金沙江下游白鹤滩水电站库区蓄水前滑坡分布及其规律分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.20240090

地震地质 ›› 2026, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1): 102-126.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.20240090

金沙江下游白鹤滩水电站库区蓄水前滑坡分布及其规律分析

卞美方¹(), 王盈²⁾, 陈晓利¹⁾, 袁仁茂¹⁾, 田颖颖¹⁾^,^*(), 靳立周³⁾

¹⁾ 中国地震局地质研究所, 中国地震局地震与火山灾害重点实验室, 北京 100029
²⁾ 中国地震应急搜救中心, 北京 100049
³⁾ 浙江省矿产资源集团有限公司, 杭州 310000

收稿日期:2025-07-09 修回日期:2025-11-08 出版日期:2026-02-20 发布日期:2026-03-14
通讯作者: * 田颖颖, 女, 1989年生, 副研究员, 主要研究方向为地震地质灾害, E-mail: tianyingying@ies.ac.cn。
作者简介:
卞美方, 女, 2000年生, 现为中国地震局地质研究所第四纪地质学专业在读博士研究生, 主要研究方向为地震地质灾害, E-mail: bianmeifang182@163.com。
基金资助:
中国地震局地质研究所基本科研业务专项(IGCEA2128); 中国地震局地质研究所基本科研业务专项(IGCEA2202); 国家自然科学基金(42307268)

DISTRIBUTION FEATURES OF PREFILLED LANDSLIDES IN BAIHETAN HYDROPOWER STATION RESERVOIR AREA OF LOWER JINSHA RIVER

BIAN Mei-fang¹(), WANG Ying²⁾, CHEN Xiao-li¹⁾, YUAN Ren-mao¹⁾, TIAN Ying-ying¹⁾^,^*(), JIN Li-zhou³⁾

¹⁾ Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake and Volcanic Hazards, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China
²⁾ China Earthquake Emergency Search and Rescue Center, Beijing 100049, China
³⁾ Zhejiang Mineral Resources Group Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310000, China

Received:2025-07-09 Revised:2025-11-08 Online:2026-02-20 Published:2026-03-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

白鹤滩水电站位于金沙江下游, 是中国同时也是世界第二大水电站。库区内地形地貌、地质构造和气候环境复杂, 滑坡等地质灾害频发, 库区上游小江流域还分布着中国最为典型的东川泥石流沟。文中聚焦白鹤滩水电站库区金沙江干流及其支流小江沿线区域, 采用野外调查和遥感影像目视解译方法对白鹤滩库区滑坡进行了解译, 构建了详尽的库区蓄水前滑坡数据库, 并在此基础上利用空间统计分析和地理探测器模型对比分析了金沙江主干河段和支流小江沿线滑坡的分布规律及其主要控制因素。解译结果表明, 该地区至少发育3335个现代滑坡。其中, 在干流段解译出1566个滑坡, 滑坡数量密度(LND)为0.53个/km², 滑坡面积百分比(LAP)为0.34%; 在小江段解译出1769个滑坡, LND为1.18个/km², LAP为0.87%。小江段滑坡的LND与LAP均大于干流段。10个影响因子的分析结果表明, 在海拔<1500m, 坡度为40°~60°, 坡向SE、 S、 SW, 绝对曲率>4, 灰岩与泥岩、粉砂岩地层覆盖, PGA大的地区更容易发生滑坡, 在靠近河流和断裂的地区更容易发生滑坡。同时, 干流段在降雨量低、距道路近的地区更容易发生滑坡, 但这2个因素并不是小江段滑坡分布的主控因素。对干流段而言, 岩性、降雨量、坡度和与断裂的距离是影响滑坡分布主要因子, 而小江段的滑坡分布则主要受到岩性、 PGA、高程和坡度的影响。此外, 造成小江段滑坡发育较干流段更密集的主要原因为2个地区的地形陡峭程度差异、降雨不均匀分布和地质构造及历史地震活动性差异。文中相关成果可为白鹤滩水电站库区蓄水后库区的滑坡危险性评价和灾害防治等研究提供基础数据和科学参考。

关键词: 滑坡目视解译, 白鹤滩库区, 影响因子, 分布规律

Abstract:

The Baihetan Hydropower Station, the second largest hydropower station in the world and in China, is located on the lower reaches of the Jinsha River. The reservoir area is characterized by complex topography, geomorphology, geological structures, and climatic conditions, resulting in frequent geological hazards such as landslides. In addition, the well-known Dongchuan debris flow gully, one of the most representative debris flow areas in China, is situated within the Xiaojiang watershed upstream of the reservoir. Therefore, investigating the spatial distribution characteristics of landslide hazards in this region is of great significance for disaster risk mitigation, engineering safety, and regional sustainable development.

Key words: visual landslides interpretation, Baihetan reservoir, influencing factors, distribution pattern

卞美方, 王盈, 陈晓利, 袁仁茂, 田颖颖, 靳立周. 金沙江下游白鹤滩水电站库区蓄水前滑坡分布及其规律分析[J]. 地震地质, 2026, 48(1): 102-126.

BIAN Mei-fang, WANG Ying, CHEN Xiao-li, YUAN Ren-mao, TIAN Ying-ying, JIN Li-zhou. DISTRIBUTION FEATURES OF PREFILLED LANDSLIDES IN BAIHETAN HYDROPOWER STATION RESERVOIR AREA OF LOWER JINSHA RIVER[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2026, 48(1): 102-126.

图/表 19

图1 研究区构造背景图

Fig. 1 Tectonic background of the study area.

图2 a、 b 白鹤滩水电站蓄水前后的影像对比;c、 d 白鹤滩镇库区蓄水前后的影像对比

Fig. 2 Comparison of images before and after storage in Baihetan Hydropower Station(a、 b); Comparison of impacts before and after water storage in Baihetan Reservoir area(c、 d).

图3 影响因子分类结果图图中区间范围采用“左开右闭”形式

Fig. 3 Impact factor classification results

图4 典型滑坡解译结果展示 a、 b 干流段典型滑坡; c、 d 小江段典型滑坡

Fig. 4 Typical landslides in the study area.

图5 研究区的滑坡分布图

Fig. 5 Map of landslide distribution in the study area.

图6 研究区内滑坡的数量与面积 a 研究区滑坡的总数与面积; b 干流段与小江段的滑坡数量与面积

Fig. 6 The number and area of landslides in the study area.

图7 典型滑坡的灾害野外照片 a 节理控制的滑坡; b 隧道口人工堆坡和小型岩崩; c 金沙江边滑坡; d 研究区内的现代滑坡

Fig. 7 Typical landslide disasters in the study area.

图8 研究区高程与滑坡LND、 LAP的关系

Fig. 8 The relationship among elevation, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图9 研究区坡度与滑坡LND、 LAP的关系

Fig. 9 The relationship among slope, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图10 研究区坡向与滑坡LND、 LAP的关系

Fig. 10 The relationship among aspect, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图11 研究区曲率与滑坡LND、 LAP的关系

Fig. 11 The relationship among curvature, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

表1 岩性分类表

Table1 Classification by lithology

分类	地层时代	岩性描述
1	中元古界Pt	辉绿岩、板岩、变质砂岩、石英岩、辉长岩、白云岩
2	震旦系Z	白云岩、灰岩、泥岩、钙质粉砂岩
3	寒武系∈	杂色页岩、粉砂质页岩、薄层砂岩、灰岩
4	奥陶系O	杂色条带状页岩、砂岩
5	志留系S	页岩、砂页岩、钙质粉砂岩、薄层泥灰岩
6	泥盆系D	石英细砂岩、粉砂岩、泥岩、泥灰岩
7	石炭系C	砂岩、粉砂岩、灰岩、泥灰岩、白云岩
8	二叠系P	砂岩夹灰岩、白云岩、粉砂岩
9	三叠系T	紫红色砾岩、泥岩、灰岩、白云岩、
10	侏罗系J	砂质页岩、粉砂岩、深灰色条带灰岩
11	第四系Q	砾、砂砾、砂、砂质黏土、黏土夹砂砾层

图12 研究区岩性与滑坡LND、 LAP的关系

Fig. 12 The relationship among lithology, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图13 研究区降雨量与滑坡LND、 LAP的关系

Fig. 13 The relationship among precipitation, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图14 研究区滑坡LND、 LAP与距河流距离的关系

Fig. 14 The relationship among distance to river, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图15 研究区滑坡LND、 LAP与距断裂距离的关系

Fig. 15 The relationship among distance to fault, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图16 研究区滑坡LND、 LAP与距道路距离的关系

Fig. 16 The relationship among distance to road, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

图17 研究区PGA与滑坡LND、 LAP的关系

Fig. 17 The relationship among PGA, LND and LAP of landslide in the study area.

表2 影响因子q值统计表

Table2 Statistics of q-value of influence factor

影响因子	干流段q值	影响因子	小江段q值
岩性	0.1120	岩性	0.1083
降雨量	0.0650	PGA	0.0687
坡度	0.0636	高程	0.0576
与断裂的距离	0.0583	坡度	0.0551
高程	0.0502	降雨量	0.0464
与河流的距离	0.0485	坡向	0.0313
坡向	0.0306	与道路的距离	0.0110
与道路的距离	0.0238	与河流的距离	0.0101
PGA	0.0156	与断裂的距离	0.0100
曲率	0.0106	曲率	0.0030

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金沙江下游白鹤滩水电站库区蓄水前滑坡分布及其规律分析

DISTRIBUTION FEATURES OF PREFILLED LANDSLIDES IN BAIHETAN HYDROPOWER STATION RESERVOIR AREA OF LOWER JINSHA RIVER

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