Abstract: In this paper,we introduce a method which can be used to determine the gradient of vertical deformation rates and discuss the relation between the gradients of deformation rates and tectonic and seismic activities.Using the digital results from the map of present-day vertical deformation rates in China,we draw a contour diagram of the horizontal gradients of vertical deformation rates in China.A comparison between the zones with high gradient of deformation rates and the locations of strong earthquakes is made and the possible high-risk areas of strong earthquakes in the coming twenty years are also pointed out.

Key words: Earthquake, Vertical deformation rate gradient, Strong earthquake risk area

摘要： 应用确定形变速率梯度值的方法,探讨了速率梯度与构造活动、地震活动的关系。利用《中国现代地壳垂直形变速度图》经数字化处理后,给出了中国现代垂直形变速率水平梯度等值线图,将高形变速率梯度区与强震发生地点进行了对比,并指示出了未来10～20a的内强震潜在危险区。

关键词: 垂直形变速率梯度, 强震危险区, 地震