关键词: 缅甸M_S7.9地震, 实皆断裂, 走滑断裂, 滑动速率亏损, 库仑应力

Abstract:

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, an M_S7.9 earthquake(hereafter referred to as the Myanmar earthquake)struck the Mandalay region of Myanmar(21.85°N, 95.95°E)on March 28, 2025, at a focal depth of 30km. The earthquake occurred along the central segment of the Sagaing Fault and was characterized by a right-lateral strike-slip rupture, generating a ~350km-long surface rupture zone with a maximum coseismic horizontal displacement of 6 meters. The event caused extensive damage to buildings and varying degrees of destruction to infrastructure, including roads and bridges.
Situated in a critical tectonic region where the Indian Plate obliquely converges with the Eurasian Plate, the Myanmar earthquake offers valuable insights into plate boundary deformation processes. Detailed analysis of this event enhances our understanding of the deformation mechanisms along the Myanmar plate boundary and provides essential constraints for seismic hazard assessment along the southeastern margin of the Eurasian Plate. This research holds scientific significance for elucidating continental lithospheric deformation in response to oblique plate convergence. The findings contribute to regional early warning strategies and disaster mitigation efforts and offer a valuable reference for seismic risk studies in comparable tectonic settings worldwide.
This study integrates Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)data from across the Sagaing Fault region, establishing a comprehensive GNSS velocity field for Myanmar and addressing previous gaps in coverage along the fault’s southern segment. Using multiscale spherical wavelet analysis and GNSS velocity profiles, we examine the deformation characteristics of the region. We calculate the slip rate deficit distribution along the Sagaing Fault and assess postseismic Coulomb stress changes. Combined with historical seismicity data, we investigate the seismogenic structure and stress perturbations in surrounding areas. The key findings are as follows:
(1)The Myanmar M_S7.9 earthquake was a right-lateral strike-slip event along the central Sagaing fault. The region is affected by the northeastward oblique convergence of the Indian Plate and southeastward extrusion of crustal material from the Tibetan plateau, resulting in strong north-south shear and east-west shortening. The Sagaing fault accommodates most of this deformation, with a rapid right-lateral slip rate of approximately 21~22mm/a.
(2)High-resolution GNSS velocity profiles indicate significant fault locking at depths of 15~25km along the Sagaing Fault. The slip rate deficit analysis reveals a high locking ratio across the fault, indicating elevated seismic potential. Notably, the central segment shows lower seismic moment accumulation compared to the northern and southern segments, forming a ~300km-long seismic gap since 1900, capable of generating earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7.5.
(3)Coulomb stress modeling suggests that the earthquake significantly altered the regional stress field. Stress accumulation zones were identified at both ends of the Sagaing fault and in the central Shan Plateau to the east. These regions of increased stress transfer and loading exhibit heightened potential for future large earthquakes, underscoring the need for enhanced seismic monitoring.

Key words: Myanmar M_S7.9 earthquake, Sagaing Fault, strike-slip fault, slip rate deficit, Coulomb stress