地震地质 ›› 1982, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (4): 15-26.

• 科研简报 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国大地震(M≥7)空区及其应用于中长期地震预报的讨论

汪良谋, 国文秀, 王湘南   

  1. 国家地震局地质研究所
  • 收稿日期:1981-09-30 出版日期:1982-12-01 发布日期:2009-11-25

GREAT SEISMIC GAP (M≥7) OF CHINA AND ITS DISCUSSION FOR THE USE OF THE EARTHQUAKS FORECAST OF THE MODERATE-LONG TERM

Wang Liangmou, Guo Wenxiu, Wang Xiangnan   

  1. Institute of Geology, State Seismologieal Bureau
  • Received:1981-09-30 Online:1982-12-01 Published:2009-11-25

摘要: 本文在分析我国大陆地区大地震的广义前震空间分布特点的基础上,对我国历史大地震的空区作了圈定和研究。根据28个历史大地震空区的统计,提出求空区震级和发震时间的经验关系式。最后圈定6个空区作为此方法预报地震的讨论和检验。

Abstract: We mapped out eighteen historical great seismic gaps based on characteristic of spatial distribution of generalized pre-earthquake of China great earthquake.Studying content includes three section:The section 1 is to discuss emphatically the characteristics of great seismic gaps in continental region of China, i. e. universality of the earthquake-brewing and change of earthquake activity in gap. The relationship between seimic gap and tectonics has been discussed summarily.The section 2 is to determine roughly quantitative sign for magnitude and time of occurring major earthguake to come in the light of empirical relations achieved by statistics, for example:1. The relation between area and long axis of gap and magnitude2. The relation between the amount of total earthquake energy in gap and magnitude3. The relation between the whole area of fault plane and magnitude.The section 3 is to try to do earthquake forecast of moterate-long term. Finally we suggest the six gaps of the potential mejor earthquake be put to the test in predicting the earthquake.