柯坪地电阻率在新疆南天山地震带中强地震前的响应

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2025.05.20240040

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆南天山地震带是中国中强地震的主要孕育区之一。为了增强该区域中强地震监测能力, 2013年在新疆南天山与塔里木盆地交会处建成柯坪地电阻率连续观测台站。 2018年以来, 周边400km共发生11次M_S≥5.0地震(不含余震和前震)。文中利用ERA5同化数据集中的土壤水分含量和土壤温度, 定量拟合了不同水热条件影响下地电阻率背景值, 在此基础上识别了偏离背景值的异常变化。结果显示, 自2018年以来, 柯坪台EW和NS 2个测道共识别到4次显著偏离背景趋势变化的下降变化, 基于断层虚位错模式和地电阻率各向异性变化分析认为, 柯坪台地电阻率变化与7次中强地震的孕震过程存在关联。以柯坪台EW测道电性结构为参考开展了数值模拟, 结果显示, 当测区介质电阻率下降10%时, 柯坪地电阻率EW测道观测值相较背景值变化1.05%若要被识别, 则电阻率发生变化的上界面需要至少上升至距地表243m深度处, 而这个深度完全可以被柯坪台的现有观测装置所探测。

关键词: 地电阻率, 土壤水分含量, 断层虚位错模式, 各向异性变化, 乌什M_S7.1地震

Abstract:

The south Tianshan area is one of the main moderate earthquake preparation areas in China. Apparent resistivity monitoring has been demonstrated as an effective approach for intermediate-to short-term earthquake forecasting, as validated by numerous documented seismic cases. To improve regional seismic monitoring networks and observe the spatial and temporal variations in the apparent resistivity of shallow crust caused by the seismic preparation process, the Keping apparent resistivity continuous observation station was built in 2013 at the junction of the Southern Tianshan Mountains and Tarim Basin by the Earthquake Agency of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The observation system at this station has operated stably, with consistent data variations and high accuracy in both measurement channels (the NS channel and EW channel) over the past ten years. According to the sensitivity theory, our analysis demonstrates that the annual variation pattern (summer decrease/winter increase) observed in both measurement channels at Keping station is consistent with negative surface influence coefficients. Eleven earthquakes (M_S≥5.0) occurred within 400km of the Keping station after 2018(aftershocks and foreshocks excluded), including two M6 and one M7 events. For qualitative analysis of the relationship between the seismogenic processes of earthquakes and the apparent resistivity variations observed at the Keping station, soil temperature and soil water content at different depths from the ERA5 assimilation datasets (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) were used to analyze the different hydrothermal condition effects on annual variation and to identify the anomalies from the background value by the interquartile range method. Our analysis of the fault virtual fault dislocation model and apparent resistivity anisotropy revealed four apparent resistivity decreases at Keping station, temporally correlated with the nucleation phases of seven M5.0+ earthquakes within a 250km radius during 2018-2024. Specifically, the rock experiment demonstrated that the resistivity of water-bearing rocks exhibits decreased variation under compressive stress. This finding is consistent with the decline changes at Keping Station, located within a compressive stress enhancement zone associated with the seismogenic process of the Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake in 2024 and the Jiashi M_S6.4 earthquake in 2020, respectively, revealed by the fault virtual fault dislocation model. Moreover, the anisotropic variations in apparent resistivity, as evidenced by experimental results, theoretical modeling, and seismic case studies, demonstrate a consistent pattern: the observed variation amplitude is maximized perpendicular to the direction of maximum principal compressive stress(σ₁), minimized parallel to σ₁, and exhibits intermediate values at oblique orientations. The focal mechanism solutions reveal that the principal compressive stress axes (P-axes) of all seven earthquakes are approximately N-S oriented, consistent with the deformation characteristics of the Keping thrust tectonic system. Furthermore, the angle between the EW channel and the principal compressive stress direction is consistently larger than that of the NS channel. Correspondingly, apparent resistivity variations in the EW direction at the Kalpin Station were consistently more pronounced than those in the NS direction, exhibiting clear anisotropic behavior. Therefore, based on the fault virtual fault dislocation model, rock physics experiment, and apparent resistivity anisotropic variation, the apparent resistivity anomalies of Keping station were proved to be associated with the seismogenic process of seven moderate earthquakes. Furthermore, simulation was carried out with reference of the electrical structure of the EW direction in Keping station, the underground medium resistivity of the EW direction in Keping station decreases by 10%, the change of apparent resistivity compared with the background value of 1.05%can be recognized, and the upper interface of the apparent resistivity change needs to rise to at least 243m above ground. Based on the electrode spacing configuration(current electrode spacing: 1 000m), this depth can be fully detected by the existing observation devices in the Keping station. This study provides both theoretical and practical support for identifying georesistivity anomalies at the Keping Station and enhancing regional seismic monitoring capabilities.

Key words: Apparent resistivity, soil water, virtual fault dislocation model, anisotropic variation, Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake

李新艳, 曾宪伟, 李蒙亚, 卫定军, 崔瑾. 柯坪地电阻率在新疆南天山地震带中强地震前的响应[J]. 地震地质, 2025, 47(5): 1438-1455.

LI Xin-yan, ZENG Xian-wei, LI Meng-ya, WEI Ding-jun, CUI Jin. APPARENT RESITIVITY VARIATION AT KEPING SEISMIC STATION BEFORE THE MODERATE EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTH TIANSHAN AREA, XINJIANG[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2025, 47(5): 1438-1455.

图/表 11

图 1 柯坪台周边断层及中强地震(不含前震和余震)分布图

Fig. 1 Distribution of fault zones and moderate-strong earthquakes(from 2018 to January 2024, delete foreshocks and aftershocks) around Keping station.

图 1 柯坪台周边断层及中强地震(不含前震和余震)分布图

Fig. 1 Distribution of fault zones and moderate-strong earthquakes(from 2018 to January 2024, delete foreshocks and aftershocks) around Keping station.

表 1 柯坪台周边MS≥5.0地震(不含前震和余震)的震源参数

Table 1 The seismic source parameters of earthquakes with MS≥5.0(delete foreshocks and aftershocks) around Keping station

序号	日期	地点	震中距 /km	震级 /M_S	震源深度 /km	节面Ⅰ			节面Ⅱ			P轴		来源
序号	日期	地点	震中距 /km	震级 /M_S	震源深度 /km	走向 /(°)	倾向 /(°)	滑动角 /(°)	走向 /(°)	倾向 /(°)	滑动角 /(°)	方位 /(°)	倾角 /(°)	来源
1	2018-09-04	新疆伽师	208	5.5	25.5	140	87	-174	50	84	-3	5	7	USGS
2	2019-10-27	新疆乌什	84	5	11	58	34	76	254	57	99	164	1	CENC
3	2020-01-19	新疆伽师	174	6.4	19.5	221	20	72	60	71	96	145	26	USGS
4	2020-05-09	新疆柯坪	43	5.2	20	72	53	55	301	49	127	184	6	CENC
5	2021-03-24	新疆拜城	223	5.4	11	341	75	180	71	90	15	205	6	CENC
6	2022-07-03	新疆阿合奇	95	5.2	12	45	55	98	212	36	79	164	3	CENC
7	2022-10-16	新疆巴楚	147	5.1	17	196	74	3	105	87	164	151	9	①
8	2023-01-30	新疆沙雅	281	6.1	40.5	257	79	29	155	62	167	20	11	USGS
9	2023-02-27	新疆温宿	174	5.1	10	245	61	1	155	89	158	202	14	①
10	2023-12-19	新疆阿图什	114	5.5	8	65	85	90	245	5	90	134	18	CENC
11	2024-01-23	新疆乌什	97	7.1	35.5	235	45	42	113	62	126	178	10	USGS

图 2 柯坪台测区布极图

Fig. 2 The distribution of Schlumberger arrays of Keping station.

图 3 柯坪台电测深曲线(a: EW向,b: NS向)和影响系数(c: EW向,d: NS向)

Fig. 3 The electrical sounding curve(Fig. 3a represents EW direction and 3b represents NS direction) and sensitivity coefficients(Fig. 3c represents the EW direction and 3d represents the NS direction) of the Keping station.

表 2 柯坪地电阻率两测道不同时期与土壤温度和土壤水分的相关系数及拟合残差统计特征、误差

Table2 Correlation coefficient between apparent resistivity vs. soil water content and apparent resistivity vs. soil temperature, and the statistical characteristics and errors of fitting residue

测道	时段	土壤水分与地电阻率				土壤温度与地电阻率				拟合残差
测道	时段	swvl1	swvl2	swvl3	swvl4	stl1	stl2	stl3	stl4	偏度	峰度	RMSE
NS	P1	-0.09	0.67^*	-0.43^*	-0.62^*	0.71	0.78	0.88^*	0.86^*	0.49	-0.63	0.17
	P2	-0.42^*	0.72^*	-0.53^*	-0.47^*	0.76	0.82^*	0.90^*	0.81
	P3	-0.15	-0.24	-0.52^*	-0.53^*	0.82	0.88^*	0.94^*	0.80
EW	P1	-0.19	0.68^*	-0.37^*	-0.64^*	0.75	0.82	0.93^*	0.89^*	-0.58	-0.39	0.19
	P2	-0.35^*	0.78^*	-0.40^*	-0.41^*	0.81	0.86^*	0.91^*	0.76
	P3	-0.19	-0.20	-0.55^*	-0.66^*	0.73	0.82	0.93*	0.90^*

图 4 柯坪台NS测道(上)和EW测道(下)地电阻率实测值、背景值及与不同层土壤水分和土壤温度(归一化)的对比 ①2018-09-04新疆伽师 MS5.5, Δ=208km; ② 2019-10-27新疆乌什 MS5.0, Δ=84km; ③2020-01-19新疆伽师 MS6.4, Δ=174km; ④2020-05-09新疆柯坪 MS5.2, Δ=43km; ⑤2021-03-24 新疆拜城 MS5.4, Δ=223km; ⑥2023-12-19新疆阿图什 MS5.5, Δ=114km; ⑦2019-10-27新疆乌什 MS7.1, Δ=97km

Fig. 4 Comparison curves of measured values, background values, soil water content(normalized), and fitting residue curves of the Keping stations.

图 5 2024年乌什MS7.1 地震(a)和2020年伽师 MS6.4 地震(b)前断层虚位错模式计算的体应变

Fig. 5 The volume strain calculated by the virtual fault dislocation model before the Wushi MS7.1 earthquake(a) and Jiashi MS6.4 earthquake(b).

图 6 柯坪台地电阻率各向异性变化

Fig. 6 Apparent resistivity anisotropic variation of the Keping station.

图 7 柯坪台EW测道数值模拟电性结构设计

Fig. 7 The design and simulation of electricity structure at the Keping station.

图 8 柯坪台EW测道地下介质变化上界面位置与地电阻率变化的关系

Fig. 8 The relationship between the upper interface of underground medium changes and apparent resistivity at the Keping station.

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