地震地质 ›› 1991, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 231-240.

• 科研简报 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国大陆8级地震的有序性——一种新的预测方法

徐道一, 黄建发, 王湘南   

  1. 国家地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:1990-05-31 出版日期:1991-09-04 发布日期:2009-11-25

TEMPORAL ORDERLINESS OF EARTHQUAKES (M≥8) ON CHINA MAINLAND——A NEW APPROACH TO THE PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

Xu Dao-yi, Huang Jian-fa, Wang Xiang-nan   

  1. Institute of Geology, State Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100029
  • Received:1990-05-31 Online:1991-09-04 Published:2009-11-25

摘要: 通过对中国大陆已发生的20个8级地震的研究,发现8级地震的发生具有一定的有序性,这种有序性表现在一些8级地震的发生有252年,94年,48年及25年的时间间隔,应用这种有序性可用来对中国大陆8级地震进行预报。

关键词: 有序性, 地震预报, 中国大陆, 地震迁移, 地震活跃期, 太极序列

Abstract: Some great earthquakes of magnitude 8 or greater on China mainland repeatedly occurred at the intervals of 252, 94, 48, and 25 years. It incited us to study the time interval between every pair of great earthquakes (M≥8) on China mainland. The result shows that there are four groups of clear orderliness distinguished in the most disorder distribution of earthquakes. The distinguished orderliness can be used to estimate the occurrence of next great earthquakes in China.

Key words: Orderliness, Earthquake prediction, China mainland, Earthquake migration, Seismo-active period, Taiji Sequence