关键词: 地震区划, 特征地震, 地震模型, NB模型累积概率

Abstract: For the potential seismic sources of upper bound magnitude 7.5 or 8.0 in study area of Qilianshan, the occurrence intervals of magnitude 7.0～7.4 or 7.5～7.9 are calculated by using the method of slip rate, respectively. The intensity corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are calculated by using elliptical attenuation of earthquake intensity of western China and mixed model, which includes NB conditional probabilistic model and NB cumulative probabilistic model for characteristic earthquakes, and Segment-Poisson Process for medium earthquakes. The results show that the influence of the potential seismic sources with a long elapse time and a small area are stronger and the influence dilution should be considered for those potential seismic sources of large area.

Key words: Seismic regionalization, Characteristic earthquake, Seismic model, NB cumulative probabilistic model