地震地质 ›› 2006, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 447-455.

• 新技术应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

NCEP温度图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合作地震短临预测初探——以2003年7-8月3次西藏地震为例

马未宇1,2, 徐秀登2, 张行才2, 吴华锋2, 徐保华2   

  1. 1. 浙江大学, 杭州, 321000;浙江师范大学, 余华, 321004;
    2. 浙江师范大学, 余华, 321004
  • 收稿日期:2005-08-10 修回日期:2006-03-23 出版日期:2006-09-14 发布日期:2009-08-27
  • 作者简介:马未宇,男,1971年出生,浙江大学在职博士生,讲师,研究方向卫星遥感,电话:0579-2282300,E-mail:weiyuma@163.com.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(40172101)资助。

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE USE OF NCEP TEMPERATURE IMAGES AND ASTRO-TIDAL-TRIGGERING TO FORECAST SHORT-IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE

MA Wei-yu1,2, XU Xiu-deng2, ZHANG Xing-cai2, WU Hua-feng2, XU Bao-hua2   

  1. 1. Zhejiang university, Hangzhou 321000, China;
    2. Zhejiang normal university, Jinhua 321004, China
  • Received:2005-08-10 Revised:2006-03-23 Online:2006-09-14 Published:2009-08-27

摘要: 利用美国国家环境预测中心NCEP全球再分析资料的温度图像结合天体引潮力附加构造应力,对2003年5月以来的国内MS≥6.0、国外MS≥7.0的地震作了统计分析。以2004年7月12日-2004年8月25日间西藏地区3次地震为例得出如下认识:NCEP温度异常图像可以较好地反映短临地震构造活动时空演变过程;天体引潮力附加构造应力对地应力处于临界状态的活动断层具有明显的诱发作用;利用NCEP温度异常图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合进行地震短临预测是具有良好应用前景的新思路;西藏的3次地震均发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力周期相同的相位上,即天体引潮力附加构造应力变化达到相对稳定的峰值的末端,而不是发生在天体引潮力附加构造应力最大时刻,同时2003-2004年在西藏发生的其它震例中,地震发生在上述周期相同的相位,因此认为应当对其它区域更长时间更多的震例作这方面的进一步研究。

关键词: 潮汐应力附加构造应力, NCEP温度图像, 短临地震预测, 西藏

Abstract: Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Xizang of China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the MS≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and MS≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred in overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction of America with the astro-tidal-triggering and makes the following conclusions: The temperature abnormal image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-time evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The change of astro-tidal-triggering can better keep pace with the dynamic state of temperature abnormal images; The astro-tidal-triggering has an evident triggering effect on the active fault where the terrestrial stress is in critical status; It is a new thinking to use the NCEP images and the astro-tidal-triggering to forecast short-impending earthquake; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) additive tectonic stress cycle, i.e. occurring at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of peak, rather than the time when the variation rate was maximal. Meantime, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003-2004 in Xizang was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.

Key words: astro-tidal-triggering, NCEP temperature images, impending earthquake forecast, Xizang

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