关键词: 潮汐应力附加构造应力, NCEP温度图像, 短临地震预测, 西藏

Abstract: Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Xizang of China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred in overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction of America with the astro-tidal-triggering and makes the following conclusions: The temperature abnormal image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-time evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The change of astro-tidal-triggering can better keep pace with the dynamic state of temperature abnormal images; The astro-tidal-triggering has an evident triggering effect on the active fault where the terrestrial stress is in critical status; It is a new thinking to use the NCEP images and the astro-tidal-triggering to forecast short-impending earthquake; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) additive tectonic stress cycle, i.e. occurring at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of peak, rather than the time when the variation rate was maximal. Meantime, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003-2004 in Xizang was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.

Key words: astro-tidal-triggering, NCEP temperature images, impending earthquake forecast, Xizang