关键词: 地震滑坡, 死亡人数, 评估模型, 公里网格

Abstract: Scientific assessment of casualties caused by seismic geological hazards is one of the key factors to improve the accuracy of earthquake casualties assessment and to improve the earthquake disaster loss assessment system. However, this problem has long plagued scientists of the earthquake disaster risk assessment and post-earthquake accurate and rapid assessment, so far there is no perfect solution. In this paper, the authors try to develop a new evaluation method based on GIS techniques and the logistic regression model for assessing the earthquake-induced landslide casualties, including three procedures: (1) study area being divided into1㎞×1km 1㎞grid cells, and the population information being assigned to the grid cell as its population attribute; (2) death rate being calculated in each grid cell using the logistic model, and (3) then the death number being added in each grid cell of the study area and the total deaths being evaluated. After that, three earthquake events are selected as case study: the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Ms 6.5 earthquake area, the 2012 Yiliang, Yunnan Ms 5.6&5.7 double-earthquake area, and the 2008 Wenchuan, Sichuan Ms 8.0 earthquake area. Among them, the Ludian earthquake data is selected to establish and test the evaluation method for landslide deaths. The other two is used to test the practicability of new method. For the Ludian earthquake, 233 deaths are calculated based on the new model, with an error rate of 6.80 percent compared with 250 actual deaths and disappearances, and the Kappa coefficient is 0.912, which indicates that the establishment of the model is relatively reasonable. For the Yiliang disaster earthquake event, landslides claimed caused 48 deaths based on the new model, which is 11 less than the actual number, with the error rate of 18.64%, and the Kappa coefficient of 0.899. As for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a total of about 20000 people died and disappeared due to earthquake-induced landslides, the result of model evaluation is 18732, and the error rate is about 6.5%. The results presented in this paper suggests that on the premise of the allowable error, the new evaluation method are practical and can be applied to calculate the landslide deaths in other earthquake events in future.

Key words: earthquake-induced landslides, deaths, evaluation model, one-square-kilometer grid