2025年1月7日西藏定日MS6.8强震发震断层三维模型与地震构造环境

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2025.03.20250030

地震地质 ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 671-688.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2025.03.20250030

2025年1月7日西藏定日M_S6.8强震发震断层三维模型与地震构造环境

郭钊吾¹⁾(), 鲁人齐¹⁾^,^*(), 张金玉¹⁾, 房立华²⁾, 刘冠伸¹⁾, 吴熙彦¹⁾, 孙晓¹⁾, 祁诗淼¹⁾

1)中国地震局地质研究所, 地震动力学与强震预测全国重点实验室, 北京 100029
2)中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036

收稿日期:2025-01-25 修回日期:2025-02-10 出版日期:2025-06-20 发布日期:2025-08-13
通讯作者: *鲁人齐, 男, 1982年生, 研究员, 博士生导师, 长期从事活动构造与三维建模研究, E-mail: lurenqi@163.com。
作者简介:
郭钊吾, 男, 1996年生, 现为中国地震局地质研究所构造地质学专业在读博士研究生, 主要从事活动构造三维建模研究, E-mail: gzwrdzs@126.com。
基金资助:
西藏拉萨地球物理国家野外科学观测研究站研究课题(NORSLS21-01)

THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF SEISMOGENIC FAULT AND SEISMIC ENVIRONMENT OF XIZANG DINGRI M_S6.8 EARTHQUAKE OF JANUARY 7, 2025

GUO Zhao-wu¹⁾(), LU Ren-qi¹⁾^,^*(), ZHANG Jin-yu¹⁾, FANG Li-hua²⁾, LIU Guan-shen¹⁾, WU Xi-yan¹⁾, SUN Xiao¹⁾, QI Shi-miao¹⁾

1)State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China
2)Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China

Received:2025-01-25 Revised:2025-02-10 Online:2025-06-20 Published:2025-08-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2025年1月7日, 西藏定日县发生 M_S6.8 强震, 造成126人死亡, 最大烈度达Ⅸ度, 引起广泛关注。定日 M_S6.8 地震的震中位于登么错断裂附近, 初步推断该断裂为发震断裂。文中根据公开获取的地表地质调查结果、余震重定位和震源机制解数据, 基于SKUA-GOCAD三维建模平台, 构建了登么错断裂的三维几何模型, 揭示了定日 M_S6.8 强震发震断层在三维空间展布的几何学特征。研究表明, 登么错断裂具有明显的几何分段性, 断裂的几何结构和地震活动在空间中的分布具有一定的关联性。此次地震的主震发生在登么错断裂(P3段)三维结构突变的位置(断层面呈向东凸出的弧形), 该地震的孕育和发生可能与断层面复杂的几何结构有关。震中所处的藏南地区深部发育大型拆离层, 登么错断裂为上陡下缓的铲式正断层, 断层底部在上地壳拆离层下方消失, 并未进一步向下延伸, 属于藏南地区浅部正断层系统, 此次地震是浅部正断层应力释放的结果。通过Coulomb 3.4程序计算得到不同深度的库仑应力变化表明: 登么错断裂南段、藏南滑脱拆离系断裂中段、申扎-定结断裂南段、雅鲁藏布江断裂中段、达吉岭-昂仁-仁布断裂中段处于震后应力加载状态。因此, 建议对余震进行监测和开展地震危险性分析时重点关注上述区域。文中刻画了三维发震断裂模型, 初步分析了发震构造, 为该区域孕震环境以及地震危险性评估提供了依据与参考。

关键词: 定日M_S6.8强震, 震源机制, 发震构造, 三维断层模型, 库仑应力分析

Abstract:

At 09:05a.m. on January 7, 2025, a magnitude M_S6.8 earthquake struck Dingri County, Xizang, China, resulting in 126 fatalities and a maximum seismic intensity of Ⅸ. Occurring within a seismically active and tectonically complex region, this event drew significant attention from both the scientific community and the public. The epicenter was located near the Dengmecuo Fault, which has been preliminarily identified as the seismogenic fault.

This study utilized publicly available geological survey data, aftershock relocations, and focal mechanism solutions to construct a detailed three-dimensional geometric model of the Dengmecuo Fault. The model was developed using the SKUA-GOCAD 3D modeling platform, enabling a comprehensive analysis of the fault’s geometry. Results reveal pronounced geometric segmentation along the fault plane, with the spatial distribution of these structural features closely correlating with observed seismicity, highlighting the influence of fault geometry on earthquake generation.

The M_S6.8 Dingri earthquake occurred near a prominent structural irregularity on the Dengmecuo Fault, at point P3, where the fault plane bends into an eastward-projecting arc. This three-dimensional structural mutation likely played a role in the nucleation of the event, underscoring the relationship between fault complexity and seismic rupture. The Dengmecuo Fault, situated in the southern Tibetan plateau, is a listric normal fault characterized by a steep upper section and a gentler lower section that terminates within a detachment layer in the upper crust. It does not extend into the deeper lithosphere, indicating that it is part of the region’s shallow normal fault system. The earthquake is interpreted as the release of accumulated stress along this shallow fault structure.

To evaluate post-earthquake stress transfer and seismic hazard, Coulomb stress modeling(Coulomb 3.4)was conducted. The analysis indicates that several regional faults are now in a state of increased Coulomb stress, including the southern segment of the Dengmecuo Fault, the middle segment of the south Xizang detachment system, the southern segment of the Shenzha-Dingjie Fault, the central Yarlung-Zangbo Fault, and the midsection of the Dajiling-Angren-Renbu Fault. These fault segments are identified as potential sites for future seismic activity and merit heightened monitoring.

This study presents a detailed characterization of the three-dimensional geometry of the seismogenic fault responsible for the Dingri M_S6.8 earthquake and offers a preliminary analysis of regional seismogenic structures. The findings provide valuable insights into the tectonic setting of southern Xizang and contribute to the assessment of regional seismic hazard.

Key words: Dingri M_S6.8 Earthquake, focal mechanism solution, seismic structure, Three-Dimensional fault model, Coulomb stress analysis

郭钊吾, 鲁人齐, 张金玉, 房立华, 刘冠伸, 吴熙彦, 孙晓, 祁诗淼. 2025年1月7日西藏定日M_S6.8强震发震断层三维模型与地震构造环境[J]. 地震地质, 2025, 47(3): 671-688.

GUO Zhao-wu, LU Ren-qi, ZHANG Jin-yu, FANG Li-hua, LIU Guan-shen, WU Xi-yan, SUN Xiao, QI Shi-miao. THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF SEISMOGENIC FAULT AND SEISMIC ENVIRONMENT OF XIZANG DINGRI M_S6.8 EARTHQUAKE OF JANUARY 7, 2025[J]. SEISMOLOGY AND GEOLOGY, 2025, 47(3): 671-688.

图/表 9

图1 2025年1月7日西藏定日地震区域地震构造图 TP 青藏高原, AB 阿穆尔地块, OB 鄂尔多斯地块, NCB 华北地块, SCB 华南地块, SCS 南海。图1a所示白框为图1b范围

Fig. 1 Map showing tectonic background of Dingri earthquake of January 7, 2025, Xizang.

图2 研究区历史强震(M≥5)、余震重定位分布及地震烈度图不同颜色的小球代表不同的地震等级, 绿色小球代表双差定位的余震数据(据房立华, 私人通讯); 沙滩球代表地震的震源机制解 ① , 为上半球投影; 红色实线代表断层, 紫色实线代表InSAR解译地震断层 ② 。粉色和橘红色覆盖区域为地震烈度分布范围 ③

Fig. 2 Distribution of historical strong earthquakes(M≥5), aftershock relocation, and seismic intensity in the study area.

表1 不同研究机构反演得到的定日 MS6.8 地震的震源机制解

Table 1 The focal mechanism solutions for Dingri MS6.8 earthquake by different institutions

发震时间	北纬 /(°)	东经 /(°)	节面Ⅰ/(°)			节面Ⅱ/(°)			M_W	矩心深度 /km	产出机构
发震时间	北纬 /(°)	东经 /(°)	走向	倾角	滑动角	走向	倾角	滑动角	M_W	矩心深度 /km	产出机构
2025-01-07	28.5	87.45	334.00	71.0	-100.00	182.00	22.0	64.00	6.9	13	CENC
2025-01-07	28.5	87.45	346.00	49.0	-95.00	174.00	42.0	-85.00	7.0	10	IGCEA
2025-01-07	28.56	87.47	349.00	42.0	-103.00	187.00	49.0	-78.00	7.1	11.5	USGS
2025-01-07	28.56	87.33	151.00	56.0	-116.00	12.00	41.0	-56.00	7.1	14	GFZ
2025-01-07	28.63	87.36	196.00	44.0	-640.00	341.00	51.0	-113.00	7.2	14	IPGP
2025-01-07	28.76	87.49	189.33	52.8	-95.75				7.17	7.9	CDUT

图3 定日 MS6.8 地震震源机制解 a CENC计算结果; b IGCEA计算结果; c USGS计算结果; d GFZ计算结果; e IPGP计算结果; f CDUT计算结果

Fig. 3 The focal mechanism solution graphs for Dingri MS6.8 earthquake.

图4 定日震区可视化三维工区与数据加载 a 研究区三维工区, 紫色实线代表InSAR解释地震断层, 红色实线代表地质调查地震地表迹线; b 定日地震余震深度分布统计柱状图, 小球代表震后5d内的余震(来自房立华团队)

Fig. 4 Perspective view of the 3D modelling platform and loaded data in Dingri earthquake region.

图5 发震断层精细三维几何模型 a 发震断层深度三维模型, 紫色小球代表余震数据; b 断层倾角三维模型; c 断层走向三维模型。紫色实线代表InSAR解释地震断层, 红色实线代表地质调查地震地表迹线; 沙滩球为震源机制解, 红色沙滩球为2025年定日地震的震源机制解。

Fig. 5 Detailed 3D geometric model of the seismogenic fault.

图6 登么错断裂三维模型与分段特性紫色小球代表余震, 红色小球代表2020年 MW5.7 地震, 蓝色小球代表2025年1月7日定日地震; 不同颜色的断层面代表登么错断层的分段; 灰色实线代表深度等值线

Fig. 6 Segment characteristics of the Dengmecuo Fault.

图7 藏南裂谷系深部结构与地震分布特征分析 a 深度域接收函数剖面 ① , 位置见图1b; 黑色虚线代表藏南滑脱拆离系底界面(STD), 黄色虚线代表印度板块俯冲地壳顶界面的喜马拉雅逆冲断裂带(MHT), 灰蓝色虚线代表莫霍面(Moho), 灰色实线代表浅层正断层, 蓝色虚线代表推测深大断裂。b EW向跨藏南裂谷系震源深度及震源机制解投影剖面(高扬等, 2024), 位置见图1a, 黄色圆圈代表裂谷中M≥5的地震。COR 错那-沃卡裂谷; BWR 普兰-文布当桑裂谷; DXR 定结-申扎裂谷; GTR 岗嘎-当惹雍错裂谷; JGR 江曲藏布-改则裂谷; NCR 聂拉木-措勤裂谷; YGR 亚东-谷露裂谷; ZTR 仲巴-塔若错裂谷

Fig. 7 Deep structure of the south Tibetan rifting system.

图8 2025年1月7日定日 MS6.8 地震同震库仑应力变化 a 深度5km; b 深度10km; c 深度15km; d 深度20km。红色五角星代表定日 MS6.8 地震, 绿色实线代表登么错断裂, 黑色实线代表该区域内其他断裂

Fig. 8 Coulomb stress changes associated with the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake of January 7, 2025.

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2025年1月7日西藏定日M_S6.8强震发震断层三维模型与地震构造环境

THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF SEISMOGENIC FAULT AND SEISMIC ENVIRONMENT OF XIZANG DINGRI M_S6.8 EARTHQUAKE OF JANUARY 7, 2025

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2025年1月7日西藏定日MS6.8强震发震断层三维模型与地震构造环境

THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF SEISMOGENIC FAULT AND SEISMIC ENVIRONMENT OF XIZANG DINGRI MS6.8 EARTHQUAKE OF JANUARY 7, 2025

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2025年1月7日西藏定日M_S6.8强震发震断层三维模型与地震构造环境

THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF SEISMOGENIC FAULT AND SEISMIC ENVIRONMENT OF XIZANG DINGRI M_S6.8 EARTHQUAKE OF JANUARY 7, 2025