organized field verification and tracking.
By integrating significant seismic events with geological structural features, authorities issued short-term forecasts prior to the earthquake, leading to effective disaster mitigation outcomes. This demonstrates that, under tectonic conditions in areas covered by seismic monitoring networks, the “sub-instability” theory can guide the research on anomalous changes in observational data, providing valuable support for earthquake prediction and reducing potential losses from future major earthquakes.

Key words: Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, seismic activity, “Sub-instability” theory, spatiotemporal evolution of geophysical field anomalies, earthquake prediction.