关键词: 水库诱发地震, 综合风险系统, 评价指标体系, 指标筛选, 模糊层次分析法, 加速遗传算法

Abstract: Integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity reflects the complex interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity risk factors and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.Establishing the index system needs comprehensive and integrated studies of seismology,sociology,economics,management and engineering science.An integrated risk system of reservoir induced seismicity consisting of four subsystems of hazard,vulnerability,disaster-reduction capability and disaster condition is presented according to the mechanism analysis of interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.The four subsystems and their second-class indexes make up the preliminary integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity.The preliminary index system is filtrated with expert advisory information and accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,and then the final integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity is established,which can be applied to the integrated risk assessment of reservoir induced seismicity and can provide the supporting technology for establishing early warning system of integrated risk of reservoir induced seismicity.

Key words: reservoir induced seismicity, integrated risk system, assessment index system, index filtration, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, accelerating genetic algorithm