关键词: 水库地震, 概率增益综合预测, 预测效能, 水库地震综合影响因素E值

Abstract: The synthetic probability gain model for earthquake prediction is first introduced into the prediction of reservoir induced earthquake.Its basic principle is described.The possible factors affecting the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake are approached.According to the basic reservoir data and the cases of reservoir induced earthquakes in China,the forecast efficiency R-value and the empirical probability gain K-value of partial factors or predicting indices for maximum magnitude forecast of reservoir induced earthquake,such as comprehensive effect parameter E-value,the reservoir capacity and the water depth of reservoir,are statistically calculated and appraised.The results demonstrate that the synthetic probability gain model can make a quantitative analysis of the efficiency of the various predicting indices.Then some of reservoirs at home and abroad are selected for retrospective forecast test of maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake using the above indices.The results indicate that the probability gain method is practicable as a new method forecasting the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake.

Key words: reservoir induced earthquake, synthetic probability gain prediction, maximum magnitude, comprehensive effect parameter E-value