关键词: 防震减灾基本对策, 下一次强震地点, 针对性设防, 第三类地震预测

Abstract:

At the present stage,the quakeproof-disaster-reduction strategy in China should focus on the macroseism resistance fortification of the regional constructions in the areas where the next strong earthquake is going to occur.The key to implementing this strategy is to precisely predict the location of the next macroseism,rather than the time it will occur (We define this kind of forecast as "the third-type earthquake forecast").Our analysis shows that the next macroseism would most likely occur on those large-scale,severely locked faults located in rigid strong medium and under intensive continuous stress concentration.These characteristic places can be located by employing three technological means,namely,fault survey,crustal stress measurement and cross-fault deformation measurement.Related technologies have been proven feasible.Thus we provide a solution which may lead to the breakthrough for the current quakeproof disaster reduction research in our country.

Key words: quakeproof disaster reduction strategy, next macroseism location, corresponding fortification, the third-type earthquake forecast