Abstract:

So far the potential earthquake magnitude in a tectonic region has scarcely been determined quantitatively. In this paper, we present a method to estimate quantitatively the potential earthquake magnitude. The linearly elastic, plane strain finite element method is used to analyse tectonic stress field. The total strain energy accumulated in the tectonic region and the fracturing area are also calculated. The potential earthquake magnitude is determined by the empirical formula which is related to the strain energy and fracturing area.

Key words: Tectonic region, Fracturing area, Strain energy, Magnitude

摘要：

一个地区未来地震的可能震级的估计是地震危险性评价的一个极其重要的方面。本文根据已知的地质条件,利用线弹平面有限元方法计算区域构造应力场,并确定所积累的总应变能和产生的破裂区面积,然后利用经验公式估计出与断层活动有关的构造地震的可能震级。

关键词: 构造区, 震级, 破裂面积, 应变能